Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a long two-month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending Champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu, and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into the day’s featured play.
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Mirra Andreeva Moneyline
(+120, 2 Units, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mirra Andreeva is 22-2 this season, and while much of that success has come at ITF level, she is 8-1 at WTA level. That loss was against Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid, following her three consecutive top-50 wins over Leylah Fernandez, Beatriz Haddad Maia, and Magda Linette. The latter two were both top-20 wins for the newly turned 16-year-old. Now, Andreeva needed to go through qualifying to make the French Open main draw, as her ranking was outside the top 300 at the time of the cut off in mid-April. All she has done is win her three qualifying matches and first two main draw matches, five in total at the event, without dropping a set. In fact, nobody has won more than 10 games against her, and she’s dropped 23 total games over five matches. All that said, Coco Gauff will certainly represent a jump in level of competition from what she has seen at Roland Garros (Polina Kudermetova, Emiliana Arango, Camila Osorio, Alison Riske and Diane Parry), but let’s talk about Coco Gauff, and why she has been overvalued throughout 2023.
Gauff’s 2022 season ended miserably, in what should have been a positive conclusion, qualifying for the WTA Finals. Instead, Gauff got swept in Fort Worth, then flew to London to play Billie Jean King Cup, representing USA, and lost that match, for a five-match losing streak to end 2022. She ended up winning a title in Auckland to begin 2023, though her best win in that run was over World No. 60 Danka Kovinic. There were mixed results following that title, eventually leading to a split with her coach Diego Moyano after the Miami Open in March. Since Indian Wells, Gauff is just 7-4 and she doesn’t have a top-50 win, with all four losses coming inside the top 50. Now, Andreeva is not a top-50 player, at least on paper, as her world ranking sits at No. 143, but this is a skilled young player, who is comfortable off both wings, and moves exceptionally well on the clay, and with the way she is playing, it won’t be long until her ranking reaches that mark. Gauff’s forehand, which has let her down throughout her career, has been an absolute disaster in 2023. In her loss to Ana Potapova in Stuttgart, Gauff posted over 50 unforced errors, with at least 40 coming off her forehand. Andreeva is going to target that wing as often as she can.
Lastly, I can’t overestimate how important the first set will be. Andreeva is 53-2 in her short career when she wins the opening set, including 8-0 at WTA level. Coco Gauff is 2-25 since the start of last season when she drops the opening set. Gauff is a fantastic frontrunner, but if she falls behind, her confidence drops, and the match can get away from her quickly. Gauff’s serve will be neutralized by the conditions, thus forcing rallies against a very good counterpuncher in Andreeva. I liked Andreeva heading into this matchup, and while I had been expecting her to open in the +145 range, I’m perfectly fine with the +120 number, as a -135 line on Gauff in this matchup has me believing books are looking for action on Gauff.
