Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The tennis offseason seems to get shorter and shorter each year. After a five-week absence, the greatest gambling sport in the world returns with the summer Down Under. 2023 saw Novak Djokovic reclaim his throne as World No. 1, winning three of four Grand Slam titles, as well as the ATP Finals, among others. 2023 also saw Iga Swiatek defend her Roland Garros title, in addition to retaining her year-end World No. 1 ranking. Three new Grand Slam champions were crowned in Aryna Sabalenka, Marketa Vondrousova and Coco Gauff, while the ATP side was treated to its first Alcaraz/Djokovic Slam Final.
Now, we move on to 2024, where the ATP will see Rafael Nadal return for what appears to be his swan song, while the WTA will welcome back Naomi Osaka, Angelique Kerber, Amanda Anisimova and Emma Raducanu, as well as full schedules for Caroline Wozniacki and Jennifer Brady, who returned at the tail end of 2023. So, let’s take a look at what to expect in the new season.
ATP
Undervalued
Jack Draper
We’ll discuss a trio of men and women I view as likely to be undervalued as well as overvalued by oddsmakers heading into the new season. We begin with Jack Draper, who spent most of the 2023 season on the shelf with injuries. Draper looked primed to upset Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open to kick off what was expected to be his breakthrough season, only for the extreme conditions to effectively take him out of the match. Nadal ultimately lost in the following round and never returned in 2023. Draper’s lengthy absence began following Roland Garros, ultimately returning just before the US Open. It was at the US Open where he made his first Slam fourth round. With his ranking remaining outside the top 100, he dropped down to Challengers to end his season, making a final in Orleans, then taking home the Bergamo title, before finishing 2023 in Sofia, where he made his maiden ATP final, losing to Adrian Mannarino. While much of that late season success came indoors, it was a reminder of just how talented the Brit is. While his Achilles heel will remain his fitness, I’ll be buying Draper in Australia despite the most extreme conditions imaginable throughout the entire Tour season. Draper at least proved he can handle difficult conditions at the US Open, and perhaps a different offseason training program will put him in a better position to succeed physically. Once the Tour shifts out of Australia, Draper should spend much of the winter indoors, and if the end of 2023 taught us anything, it’s to believe in Jack Draper’s talent. If Draper can stay on the court all season, he’s going to make a run at year end British No. 1.
Marin Cilic
Perhaps a forgotten name on the ATP Tour, Marin Cilic should be returning at the start of the 2024 season after undergoing knee surgery in early 2023. Cilic suffered the injury in his very first match of the season, keeping him sidelined until late July, where he managed just one match before suffering a setback in practice shortly after, ultimately shutting his season down. Not only is Cilic expected to be 100% at the start of 2024, but in the clips he has posted from his training sessions, he looks as fit as he has in quite some time. Now, a 35-year-old returning from knee surgery is probably a bit of a red flag, but it’s easy to forget the Croatian had been playing some of his best tennis in years prior to the injury. Since the Moscow event in 2021, Cilic compiled a 42-23 record, which included a Roland Garros semifinal in 2022. You might forget that Cilic, an excellent grass court player, was forced out of Wimbledon in 2022 due to Covid. While the extended absence from Cilic may result in some early match rust, I actually anticipate his best tennis to come early in the season with fresh legs, before fading as the year drags on, likely hitting a wall following what I anticipate to be another successful grass court season.
Sebastian Korda
2023 was a disappointing season for Korda, and I say that despite there being quite a bit of positives. So why disappointing? It felt like 2023 was primed to be a breakthrough season for Korda, but a pair of injuries really killed any momentum Korda has built. The American started off his season with a final in Adelaide, losing to Novak Djokovic, as well as an Australian Open quarterfinal, where he suffered a wrist injury, ultimately sidelining him until the Madrid Masters. Given how tricky wrist injuries can be (see Dominic Thiem), it wasn’t surprising to see Korda struggle upon returning, as looked quite awful in a four-match sample on clay courts. Korda then found some form at Queen’s Club, reaching the semifinals, and while the rest of his grass court season didn’t go as well, he did reach the Winston-Salem semifinals in the US Open Series, but he did not play that round due to an ankle injury, which additionally impacted his US Open given the quick turnaround. Korda did however end his season in a positive way, making the Zhuhai semifinals, Astana final, and Shanghai Masters semifinals. After going 3-8 versus top-10 opponents prior to 2023, Korda finished the season 3-2 in that split. While the likes of Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul have been the American leaders on the ATP Tour over the last few years, it’s Korda and Ben Shelton who have the most promising long-term aspirations, and Korda, who is the lowest-ranked player of that entire group, seems to be the one who is also forgotten by oddsmakers, while arguably carrying the most talent.
Overvalued
Carlos Alcaraz
Nobody can deny Carlos Alcarez’s talent, and there’s nothing to suggest his level will dip anytime soon. That said, he went just 18-8 following his Wimbledon title, and while a 69% win rate may sound outstanding, it’s certainly not up to the standard Alcaraz has set for himself over the last couple years. He looked awfully average during the US Open series as well, needing three sets in five of his six wins prior to the US Open. He struggled mightily at the tail end of the season, upon his return from what was described as a plantar fasciitis issue. That can be a nagging injury with lasting effects for several months, if not years. He did look closer to his usual self at the ATP Finals, and I’m sure some rest in the offseason will help him a great deal. To begin 2024 however, I am going to look at ways to fade the Spaniard, who should carry massive game spreads. It’s also worth noting Alcaraz did not play the summer Down Under last season due to injury, so how will his body respond to those extreme conditions? Post Australia, my best guess is Alcaraz goes back to the Golden Swing and then Acapulco (assuming that event takes place) before the Sunshine Double. On clay, I’m less likely to fade Alcaraz, simply because nobody on the ATP Tour moves better on clay than he does, but the Alcaraz fade train will be up and running again during grass season, as I believe regression is very possible on what is easily his worst surface, despite being the reigning Wimbledon champion.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
We started to see oddsmakers give Tsitsipas less respect in the latter half of 2023, but the fact of the matter is that he has seen zero progression off his backhand wing, and it has bled into his entire game. 2021 is beginning to look like an outlier, as the 25.5% break rate he ended that season with, has never been above 21.5% in any other season on the ATP Tour. Tsitsipas additionally posted a career worst win rate against Top 50 opponents last season at 55%, with his previous career worst having been 59% in 2020. Defending 1,200 points at the Australian Open, Tsitsipas will face some pressure of retaining a chunk of that 1,200 points, as even a second-round exit could potentially knock him out of the top 10 heading into the European indoor swing. He will play in the United Cup to kick off his season once again, scheduled to face Nicolas Jarry and Felix Auger-Aliassime, both of whom will be very live underdogs.
Ben Shelton
Lastly, it pains me to do it, but we’re going to learn a lot about Ben Shelton early in 2024, and I would prefer to exclusively fade him until he proves me wrong. Shelton’s 2023 season was one of the strangest I can remember on either Tour in quite some time. The former Gator went into 2023 having never left the United States to playing in the Australian Open quarterfinals. Following his magical run Down Under, Shelton went 9-19 through the Cincinnati Masters, failing to win back-to-back matches, while going 0-7 versus top 25, 2-9 versus top 50 and 6-16 versus top 100 opponents. He did hire his father (who coached him at Florida) as his full-time coach in early June, right at the start of the grass court season, and something clicked in New York, where Shelton not only looked like the player who made the Australian Open quarterfinals but looked significantly better as well. Shelton went on to make the US Open semifinals, as well as taking home his maiden ATP title in Tokyo, closing out the season 13-4, going 4-2 against Top 25 opponents. My concern heading into 2024 is, does Shelton’s success come from streaky patterns, or was reuniting with his father the winning formula? Shelton’s peripherals from the US Open through the end of the season were actually worse than to begin 2023 through Miami, so there’s reason to believe regression may hit the American in a significant way.
End-of-2024 Top 10
- Novak Djokovic
- Jannik Sinner
- Daniil Medvedev
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Alexander Zverev
- Holger Rune
- Andrey Rublev
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Sebastian Korda
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely to Be Unseeded at US Open
Taylor Fritz
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Jakob Mensik
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Matteo Berrettini
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Christopher Eubanks
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Novak Djokovic
We are heading into 2024, and the ATP is still very much run by Novak Djokovic. The tennis community can endlessly praise Rafael Nadal’s success at Roland Garros, but sometimes I think Djokovic’s success Down Under needs an equal amount of recognition. The Serbian has now won the event each of his last four appearances, as well as nine of his last 12. Of his three losses, there are documented injury issues in two (2017 versus Istomin and 2018 versus Chung). Let’s also not ignore that en route to his last two Australian Open titles, Djokovic suffered (and played through) a 2.5cm abdominal tear (2021) and a torn hamstring (2023). His competition is getting fiercer, but nobody has proven to be up to the task of matching his level in such extreme conditions, and I’m unwilling to bet against that changing anytime soon.
Sleeper: Sebastian Korda
French Open
Pick: Rafael Nadal
Everything I have heard this offseason is that Nadal does not look to be trending towards retirement, because his level looks as good as it ever has. That’s certainly a positive sign, but I would also like to see how his body holds up in actual matches. I also do not anticipate Nadal to be preparing to peak anywhere before the clay court season begins, as he looks to manage his body more than ever. Currently, Nadal carries a +500 (ESPN) number to win the French Open, which to my knowledge, is as long as he’s been since 2015, a year in which he really struggled to regain form after offseason appendix surgery. Let’s not forget this man is 112-3 all time at Roland Garros and the only active player to beat him at this event is Novak Djokovic. While Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Holger Rune may be legitimate threats, as long as Nadal is healthy, he’s going to be considered the favorite to win his 15th Roland Garros title.
Sleeper: Holger Rune
Wimbledon
Pick: Novak Djokovic
There are three possibilities here. One is that Djokovic does not win the Australian Open or the French Open, and he heads to London without a Slam in 2024, with bad memories of how his 2023 run ended. The second possibility is Djokovic wins one of the two previous Slams in 2024 and has an opportunity to avenge his 2023 finals loss. The third is Djokovic is halfway to a calendar Slam. Heading into the 2023 Wimbledon Championships, Novak Djokovic had won four consecutive Wimbledon titles, and it took an absolute masterclass from Carlos Alcaraz to snap Djokovic’s 45 match Centre Court win streak, in addition to handing Djokovic his first loss in 79 tries at the Championships when the Serbian had won the opening set. If he wins, Djokovic would tie Roger Federer with eight Wimbledon Championships, and you best believe that is where he will find the motivation to take home yet another trophy at the All England Club.
Sleeper: Marin Cilic
Paris Olympics
Pick: Rafael Nadal
One big reason Nadal has been so adamant about returning this season is to play the Paris Olympics. It is very likely going to be his final opportunity to play at the Olympics, and it is the first Olympic event he will partake in that will be played on clay. While I would suspect Nadal continues his career into 2025 with a successful (and healthy) 2024 season, I truly cannot think of a better way for Nadal to conclude his career than by winning a gold medal and hearing the Spanish National Anthem play on the court he has dominated the entire ATP Tour on for the last two decades. Much like I alluded to above when discussing the French Open, as long as Nadal is healthy heading into the Olympics, he is the favorite to win what would be his third career gold medal. That said, there will be more risk in best of three and while he is my far too early pick to win, he will be a very interesting round-to-round fade come July.
Sleeper: Nicolas Jarry
US Open
Pick: Jannik Sinner
Lastly, the US Open has generally been the most likely Slam for an outsider to win his maiden Slam. Now, is it fair to call Jannik Sinner, who could very well be in the year-end World No. 1 conversation an outsider? Probably not. However, given the Italian’s track record with failing to physically hold up over the best of five format, he certainly earns that billing until he does indeed win a Slam. Heading into 2024, there’s only one possible opponent I can confidently say can be considered a favorite over Jannik Sinner in a best of five, and that is Novak Djokovic. Sinner has found the winning formula against both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, and while he took two of three from Djokovic at the tail end of 2023, both wins saw Sinner finish with a Dominance Ratio below 0.90. We should see Sinner build off an incredible 2023 season, and by the US Open, I suspect Sinner finds the right formula to finally beat Djokovic in the best of five format, assuming the two even cross paths in New York.
Sleeper: Ben Shelton
WTA
Undervalued
Qinwen Zheng
Aug. 11, 2022, I tweeted “Qinwen Zheng is going to win a Slam by the end of 2024.” Well, it’s now or never for Zheng, who will begin 2024 at her career-high ranking of No. 15. Zheng is someone who is capable of peaking on any surface. As a junior, she was most comfortable on clay, but with her serve and power off both wings, she is very well suited for quicker surfaces. My biggest fear with Zheng is that she hasn’t shown much progression against Top 50 opponents in her first two seasons on Tour. She went 9-10 in 2022, then just 17-18 in 2023, but did win seven of her last eight in that split. That certainly leaves some room for optimism heading into 2024. Where Zheng did vastly improve was in the split outside the Top 50, as she was 30-9 in 2022 and 20-1 in 2023. Given the success Zheng had at the tail end of 2023 against Top 50 players, I’m buying some stock early in 2024, when I expect Zheng to remain overlooked by oddsmakers.
Amanda Anisimova
While the entire tennis world may be ready to give up on Amanda Anisimova, I am not quite ready to do so. If we want to talk about a career that has provided an endless number of roadblocks, we’d talk about Anisimova. The 2017 US Open Girls Champion made quite an impact as a professional in late 2018, making her maiden WTA final in Hiroshima as a qualifier. She then made the second week at the Australian Open to begin 2019, defeating Lesia Tsurenko and Aryna Sabalenka, before falling to Petra Kvitova in the fourth round. That was just the beginning however, as Anisimova made the Roland Garros semifinals, finding herself just 10 points away from her maiden Slam final, ultimately losing to Ashleigh Barty. From there it appeared as if Anisimova was the next big teenage superstar in the making. Shortly after, her father — who coached her since childhood — passed away, forcing her to pull out of the US Open. Anisimova admitted she struggled mentally without her father coaching her, and she played a bit of musical chairs as far as finding a new coach. Of course, COVID-19 hit the following season as well. Her struggles on and off court extended through 2021, before she seemingly found the right partnership with Darren Cahill in the winter of 2021. That partnership had an immediate impact, with Anisimova winning the Melbourne 2 event to kick off 2022. She then defeated Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka en route to the fourth round at the Australian Open, where she lost to Ashleigh Barty, the eventual champion. Shortly after, Cahill abruptly left the Anisimova team. It was yet another mental roadblock for the American, whose 2022 season ended at the US Open with a stress fracture in her foot. In 2023, it was clear Anisimova just wasn’t right mentally, and at the start of the clay season, decided to take a break from tennis, opting to enroll in college for the fall semester. Anisimova is back in 2024 however, and from what I have been told, she is in a good headspace. She has been practicing since July and will have Darren Cahill back with her team in Australia, as well as at any tournament Jannik Sinner (who Cahill primarily coaches) is playing as well. There’s no denying the American’s talent, and there were serious improvements with her serve and forehand at times in 2022. She has one of, if not the best backhand in the women’s game, and she moves as well as anyone on clay. Given the lengthy absence and poor form prior to her break, there’s no doubt oddsmakers will be down on Anisimova in 2024, but I still believe in the talent, and I suspect she peaks right in time for clay season.
Naomi Osaka
Lastly, how about a name we never even saw in 2023? We’ve seen the highest of highs and the lowest of lows from Naomi Osaka so far in her career, and while we last saw her at the latter, something tells me the former World No. 1 is going to be coming back with a vengeance. After giving birth to her daughter Shai last July, not long after, Osaka announced her intentions to return in 2024 with a full schedule. While it may be a bumpy road at first, let’s not forget that Osaka has been widely regarded as the best hardcourt player in the world when showing good form. Theoretically, we should see Osaka peaking physically, given how long she has been able to prepare for this upcoming season. Oddsmakers began to sour on Osaka in the summer of 2022, and a 15-month absence certainly won’t help. I would anticipate Osaka to immediately remind everyone just how good she is, and I’ll be more interested in backing her match-to-match initially, rather than, for example, to win the Australian Open. Now, I don’t anticipate Osaka to suddenly be great on clay and grass, so there will be moments of fading her throughout the year, but this is a woman who will be a legitimate threat at Indian Wells, Miami, Toronto, Cincinnati, and the US Open in 2024.
Sofia Kenin (Bonus)
So, I had the three WTA undervalued choices, along with all the analysis completed before the World Tennis League exhibition took place last weekend, and after watching that event play out, I felt pretty obligated to add Sofia Kenin to this group. The 2020 Australian Open Champion has really battled countless injuries and a serious lack of form since the tail end of the 2020 season, where she followed up her Australian Open title with a French Open final. Kenin saw her ranking fall as low as No. 415 in the world in the summer of 2022, which forced her to drop down to ITF level at the end of the 2022 season. 2023 started off quite well, as she made a semifinal in Hobart to begin her season, but her struggles continued throughout the winter and spring, needing to go through qualifying at Wimbledon, where she made the main draw and took out Coco Gauff in the opening round, before losing in the third round. Kenin then made the San Diego final and Guadalajara semifinals in back-to-back weeks in what saw the American look as good as she has since that 2020 run. I saw Kenin in Miami last spring and while she still wasn’t near her best, it was clear she was beginning to regain some confidence after reuniting with her long-time coach, her father Alex Kenin. Now, Kenin has completed her “preseason” going 3-0 with match wins (just one set in their format) over Caroline Garcia, Sorana Cirstea and Aryna Sabalenka. Kenin is a counterpuncher, and to be successful, she needs to be able to extend rallies, pick her spots to be aggressive, and get errors out of her opponents. To me, her lack of form has had everything to do with a severe lack of confidence in her ball striking abilities. Healthy and looking more like the player who peaked at a No. 4 ranking, I’m buying a Sofia Kenin bounce back season in 2024.
Overvalued
Ons Jabeur
If you’ve followed me over the years, you probably already know I believe Ons Jabeur is overrated. Yes, she’s a flashy shotmaker, but Jabeur lacks consistent putaway weapons, and her fitness was a major area of concern last season, something that had long been one of her best assets. Jabeur maintains a top-10 ranking thanks to another Wimbledon finals appearance, but if you take that, as well as her Charleston and Ningbo titles away, she really had a poor season, going just 20-16 the remainder of her season. Jabeur, who had been a combined 49-9 versus opponents ranked outside the top 50 over the previous two seasons, finished just 19-7 in that split in 2023. Additionally, after going 38-23-2 ATS in 2021 and 34-23-4 ATS in 2022, Jabeur went 19-30-1 ATS in 2023. Despite that, oddsmakers continued to give her a ton of respect. She will now be entering her age-30 season, coming off a multitude of nagging injuries and will be one of my favorite fades throughout 2024.
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva could very well be the next mega star in the women’s game, but her value has skyrocketed to a point where she is unbeatable. If you recall, back in 2019 when Coco Gauff burst onto the Tour as a 15-year-old, the American went 16-5. In her age-16 season, which was the pandemic-shortened season, Gauff went 12-8. Then in her age-17 season, Gauff went 36-16. Andreeva went an incredible 22-8 in her age-16 season, her first on the WTA Tour. Is it possible Andreeva is more seasoned than Gauff was at her age? Absolutely. What I do know is there is plenty of film to study on Andreeva now, and players will begin to pick up on her weaknesses. Can the 16-year-old (17 in April) make the necessary mid-match adjustments? That remains to be seen. However, given her incredible success last season, Andreeva is going to be priced like one of the best players on Tour, and given her current numbers in the Slam outright markets, she will be a fade throughout the 2024 season, especially off clay courts.
Coco Gauff
Speaking of Gauff, the American and reigning US Open champion finds herself as the third overvalued name. Gauff proved me and many other doubters wrong as she hoisted her first Grand Slam title last summer, as the addition of Brad Gilbert to her coaching staff paid off quite nicely. Gilbert seemed to unlock Gauff’s forehand woes, as that wing caught fire throughout the US Open Series, where the American won Washington, Cincinnati, and the US Open, part of a 22-1 run through her semifinals appearance in Beijing. The inconsistencies in Gauff’s forehand re-emerged after the US Open (in fact, it did at times during her US Open run). 2024 is going to be a pivotal year in Gauff’s development as she can either build off the momentum of her US Open title or crash back down to earth like Sofia Kenin and Emma Raducanu. Gauff did show signs of life from a set down as well, after going 0-18 versus top-50 opponents in 2022 from a set down, Gauff went 3-13 in that split in 2023, all three of which came at the US Open and WTA Finals. That said, 3-13 is still quite mediocre, and I will continue playing the angle of hitting the “To Win 1st Set plus Win Match” market when Gauff finds herself matched up with a top-50 opponent.
End-of-2024 Top 10
- Iga Swiatek
- Elena Rybakina
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Coco Gauff
- Karolina Muchova
- Jessica Pegula
- Naomi Osaka
- Qinwen Zheng
- Ludmilla Samsonova
- Elina Svitolina
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely to Be Unseeded at US Open
Marketa Vondrousova
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Jennifer Brady
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Naomi Osaka
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Lesia Tsurenko
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Qinwen Zheng
Truth be told, I have no true hunch on the WTA side to kick off the Grand Slam season, but what I do know is the trio of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are all far too short to back. Could one of that big three win? Absolutely, as I think we saw last season, the conditions Down Under are extremely favorable to ball bashers like Sabalenka and Rybakina. So, why not go a bit off the chalk with another ball basher in Qinwen Zheng? As I alluded to earlier, Zheng closed out 2023 with some serious momentum and I have high expectations for her in 2024.
Sleeper: Jennifer Brady
French Open
Pick: Iga Swiatek
I’m certainly no fun for this one, but I cannot bet against Iga Swiatek on clay. Swiatek is now 56-5 on clay since the 2020 French Open. One of those losses came against Ashleigh Barty, who is no longer on Tour. Another was a retirement loss to Elena Rybakina. While there were moments in her 2023 French Open run where Swiatek looked vulnerable, specifically in the final against Karolina Muchova, she still found a way, because that’s what champions do. Nobody can match Swiatek’s ball striking on this surface, and if anyone is going to prevent the Pole from winning her fourth Roland Garros title, it’s going to need to be a ball basher who can hit through Swiatek, something very, very few have been able to do on clay.
Sleeper: Amanda Anisimova
Wimbledon
Pick: Karolina Muchova
If you wanted to describe the perfect tennis player, the characteristics you’d come up with would resemble that of Ashleigh Barty. While Barty is no longer on Tour, Karolina Muchova is the closest active player to Barty. Perhaps Ons Jabeur uses more variety than Muchova, but nobody does so tactically better. Funny enough, the expectation for Barty had always been that her maiden Slam would come at Wimbledon, given how often she used slice off the backhand wing. Barty ended up attaining her maiden title at the French Open, which was arguably the least expected outcome. Barty went on to win Wimbledon two years later, her first time playing the event following that French Open title. Now, Muchova has amazingly made the semifinals at three of four Slams, with Wimbledon being the odd one out. She has made a pair of quarterfinals at the All England Club, back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. Of course, Covid wiped out the 2020 tournament, and Muchova has battled injuries in her previous two appearances in 2022 and 2023. A fully healthy Karolina Muchova should be considered one of the favorites to win this illustrious tournament in July, but you’ll also notice an interesting name as a Sleeper below and Angelique Kerber, who will be returning from maternity leave will always be a threat on grass courts, where she’s made seven finals, including two at Wimbledon, winning one Wimbledon title.
Sleeper: Angelique Kerber
Paris Olympics
Pick: Iga Swiatek
See French Open analysis. One of two things will happen. The first is that Swiatek wins the French Open in dominant fashion and has the opportunity to return to the same site just six weeks later with an opportunity to win her first Olympic Gold Medal. The second is she doesn’t win the French Open, and you get an angry, highly motivated Swiatek against a field that surely won’t be as strong as your typical Grand Slam field. Whether Swiatek wins or loses the French Open, expect her to bail on grass season, with the exception of Wimbledon, to alleviate some of the stress of changing surfaces ahead of the return to Roland Garros for the Olympics.
Sleeper: Mirra Andreeva
US Open
Pick: Naomi Osaka
Lastly, while I don’t expect Osaka to win the Australian Open, it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see her make a run. Most, if not all of Osaka’s success in her comeback will come on hardcourts, and if she’s as motivated as most expect her to be, she is going to be a dangerous threat in New York where she’s of course already won two times (2018 and 2020).
Sleeper: Ludmilla Samsonova
