NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tennis’ offseason seems to get shorter and shorter each year. After a five-week absence, the greatest gambling sport in the world returns with the summer Down Under. As crazy as it may seem, 2023 has a chance to be the first normal season since pre-COVID, as the ranking system has finally normalized in addition to all restrictions being lifted.
2022 saw the retirement of Roger Federer and Serena Williams, in addition to other legends such as Juan Martin Del Potro, Kim Clijsters, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Ashleigh Barty. 2022 also saw the coronation of Carlos Alcaraz, who took the tennis world by storm, catapulting to the top, becoming the youngest World No. 1 of all time. Then there was Iga Swiatek and her historic 37-match win streak. Two new Grand Slam champions were crowned in Elena Rybakina and Carlos Alcaraz, while Casper Ruud finished as a runner-up twice (French Open and US Open).
Now, we move on to 2023, where Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic continue fighting for the most Grand Slam titles of all time. So, let’s take a look at what to expect in the new season.
ATP
Undervalued
Dominic Thiem
One year after Dominic Thiem cracked the “Overvalued” group, the script flips. Thiem’s end of 2022 was very encouraging, specifically following the US Open. He made a final in Rennes at a Challenger-level event, then back-to-back semifinals in Gijon and Antwerp, while collecting four wins over top-50 opponents. After losing his first seven matches following his return to action, Thiem finished 23-12. With a ranking outside the top 100 to begin 2023, Thiem still has a ways to go before reaching his 2020 US Open level, but with a complete off-season to build off the momentum closing out 2022, and a chance to find some form ahead of the clay court season this spring, Thiem is very likely to be disrespected in the first few months of the 2023 season.
Brandon Nakashima
The first of two Americans to crack my undervalued group, Nakashima concluded his 2022 season by winning the Next Gen Final, an event that has been a good omen for previous winners. Since the event’s inaugural edition, each winner has reached their maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal the following year (Hyeon Chung 2018 Australian Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas 2019 Australian Open, Jannik Sinner 2020 French Open, Carlos Alcaraz 2022 French Open and 2022 US Open). Brandon Nakashima has a terrific serve, as well as an underrated backhand. He’s been working with Duglas Cordero, fitness trainer of Leylah Fernandez, Dominic Thiem, and the Fruhvirtova sisters. With improved fitness, we could be looking at the end of 2023 American No. 1.
Ben Shelton
Our second American among the group of undervalued players. Shelton was expected to return to University of Florida for his senior season, where he was the No. 1-ranked NCAA player. Instead, he turned pro following his junior season, in what ultimately may be his best career decision. He catapulted from world No. 433 in July to No. 96 at the end of 2022, thanks to three consecutive titles at the Challenger level at the end of the season. Shelton is a lefty with a big first serve, very much like Jack Draper, but Shelton is more athletic, a better shotmaker and is comfortable at the net. He’s perhaps the most promising American men’s player since Andy Roddick. We’ve seen very little of Shelton off hardcourts, so my main interest will come early in the season, as well as in the summer once the Tour shifts to grass, but I expect books to disrespect the young American early in 2023.
Overvalued
Daniil Medvedev
So, I am surely going to be in the minority as far as Daniil Medvedev doubters go, but I think we could see some serious regression in 2023. The ATP Tour has started to figure out the optimal tactics to not only beat Medvedev but frustrate him beyond belief. Many players, even those without a big serve, are beginning to deploy the serve-and-volley tactic on Medvedev, and given how far back Medvedev stands, it’s a tactic that really can’t fail. Even as quick as Medvedev is, and as long a stride as he has, it is simply not possible to make up the ground on a good serve-and-volley. When you take Medvedev’s return game out of the equation, there’s suddenly little margin for error in his service games. Now, looking back at his 2022 season, the sports hernia surely played a role in his second half struggles, but the increased usage of serve-and-volley against Medvedev was most definitely a problem as well, and one he simply has not solved. He will continue to be treated as a top-three player, and there are going to be increased situations where he is simply priced too short as the season progresses.
Holger Rune
This one is a no-brainer. Holger Rune went from a borderline top-50 player to an easy top-10 player, seemingly overnight late in 2022 after adding Patrick Mouratoglou as his primary coach. Now, we haven’t really seen Rune outdoors, as his entire late season success came during the indoor hardcourt swing. Rune showed increased velocity on both his first and second serves, so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds up when dealing with the typical outdoor elements. This is a terrific clay court player, who has become a force on hardcourts as well, so we’re going to see Rune getting serious respect from sportsbooks over the first half of 2023, and there will be countless opportunities to fade him, particularly Down Under and during the Sunshine Double in March.
Frances Tiafoe
Lastly, the moment Frances Tiafoe became the first American to make the US Open semifinals since Andy Roddick, was the exact moment he would be respected in betting markets far greater than he deserves. Tiafoe is a terrific player, but his game largely thrives off crowd support. He’s an energetic, charismatic player, so crowds across the globe will latch on to Tiafoe, but as far as tennis goes, he’s not a top 25 player, and with his current ranking, he’s going to be treated as such.
End-of-2023 Top-10
- Novak Djokovic
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Alexander Zverev
- Jannik Sinner
- Holger Rune
- Rafael Nadal
- Andrey Rublev
- Nick Kyrgios
- Casper Ruud
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely to be Unseeded at US Open
Daniil Medvedev
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Flavio Cobolli
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Ben Shelton
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Albert Ramos Vinolas
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Novak Djokovic
If there were ever a situation where the revenge narrative can be used in tennis, it would be once Novak Djokovic steps on Australian soil. After everything he went through regarding his vaccination status last year, Djokovic has never wanted an Australian Open title more than in 2023. Now, it helps that Djokovic has made this event his own over the last decade or so, collecting eight Australian Open titles in his last 11 appearances. The light Australian Open ball and humid, quick conditions are extremely favorable to Djokovic. Additionally, he is 87-4 at Grand Slam level against everyone not named Rafael Nadal since the 2018 Wimbledon Championships. In fact, he’s only lost three sets twice in that timeframe, as two losses came via default (Pablo Carreno Busta, 2020 US Open) and retirement (Stan Wawrinka, 2019 US Open). Rafael Nadal has not beaten Djokovic on hardcourts since 2013, so it’s difficult to find a true challenger to take over Djokovic’s throne, especially with Carlos Alcaraz battling back from an injury ridden offseason and Daniil Medvedev’s lack of form to close out 2022.
Sleeper: Felix Auger Aliassime
French Open
Pick: Rafael Nadal
This is really a no-brainer. A year after finally being dethroned by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal claimed his 14th French Open championship in pretty miraculous fashion, as he essentially played the tournament on one leg, with his degenerative foot causing grief throughout the entire clay court season. There are a number of potential threats to Nadal’s crown, including Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas, but we’ve yet to see anyone other than Novak Djokovic and Robin Soderling take three sets off Nadal on clay. With a 112-3 career record at Roland Garros, Nadal is the preseason favorite to claim an astonishing 15th title at Roland Garros.
Sleeper: Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon
Pick: Novak Djokovic
Like the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic has owned the Wimbledon Championships lately, winning each of the last four editions of the Championships. His biggest threat over the last decade has been Roger Federer, who of course, is now retired, and thus, really leaves Djokovic without a viable challenger. Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios, two ideal grass court talents with big serves, have been unsuccessful in the last two finals. Until someone on the ATP Tour proves to be capable of challenging Djokovic in best of five on grass courts, he is going to be the prohibitive favorite year in, year out.
Sleeper: Maxime Cressy
US Open
Pick: Alexander Zverev
Zverev was my pick to win the US Open last preseason, and frankly, had he not shattered his ankle at the French Open, he very well may have. We saw Zverev at his very best at Roland Garros last season, before the season ending injury, and while it may take him some time to regain his best form, it’s fair to believe he can claim his first Grand Slam at the US Open this summer. A Slam in which has proven to be the breakthrough event for many, including Carlos Alcaraz in 2022, the US Open tends to provide an edge to the Next Gen group, with less mileage on their bodies after a long season. With Djokovic and Nadal proving year in, year out to be near impossible to dethrone at the first three Grand Slams of the season, the US Open is going to be Zverev’s best shot coming off a gruesome season-ending injury.
Sleeper: Holger Rune
WTA
Undervalued
Barbora Krejcikova
After breaking through with her maiden Grand Slam title in 2021 at the French Open, Krejcikova ended 2021 as the World No. 4. Krejcikova picked up where she left off, making the finals in Sydney, and a quarterfinal at the Australian Open. Unfortunately, not long after, she picked up an injury, sidelining her for the duration of the clay court season. It took her quite some time to find form, as she went just 7-10 upon her return, through the US Open. However, Krejcikova ended 2022 on a high note, collecting back-to-back titles in Tallinn and Ostrava, including ending Iga Swiatek’s win streak in finals. With a clean bill of health heading into 2023, I expect Krejcikova to rise back towards the top of the WTA rankings, but sportsbooks may initially devalue the former World No. 2, and that’s a mistake, as she was 8-2 against top-50 players in 2022 pre-injury and post-US Open.
Emma Raducanu
Speaking of another player who made her initial breakthrough in 2021, hampered by injuries in 2022, enter Emma Raducanu. Now, Raducanu didn’t back up here US Open run, so there’s inherently more risk in assuming Raducanu can turn things around. However, let’s not forget how impressive her US Open run was. Raducanu became the first player, man or woman, to go through qualifying and win a Grand Slam. Not only did she win 10 matches, rather than the typical seven, but she did so without dropping a set. Growing pains were always going to exist, considering Raducanu had not even recorded a tour level win prior to her US Open title. There’s no question the talent is there though, but it’s a matter of finding consistency in putting all the pieces together. Raducanu dealt with a multitude of injuries in 2022 as well, including nagging blisters (both hand and feet), as well as a wrist injury, which ultimately concluded her season. One year after seeing Raducanu inherently overvalued, we should expect favorable numbers on Brit as we begin the 2023 season, as she attempts to rebuild her ranking.
Brenda Fruhvirtova
Lastly, here’s a name many might not be familiar with, and if that’s the case, prepare to learn. For all the hype that surrounded Coco Gauff back in 2019, Brenda Fruhvirtova is deserving of even more. Fruhvirtova is only 15 years old. She made her WTA debut early in 2022 at just 14 years of age, losing to Sloane Stephens in straight sets. While Fruhvirtova spent nearly all of her time at ITF level last season, she put together a remarkable campaign, including a 27-match win streak, which included five consecutive titles. Fruhvirtova took her ranking from No. 1095 to as high as No. 128, meaning she will be in the qualifying field at the Australian Open, and she isn’t far off from having direct acceptance into the French Open field, the Slam in which she would actually have the best chance of being quite competitive as clay is expected to be her best (preferred) surface. Now, that does not mean she doesn’t have the game to survive on hardcourts, but that will come with more maturity. Fruhvirtova, along with her older sister Linda, trained with Duglas Cordero in the offseason, the fitness trainer who also works with Leylah Fernandez, Brandon Nakashima and Dominic Thiem. Despite being 15 years old, this is already one of the cleanest ball strikers on the WTA circuit, and while there will be some growing pains against better competition, this is a player worth buying into early in the season, and even more so once the calendar turns over to clay courts in April.
Overvalued
Caroline Garcia
You never know which Caroline Garcia you’re going to get. We saw both sides of her in 2022, starting with the Garcia who looked like a borderline professional, lacking a quality serve and offering few (if any) weapons from the baseline. Then something clicked midway through 2022, and Garcia reminded us why Andy Murray believed she would be a future World. No 1. Beginning at Bad Homburg, the lead-in event to Wimbledon, through the rest of the season, Garcia went 37-9, a record in which included four titles, topped off by the WTA Finals, as well as a win over Iga Swiatek on clay. She ended 2022 matching her previous peak ranking of World No. 4, and her stock has never been higher. How will she respond to these new extreme expectations?
Coco Gauff
It pains me to say it, but it’s very possible Coco Gauff peaked at the 2022 French Open. She is still just 18 years old, so it would be unfair to write her off, but she unfortunately has a massive liability in her forehand wing, and if that liability doesn’t see massive adjustments, then yes, she will have peaked at the 2022 French Open, and ultimately go down as one of the greater flops in professional tennis. She had an entire offseason to work on her forehand, and she did have Diego Moyano join her team midway through 2022, so perhaps a complete offseason working with Moyano helps. I’ll be steering clear of Gauff (in singles) in 2023, finding ways to fade her, expecting her to be priced far shorter than she deserves.
Alycia Parks
Lastly, this is a name many might be unfamiliar with, but it is one we’ll be hearing a lot of Down Under, especially from the American media. Alycia Parks has always been a player the USTA have been high on, but her development has taken a little bit longer than most. She ended 2022 winning back-to-back $125K titles in Andorra and Angers, posting a whopping 16% ace rate along the way. While those two titles only saw three top-100 wins, they did come against Shuai Zhang, Marketa Vondrousova and Linda Noskova, so Parks deserves plenty of credit for those two titles. With as big a serve as Parks has, she can threaten just about anyone, but there is very, very little margin once she takes her game outdoors. She posted a double fault rate of 8.5% or worse in eight of those 10 matches en route to her two titles and won just 39.4% of her return points. Two of her wins saw a Dominance Ratio of sub-1.00. Against better competition, while dealing with the typical outdoor elements, we’re going to see hard regression, and the public hype surrounding her game is going to make her easy to fade early in 2023.
End-of-2023 Top-10
- Iga Swiatek
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Barbora Krejcikova
- Ons Jabeur
- Elena Rybakina
- Jessica Pegula
- Belinda Bencic
- Veronika Kudermetova
- Amanda Anisimova
- Qinwen Zheng
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely to be Unseeded at US Open
Simona Halep
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Marketa Vondrousova
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Naomi Osaka
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Elena Rybakina
After holding futures on Rybakina at probably every single Grand Slam beginning in 2020 through the 2022 French Open, naturally, she decided to win Wimbledon when we only had her to win her quarter. The breakthrough was bound to happen, and now her eyes are on adding another Slam trophy to her resume. Rybakina heads into 2023 off a three-match win streak at the World Tennis League exhibition, which saw wins over Aryna Sabalenka, Caroline Garcia and Iga Swiatek, three of the four US Open semifinalists. Rybakina’s game molds well for Melbourne. A big serve, big ball striker, with a light Australian Open Dunlop ball, quick courts and extreme heat that can really wear down her opponents. She hasn’t had much luck at the first Slam of the season, running into Ashleigh Barty in 2020, while she was in peak form, then the quarantine in 2021 killed her momentum to begin the season, and last year, in peak form during the lead-ins, ultimately got injured in the first round of the Open. Slam number two is coming for Rybakina in the near future, and I view it being more likely to come on hardcourts, rather than clay, or even a repeat on grass.
Sleeper: Qinwen Zheng
French Open
Pick: Iga Swiatek
I’m not spending too much time on this one, but sitting five months out from the start of the French Open, why should I, or anyone, believe that someone is going to beat Iga Swiatek on clay? Swiatek went 18-1 on clay in 2022, and since the 2020 French Open, is 37-3 on the surface. Of those three losses, one was to Ashleigh Barty, who is retired, meaning only Maria Sakkari and Caroline Garcia have found a way to take two sets off Swiatek on her most lethal surface. What will it take to beat Swiatek? A ball basher who hits big off both wings with consistency (I.E Caroline Garcia, Amanda Anisimova, Danielle Collins, Ludmilla Samsonova, Jelena Ostapenko, Elena Rybakina).
Sleeper: Amanda Anisimova
Wimbledon
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka was my pick heading into last year — of course, prior to all her service woes. Remarkably, she ended 2022 as the World No. 5 despite beginning 2022 quite literally unable to make a serve. Sabalenka had seven matches with 16 or more double faults in 2022. Now, winning Wimbledon was impossible, regardless of her serving, as players representing Russia and Belarus were banned. Assuming that ban is lifted in 2023, Sabalenka, a 2021 semifinalist, has all the tools to succeed on grass courts, and with a more stable serve, is going to be the favorite with Ashleigh Barty no longer in the picture.
Sleeper: Alycia Parks
US Open
Pick: Belinda Bencic
As I alluded to for the men, the US Open has largely been the Slam of breakthroughs. Why? Because after the grind of a long, hard season, it’s not unusual to see someone with younger, fresher legs, step in and take his or her first Slam. Well, we could argue for days whether this would indeed be a breakthrough for Bencic. She won the singles Gold Medal in Tokyo and has added back-to-back Billie Jean King Cup titles to her resume. She is 25, soon to be 26, so she’s not necessarily on the “younger” side as far as the WTA goes, but she’s far from the elder side. Bencic is now working with Dimitry Tursunov, the former coach of Anett Kontaveit, largely responsible for the Estonian’s remarkable indoor hardcourt run in late 2021. Tursunov should be able to get the best out of Bencic, an aggressive player who simply doesn’t trust her game. Tursunov will fix that, and will an even greater level of aggression, Bencic very well could have a career year in 2023, culminating with her maiden Slam in New York this summer.
Sleeper: Marie Bouzkova
