Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It feels like the 2021 tennis season just wrapped up, and quite frankly, that’s because it just did. The great thing about tennis is the offseason is just a month long before the long grind resumes for 11 months.
There was a lot of uncertainty heading into the 2021 season, and all things considered, it went about as smoothly as it could have. Like every other sport, the tennis world will continue to deal with COVID-19 issues, but 2022 appears to (hopefully) be the year in which the sport returns to normalcy. The schedules across both ATP and WTA look to be intact without needing to shuffle around events.
The biggest question marks heading into 2022 revolve around two of the greatest to ever play the sport. When will Roger Federer and Serena Williams return? And once they do, how long will they play? On the ATP side, Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic remain tied with 20 Grand Slam titles each. Who will separate himself from the others? On the WTA side, will anybody be able to dethrone Ash Barty as the World No. 1?
It should be another great year of tennis, but for now, let’s take a look at what we can expect from a betting perspective heading into the new season.
ATP 2022 Preview: Undervalued
Marin Cilic: Cilic saw a resurgence at the end of 2021, notably during the European Indoor swing. The former World No. 3 has one of the best forehands on Tour, and when his level is near its peak, he’s capable of beating any top-10 opponent (other than Djokovic). He’s a former Australian Open finalist (2018), and the winter European Indoor swing follows the Summer Down Under. Cilic is a name to keep an eye on in the early stages of 2022.
Gael Monfils: For the greater part of a year following the resumption of play in 2020, Monfils’ game disappeared. It reached a point where he had to question his desire to play tennis, detailing how difficult it was to mentally handle his poor play. Monfils closed out 2021 winning at least two matches in seven of his final eight events played, tallying a 15-7 record in that span. He’ll continue to be treated as if he is washed in the early part of 2022.
Maxime Cressy: The big serving American (who plays two first serves), made a name for himself at the US Open, coming back from two sets down to knock off Pablo Carreno Busta. Cressy spent much of the fall season grinding out the Challenger Tour, making a trio of finals, taking home one title. His ranking is now at a career-best No. 112 heading into the new year. With two first serves, and playing a heavy dose of serve-and-volley, Cressy is someone who generally carries a big price as an underdog, but finds himself in tiebreaks. If he has made any kind of improvements to his baseline game during the short offseason, he can transcend his game to new levels.
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ATP 2022 Preview: Overvalued
Cameron Norrie: Norrie had a breakout 2021 season, jumping from World No. 74 to a career-best No. 12. Norrie was just 9-10 against top-20 players, and 2-9 against top-10 players in 2021. Now a fringe top-10 player based on ranking, Norrie does not appear to belong within that group. An Indian Wells title helped him reach his current ranking, and a soft field helped him achieve that feat.
John Isner: Statistically, 2021 was Isner’s worst season since 2013, but he was at least moving better at that juncture. His break rate and return points won percentage were the worst of his career since he was on the Challenger Tour in 2008. Additionally, he posted three of his worst six (and two of his worst three) Dominance Ratio’s this season (vs. Tsitsipas in Acalpulco, vs. Medvedev in Toronto, vs. Sinner in Davis Cup). The decline for the big fella is real, and with his service rates all dropping, he’s no longer as valuable a commodity in the betting markets when he’s failing to play a mass volume of tiebreakers.
Dominic Thiem: A wrist injury kept him out for the final five months of the season. For someone who plays a one-handed backhand, and a high volume of slice on that wing, I have a lot of concerns about Thiem’s return to the top. There were already some signs of regression in the early portion of 2021, and whether that was due to fatigue carrying over from the end of 2020 and/or the wrist injury giving him grief long before he finally pulled the plug remains to be seen. I would expect Thiem to be priced rather generously despite his absence, especially following the Australian Open where he is defending finalist points (from 2020) and may head into the Golden Swing unseeded.
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Chun Hsin Tseng
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Holger Rune
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Ugo Humbert
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Novak Djokovic: Less than a week out, we somehow still have no idea whether Djokovic will even make the trip to Australia, as he is likely going to need a medical exemption as an unvaccinated player. Should Djokovic play, he should be the odds-on favorite as someone who is a resounding 18-0 in a Semifinals and Finals of the Australian Open. Medvedev is who I’d be picking if Djokovic skips.
Sleeper: Matteo Berrettini
French Open
Pick: Rafael Nadal: Nadal was definitely dealing with some sort of injury throughout the clay court season in 2021, and we saw it reach its breaking point against Djokovic. Someone who could outwork and physically outlast Nadal. The king of clay is still 105-3 at Roland Garros, and it would be foolish to think anyone other than Nadal hoists The Musketeers’ Trophy this spring.
Sleeper: Carlos Alcaraz
Wimbledon
Pick: Novak Djokovic: Since 2014, in seven installments of Wimbledon, Djokovic has won five times. Of the two he didn’t, he shockingly lost to Sam Querrey in 2016, and was forced to retire in the quarterfinal in 2017. Roger Federer is no longer a threat, and Rafael Nadal may only be a threat on clay.
Sleeper: Marin Cilic
US Open
Pick: Alexander Zverev: Could we possibly see another first-time Slam winner in 2022? Zverev finally took his game to the next level last summer, winning Olympic Gold and following that up with a title in Cincinnati before finishing his season with a title at the ATP Finals. He was one set away from reaching a second consecutive US Open final. Let’s not forget, he served for the title in 2020. Zverev seems to play his best at the end of the season, whereas others are beginning to gas out from the grind of a long season. To me, Zverev’s best shot at collecting his first major title, will come at the final Slam of the season.
Sleeper: Reilly Opelka
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WTA 2022 Preview: Undervalued
Sofia Kenin: 2021 was a year to forget for the 2020 Australian Open champion. Kenin’s season began seemingly unprepared in Abu Dhabi, and after some poor results in Australia, admitted the pressure of defending the title was overwhelming. Shortly after, she learned she had appendicitis, sidelining her for six weeks. She struggled to regain her 2020 form, ultimately parting ways with her father (her longtime coach), and an injury ended up keeping her sidelined for much of the summer, with the exception of Wimbledon, where she lost in the second round. When it finally seemed as though Kenin would return for the US Open series, she tested positive for COVID-19, and rather than rush back, she ultimately decided to take the rest of the season off. Right before Thanksgiving, she announced her father would return as her coach in 2022. The decision to split made little sense to me, almost as if her team felt something had to be done, when in reality bad luck was what held her back in 2021. I expect Kenin to return in 2022 looking to send a message to the rest of the Tour. Books will likely use her 2021 season to value her, making her one of the better value players once the 2022 season kicks off.
Serena Williams: When (if) Serena Williams returns in 2022, for the first time in her career, will appear as a value. At 40 years old, coming off a torn hamstring, Williams is facing her most difficult test to date (yes, even greater than returning from pregnancy). What excites me is I was actually quite impressed with how well Williams played last season before injuries ended her season. Williams looked fantastic in Australia. Her level of play was excellent, and she looked to be in her best physical shape in years. If outright markets are any indication, Williams is no longer considered one of the favorites to win a major title, and that should ultimately reflect her match odds as well.
Amanda Anisimova: I hate that I’m going three American women here, but overall, the American women have been outstanding in recent years and 2021 very well may have been the outlier for them. It’s hard to believe Amanda Anisimova is just 20 years old, but indeed she is. It was in 2019 as a 17-year-old where Anisimova made her fourth-round run in Melbourne and semifinal run at Roland Garros. Then, while carrying that momentum into the second half of the season, an injury kept her out of the early portion of the US Open series, and her father (and longtime coach) tragically suddenly passed away. She has not been able to replicate her 2019 results since her father’s death, understandably, but there were some signs of a return to form at the end of 2021. Anisimova’s backhand is a top-five shot on the WTA tour, and her groundstrokes as a whole are some of the crispest strokes in tennis. With her ranking now outside the top 75, we may see Anisimova undervalued in the betting market early on in 2022, and she is someone I want to buy early, hoping she can carry over some of the momentum from the end of 2021.
WTA 2022 Preview: Overvalued
Leylah Fernandez: Aside from her US Open run, Fernandez was just 11-11 against top-100 players and 4-8 against top-50 players in 2021. There is still a ton of hype surrounding her following the Cinderella run, and I’m going to need to see some better results before beginning to back her as a favorite this season.
Anett Kontaveit: Kontaveit ended her 2021 season going 29-4 after the week of Aug. 23. In that timeframe, she was 26-0 when winning the opening set. Kontaveit’s value in the betting market had reached a peak to the likes of Naomi Osaka, Ash Barty and Serena Williams. That should carry over into the new year initially, which should make her a great fade with the expectation of a two-month break halting some of her momentum.
Emma Raducanu: If you’ve followed me for a while, you know my love for Raducanu is deep. The British sensation made headlines at Wimbledon, then made history at the US Open by running the table from qualifying to a title. Man or woman, there has never been a player in tennis with more hype than Raducanu currently has. In unprecedented fashion, Raducanu is one of the top three favorites at each of the four Grand Slam events behind Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka (Swiatek rather than Osaka at the French Open). Not even Bianca Andreescu saw that type of respect in the outright market once the Canadian completed her historic 2019 season with a US Open title. I prefer Raducanu on quick surfaces, as we’ve seen her at her best at Wimbledon, the US Open and Chicago Challenger. The courts are quick in Australia, so conditions should suit her game, but at the prices she will carry, she’s going to be a fade in most cases, especially should she continue her hot run into the clay court season, a surface in which she has never played a single match professionally.
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely to Break Top 50
Daria Snigur
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely to Break Top 20
Dayana Yastremska
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely to Fall Outside Top 100
Jennifer Brady
Way-Too-Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Garbine Muguruza: The 2021 WTA Finals champion, Muguruza has shown time and time again how dominant she can be on the hardcourt surface. A finalist here in 2020, she was within a set of the title before Sofia Kenin fought back to win in three. Muguruza displayed some exceptional results in the lead-in tournament last year, before falling to Ash Barty in the final. Then in the 2021 Australian Open, Muguruza carried the momentum from the lead in, collecting a pair of match points against Naomi Osaka in the fourth round. A year later, I still cannot be convinced Muguruza would not have won the tournament had she converted either of those match points. Ash Barty is her biggest threat.
Sleeper: Danielle Collins
French Open
Pick: Paula Badosa: The Spaniard had a career year in 2021, collecting a pair of titles, including her breakthrough title at Indian Wells. She has shown she’s a bigger threat in slow conditions, compiling a 17-3 record on clay in 2021, making her first Slam quarterfinal at the French Open. Her best hardcourt results included the Indian Wells title, Olympic quarterfinal, and WTA Finals semifinal, all of which came on slow DecoTurf. She was my pick to win this event last year when she was a bit of a sleeper, and barring injury in the weeks preceding, she’ll be one of the field favorites.
Sleeper: Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka: Everyone seems to believe Sabalenka’s breakthrough major will be the French Open. How about the major where she finally made a quarterfinal? In fact, she was a set away from reaching the final here a year ago. Sabalenka’s serve is a massive weapon, which benefits her most in the quickest of conditions. She’s actually a better mover than most might think, and her improved fitness from the 2020 offseason played a major role in her 2021 success. Now that she has made a pair of Slam semifinals, some of the pressure should be off the Belarusians shoulders. My biggest gripe, nearly six months out is her outright market value is way too short for someone who has still yet to reach a Slam final. She’ll be a fade in the outright market for the time being.
Sleeper: Jelena Ostapenko
US Open
Pick: Naomi Osaka: In 2018, Naomi Osaka won her breakthrough event at Indian Wells, following that up in the summer with her first major title at the US Open. She then went on to start 2019 off with an Australian Open title, fading the remainder of the season. Her 2020 Australian Open ended in fireworks, going out in the third round to Coco Gauff, where mentally, she just didn’t seem right. Then the pandemic hit, where she was able to take a break from tennis and focus on herself. She returned from the pandemic winning the 2020 US Open, following that title up by starting 2021 with an Australian Open title. Sound familiar? Her results in early 2022 will set a tone as to whether this trend continues. We know she has historically struggled on clay and grass, so some early 2022 struggles may leave her searching for form in the early portion of the summer. Currently at 5/1, we are not touching her, but that doesn’t mean she can’t be my way too early pick to win this event.
Sleeper: Clara Tauson
