World Cup Betting Breakdown (Sunday 12/4)

The second matchday of the knockout round of the World Cup features Group B winners England taking on Group A runners-up Senegal and Group D winners France facing Group C runners-up Poland. Both matchups are similar to the ones we saw Friday, with two clear favorites expected to advance in England and France. The round of 16 is typically where upset stories go to die, and I don’t anticipate anything different here. On paper, both England and France are the more talented side, and should dispatch both of their opponents easily. We’ll dive into both matchups and discuss how we will be attacking both of these knockout stage matchups.

France vs. Poland

France is coming on an interesting group stage that saw them run roughshod over Australia, win against a disappointing Denmark and get upset by Tunisia whilst starting the B team. It’s tough to put too much stock into that last matchup with relatively nothing to play for, but a 97th minute equalizer got wiped away for offsides, and many of Les Blues best players didn’t get in until the last half hour or so. Obviously, playoff football will be much different. While Poland won’t be as leaky as Australia was defensively, the French have every bit of an advantage in this matchup as they did in their group stage clashes. The defending world champions have made it out of the round of 16 in three of their last four World Cup appearances, and I don’t expect that trend to stop here.

Poland scratched into the round of 16 with an uninspiring scoreless draw vs. Mexico, a win against Saudi Arabia, and a loss to Argentina. Nothing from those 270 minutes could be described as brilliant play, and this will prove to be a very difficult matchup for the Poles, who made it out of the group stage for the first time since 1986. Robert Lewandowski, who finally has his World Cup goal, will hope to put the team on his back with a vintage performance, but I think the French defensive chops will prove to be too much.

A quick reminder that on these final score bets, this is only for regulation time. The final score at the end of the 90 minutes and added time is what will be paid out. If we have a 2:1 exact score bet and it is 1:1 going into extra time (overtime), the bet is a loss, even if it finishes 2:1 after extra time (overtime).

Most Likely Scores

(All risking 0.2x, all odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)

France, 2-0 (+500)
France, 1-0 (+550)
France, 3-0 (+750)
France, 2-1 (+950)

England vs. Senegal

The Three Lions enter having won Group B with relative ease, including a 6-2 romping of Iran, a scoreless draw to the US, and a 3-0 thrashing of Wales. England was never seriously challenged throughout, even though us here in the States would argue that we could have (and should have) won that game. England scoring nine goals in the group stages is already their second-most goals scored in any World Cup, and those that think “it’s coming home” couldn’t have asked for a better team to face in Senegal. England are going on 56 years without a major international trophy, and the hype has been building across the team about this year’s team and its potential. While manager Gareth Southgate has been roundly criticized in the past for being too conservative, this 2022 World Cup squad has been anything but, laying the smackdown against inferior opponents from start to finish.

Senegal are one of the feel-good stories of this World Cup campaign, rebounding off an opening match loss to the Netherlands to beat Qatar and Ecuador to make it to the knockout stage for the first time since 2002. Because of those wins, Senegal became just the third African nation to qualify for multiple knockout rounds, along with Nigeria and Ghana and now have the opportunity to be the first African nation to beat England in the World Cup. I anticipate this matchup to be similar to the one against Wales, with England running up and down the field in a track meet and Senegal chasing the game.