World Cup Betting Breakdown (Sunday 11/27)

Matchday 8 gives us the second round of games from Group E and Group F. Belgium, Spain and Japan all have opportunities to advance to the knockout round with a win.

Costa Rica, Canada and Germany can all be eliminated with a loss. We could see our 2014 champions sent home in the group stage for the 2nd straight World Cup. Let’s get to it.

Japan vs. Costa Rica

Our first match features two polar opposites – one of the premier upset stories of the first round in Japan, and arguably the worst first match performer in Costa Rica. Japan enters this match having pulled off a heroic comeback against group joint-favorite Germany, coming back from 1:0 down with two late second-half goals to snatch all 3 points. It looked like it took Japan around 60 minutes to grow into the game, but once they did, they exploited Germany’s slower back line in a hurry. With a win over the Ticos, Japan would advance to the knockout round in consecutive World Cups for the first time in their history, an incredible feat given the strength of the group they drew. But this shows just how far Japanese football has come. I feel they honestly played too passively against Germany, only realizing their advantages late in the game.

As mentioned in a previous article regarding Iran, the rule of thumb is typically that no team is as bad or as good as they looked in the previous match. This will be tough to move past when it comes to this Costa Rica squad, who got absolutely blitzed by Spain from the get-go, getting erased 7:0, and it honestly could have been worse. Costa Rica did all of CONCACAF an injustice with that performance with high school level defending for 90 minutes. I expect them to come out with everything to prove against Japan, but ultimately fall short.

Most Likely Scores

(all risking 0.2x, all odds provided by DraftKings)

Japan 2-0 Costa Rica (+500)
Japan 1-0 Costa Rica (+475)
Japan 0-0 Costa Rica (+1100)
Japan 1-1 Costa Rica (+750)

Belgium vs. Morocco

Belgium can also advance to the knockout round with a win over Morocco, but they snuck out of their Canada clash with all three points in what was honestly a pretty disappointing performance from the 2018 semifinalists. Canada controlled the game, had the majority of the shots, generated the best chances, but Michy Batshuayi had the finish, and that’s what matters. The Red Devils will have to generate more chances if they hope to improve off their 2018 performance, especially against a team with more World Cup experience in Morocco.

Morocco is no slouch, giving Croatia all they could handle for 90 minutes, before drawing 0:0. Morocco is unbeaten in their last six matches, and they may prove to be a tough matchup for the Belgians. Belgium has one of the oldest back lines in the tournament, as evidenced by the Canada forwards darting around them all game. I have serious questions about how that back line is going to hold up for Courtois as the matches are only three days apart.

Most Likely Scores

Belgium 1-1 Morocco (+550)
Belgium 1-0 Morocco (+600)
Belgium 0-0 Morocco (+1000)
Belgium 0-1 Morocco (+950)

Croatia vs. Canada

The 2018 finalists Croatia are coming off a defensive grinder versus Morocco and will be facing a very different team in Canada. On paper, Croatia has the better roster compared to Canada, and obviously, significantly more World Cup experience. With that experience, however, comes the weight of expectation, and Croatia are coming off a match that their manager saw as “afraid of making mistakes.” After being held scoreless for the first time since 2006, Croatia will have to find the back of the net and develop more chances if they are to get back to the knockout stage. Especially with Belgium as their third match, the Croats would much prefer to put themselves in position to just need a draw in that match to advance.

Canada enters this clash with a severely disappointing loss to Belgium that saw them look like the much better team throughout all 90 minutes. Everything about that match could be considered encouraging, however, with Canada outplaying one of the top European teams from start to finish. There was poor finishing and a missed PK from Alphonso Davies (which was a curious decision in its own right). Picking a left back over their striker in Jonathan David was the difference between Canada’s first World Cup win (and even first World Cup goal) and 0 points. Canada fired 21 shots at Courtois and will have to bring their finishing boots if they want to get past the 2018 finalists for a shot at the knockout round.

Most Likely Scores

Croatia 1-1 Canada (+550)
Croatia 1-0 Canada (+700)
Croatia 2-1 Canada (+850)
Croatia 0-0 Canada (+1100)

Spain vs. Germany

Spain is coming off the most dominant performance of the first round of games with a 7-0 thrashing of Costa Rica. This is a team that has it in all facets of the game. Youth, depth, managerial consistency, technical ability, there really aren’t a lot of flaws in Spain’s team or game. They’ll be trying to stave off a German squad that is on the ropes after blowing a 1-0 lead to Japan and ultimately losing 2-1. Spain’s attacking front had pace for days, and the skill to get past Germany’s biggest weakness, their fullbacks. From there they can cut inside and find men in the box for a quick shot. I anticipate another quality game from Spain here, rightfully earning their place in the knockout round.

The Germans have some serious work to do, now needing to play catch-up after their poor showing vs. Japan. The 2014 champions already went out with a whimper in 2018, finishing rock bottom in their group in that tournament. Now they find themselves behind the 8-ball again, absolutely needing a result, and honestly probably a win against the group favorites just to have a prayer of advancing. Germany developed very few chances against Japan and generally lacked any creativity over the 90 minutes, only scoring via a penalty. It’s going to take a significantly better effort to break down Spain via open play, and a much more disciplined defensive effort as well. Ultimately, I think Spain are just too much to handle here, and we should see Japan and Spain move on after Sunday’s ties.