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World Cup 2022 Golden Boot Odds: Lionel Messi Favored

Soccer Bets

The 2022 FIFA World Cup is down to the final, and one of soccer’s biggest stars is about to win this year’s Golden Boot. Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé have the best odds to score the most goals in Qatar.

Messi is the favorite at BetMGM with -125 odds (55.56% implied probability) to be awarded the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup. Heading into Sunday’s final between Argentina and France, Messi’s five goals are tied for the most in the tournament.


Mbappé is the co-leader with Messi for goals scored at the World Cup. France’s star has +120 odds to win the Golden Boot and finish as the tournament’s top goalscorer. 

Julian Alvarez and Olivier Giroud have scored four goals apiece. They are the only other players on France or Argentina who have a realistic chance to win the Golden Boot. 

No other player who will take the field in the World Cup final has scored more than one goal in Qatar.

Who will win the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup?

Below are the current odds for players to win the Golden Boot, per BetMGM.


Why is Lionel Messi favored to win the 2022 Golden Boot?

Even though Messi and Mbappé have each scored five goals, the Argentina star has the edge because of the first tiebreaker to decide the Golden Boot winner. If multiple players finish the tournament tied for the most goals scored, whoever has the most assists will win the award. Messi’s three assists compared to Mbappé’s two give him the clear edge before Sunday’s match. 

Messi has scored exactly one goal in five of Argentina’s six matches. It might only be fitting for Messi to finally win the Golden Boot in the last World Cup appearance of his illustrious career.

Can Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Boot?

Mbappé has been the most efficient scorer during the World Cup. He didn’t get the start in France’s third and final match of the group stage because the team already punched its ticket to the knockout round. Messi has played 92 more minutes than Mbappé in the tournament. If the PSG teammates end up tied in both goals and assists, the second tiebreaker of fewest minutes played will make Mbappé the Golden Boot winner. 

Mbappé hasn’t needed a single penalty to reach five goals. Three of Messi’s goals have been penalty kicks. 

All-Time Golden Boot Winners

Players weren’t officially given the Golden Boot at the World Cup until 1982, but the leading goal scorers of previous tournaments are retroactively considered to be winners of the award. In the mid-1990s, FIFA decided that only one player could win the award each year.

Here’s a list of the all-time Golden Boot winners.

  • 1930: Guillermo Stábile (Argentina), 8 goals
  • 1934: Oldrich Nejedly (Czech Republic), 5 goals 
  • 1938: Leonidas (Brazil), 7 goals
  • 1950: Ademir (Brazil), 8 goals 
  • 1954: Sándor Kocsis (Hungary), 11 goals 
  • 1958: Just Fontaine (France), 13 goals 
  • 1962: Flórián Albert (Hungary), Valentin Ivanov (Soviet Union), Garrincha (Brazil), Vavá (Brazil). Drazan Jerkovic (Yugoslavia), Leonel Sánchez (Chile), 4 goals 
  • 1966: Eusébio (Portugal), 9 goals 
  • 1970: Gerd Muller (Germany), 10 goals 
  • 1974: Grzegorz Lato (Poland), 7 goals 
  • 1978: Mario Kempes (Argentina), 6 goals 
  • 1982: Paolo Rossi (Italy), 6 goals 
  • 1986: Gary Lineker (England), 6 goals 
  • 1990: Salvatore Schillaci (Italy), 6 goals 
  • 1994: Oleg Salenko (Russia), Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria), 6 goals 
  • 1998: Davor Suker (Croatia), 6 goals 
  • 2002: Ronaldo (Brazil), 8 goals 
  • 2006: Miroslav Klose (Germany), 5 goals 
  • 2010: Thomas Müller (Germany), 5 goals 
  • 2014: James Rodríguez (Colombia), 6 goals 
  • 2018: Harry Kane (England), 6 goals 
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