Handicapping the upcoming Champions League

Although soccer season might be coming to an end for a lot of leagues, we can still look at some available futures. There’s a multitude of wonderful things to bet on, such as Champions League, Premier League, MLS and others that are coming down to the wire.

With all of that said, the Champions League is one of the biggest tournaments there is. If you are unfamiliar, the format is that most of the top teams in the world being invited to a tournament to compete for one trophy. We are now at the point where this will be starting back up at the end of July. With so many other sports dealing with uncertainty, this will be one of the biggest events of the year.

This futures piece will help you get ahead of the curve, and it should help you decide where you should stack your chips for this tournament. And truth be told, it is a little more predictable than you might think.

The below table is created by using a Monte Carlo method, going through 10,000 simulations of the Champions League based on calculated efficiency metrics. This calculation is considered “hot,” which means the efficiency will adjust according to prior results in the algorithm.

Best bets

FC Barcelona to be eliminated in the quarterfinal (+160 at DraftKings)

This one seems like a cakewalk. The only reason the odds aren’t better than this is because Barcelona, technically, hasn’t even made the quarterfinals yet. However, they have looked amiss this entire season, and they look to have no chance of catching up to Real Madrid in La Liga. For them to be able to make the quarterfinals, they must sail past Napoli July 11, as the current aggregate sits at 1-1. They will have home field advantage at Camp Nou, but that does not mean much with no fans in the stadium.

That all said, I see them being able to cruise past Napoli in this second leg and move on to the quarterfinals. After that, they just haven’t convinced me that they’re capable of advancing any further. Especially if they end up getting paired against a team like Bayern Munich or PSG. I see that as the end of the line, and the simulations give them only a 40% chance of moving past this round. Their only hope would be for a favorable draw, which still would be a lower than normal probability of them going through.

Juventus to be eliminated in the Round of 16 (+100 at DraftKings)

The only reason these odds aren’t higher is because of their current opponent. As of now, they have one foot out the door of the Champions League, as they are losing to Lyon, 1-0, on aggregate. You can compare these odds to Real Madrid, who are down by one goal on aggregate, sitting at -835 to be eliminated in the round of 16. This is the best value you can get on a team that is down on aggregate heading into the second leg of Champions League. Additionally, although it might not show above, they only have a 39% chance of advancing into the quarterfinals, according to 10,000 simulations.

Hedge your bets

Manchester City, Bayern Munich to win Champions League (+320 and +275 at DraftKings, respectively)

These two teams have the best probability through the Monte Carlo simulations above, and the Vegas lines seem to agree. In fact, it’s a higher probability that one of these two teams will win the whole tournament than the field at this point. That said, I’m willing to hedge my bets and go forward with both of these clubs winning the whole enchilada.

The only thing currently keeping their probability from being any higher at this point is that they technically haven’t qualified for the semifinals. Manchester City plays against Real Madrid (currently up, 2-1, on aggregate), while Bayern Munich is going up against Chelsea (currently up, 3-0, on aggregate).

If and when both of these teams are able to make it to the quarterfinals, it’s wheels up at that point for either of these groups to make the finals and then go on to win. It’s hard not to see one of these teams holding up the Champions League trophy at the end of the season.

Dart throw

PSG to finish as runner-up (+600 at DraftKings)

This is currently my favorite long shot. It’s always good to look at these probabilities and think, “What are things that could actually happen?” PSG has already advanced into the quarterfinal, and they easily have the quality to win two matchups and go on to the finals. From that point on, I just don’t know if they have the ability to keep up with teams such as Manchester City or Bayern Munich.

Playing these simulations out computationally can show you the probability of things happening. Playing them out in your head and converging with the simulations is a way to play out situations that make sense. We currently have no idea how PSG will look when they come back from the break. Our first chance to see them will seemingly be in a friendly against Le Havre July 12, and then have their first league match July 24 against Saint Etienne. But this is still a play worth taking.