Handicapping the EPL Wednesday slate

The English Premier League has a four-game slate scheduled for Wednesday. For this and every slate, I’ll be offering up some of my top betting picks for that day’s games, hopefully providing significant intel and probabilities into the major slates.

With the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing an influx of games on an odd schedule. My goal is to provide you with understanding, probabilities and what could happen with all games on major slates that have three or four matches per day. The format for each game breakdown will be as followed:

• Matchup overview
• Predicted team expected goals based on matchup
• Poisson model predicted score probability
• Value plays based on Poisson model and current betting Lines
• My prediction
• Additional value bets (if any)

Newcastle @ Manchester City

1 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 8

Newcastle have found themselves in pretty decent form since starting back up. They started with a 3-0 thrashing of Sheffield United, one of the surprises of the season, and have taken eight points in their last five fixtures. The emergence of Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almirón have really jump-started their production as of late. Now playing the striker position, Dwight Gayle has begun to find his stride as the poacher he was brought in to be as well. They’ll need everything they can gather, however, as they will be facing a Manchester City team likely looking for revenge after missing out on the Premier League Title, and the most recent 1-0 loss to Southampton.

Man City is still the top football club in the world, according to calculated attacking and defensive efficiencies. The two teams played as recently as June 28, and Manchester City walked away with a win, while making it look a quite easy 2-0 victory. Man City made a mistake not starting their best 11 against Southampton and you cannot see them making that mistake once again. They will have something to prove this upcoming match.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle (DraftKings Sportsbook +950)
Betting pick: Under 3.5 goals (DraftKings Sportsbook -125)

Wolverhampton @ Sheffield United

1 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 8

Sheffield United have been one of the trickier teams to figure out since starting back up. They have a really attractive win against Tottenham recently. However, they have looked extremely sloppy against Newcastle, Arsenal, Manchester United and even Aston Villa. Right now, they’re conceding almost two goals a game against opponents. That’s not going to bode very well against Wolves.

Wolves should be hungry and well rested, as they’ve only played four games since starting back up. Not only that, but they recently lost 2-0 to an in-form Arsenal team, so they will be ready to go and play their very best lineup. Prior to that Arsenal matchup, they have provided clean sheets on every other matchup. With a Sheffield United team with a limited attack, they have a good probability, once again, to keep another clean sheet.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Sheffield United (DraftKings Sportsbook +750)
Betting pick: Moneyline match: Full-time result Wolves (DraftKings Sportsbook +107)

Burnley @ West Ham

1 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 8

In typical Burnley fashion, they have found themselves in the top-10 currently in the EPL table while keeping most games to either a 1-0 or 1-1 score line. The past three games, they have won 1-0 and drawn 1-1, and that doesn’t appear to look to change with this upcoming match against West Ham. On paper, statistically, this could be one of the most boring matches of the year. Combined, they are averaging 8.13 corners per game. That number averages in a premier league match closer to 10.0. This number indicates that there is very little attacking persona, comparatively to the rest of the field.

West Ham have perked up a bit from their horrific start. After losing to Wolves 2-0 and then to Arsenal 1-0, they have found a bit of form. Their most impressive performance thus far beating Chelsea 3-2, on a last-minute goal from Andriy Yarmolenko. Although West Ham sits 16th, and still in relegation territory, they seem to have found a lift and I do not believe they will be there for much longer.

With the current matchup, I see an extremely low-scoring game that could end up 1-0 either direction. With the probability of both of them scoring, I don’t imagine any score higher than 1-1.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Burnley (DraftKings Sportsbook +525)
Betting pick: Moneyline match: Full-time result tie (DraftKings Sportsbook +235)

Liverpool @ Brighton

3:15 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 8

The new Premier League champions have looked all over the place since starting back up. A 0-0 draw to Everton, a 4-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace and a 0-4 loss to Manchester City have all occurred in the few short weeks that Premier League has been back. The major question for Liverpool is: How seriously are they taking the season now that they have already locked up the Premier League title?

Remember, these are professionals who potentially have winning incentives, minutes incentives, goal incentives, and other items in their contracts we may not be aware of. Even if the team at large doesn’t have much to play for, there are some selfish values as to why players may continue to play at a high level. This is no different playing against Brighton. Liverpool have looked extremely good against bottom 10 teams in the table, scoring on average three goals and conceding none.

On the other hand, Brighton look like they are going to coast to the finish line and avoid relegation this season. They have looked lively since the start, beating Arsenal and Norwich while drawing against strong opponents such as Leicester City and Wolves. This is not a pushover team. They are well organized and, although limited attack, can be a tough match if you are not full engaged and ready to play. I still think Liverpool takes this one.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (DraftKings Sportsbook +700)
Betting pick: Moneyline match: Full-time result Liverpool (DraftKings Sportsbook -182)