Handicapping the EPL Sunday slate

The English Premier League has a four-game slate scheduled for Sunday. For this and every slate, I’ll be offering up some of my top betting picks for that day’s games, hopefully providing significant intel and probabilities into the major slates.

With the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing an influx of games on an odd schedule. My goal is to provide you with understanding, probabilities and what could happen with all games on major slates that have three or four matches per day. The format for each game breakdown will be as followed:

• Matchup overview
• Predicted team expected goals based on matchup
• Poisson model predicted score probability
• Value plays based on Poisson model and current betting Lines
• My prediction
• Additional value bets (if any)

Everton vs. Wolves

7 a.m. ET Sunday, July 12

Although Everton had looked extremely strong coming back from break, they have found themselves in a bit of a slump. They were able to start out with a draw against a determined Premier League Champion Liverpool. Not only that, but they had a higher xG at 1.4-0.9. They were then able to take down the likes of Norwich City and Champions League hopefuls Leicester City. However, it’s been a bit of a different story coming back from the break. They have been unable to find the back of the net, let alone create opportunities for their team to score. Everton, most recently, had a hideous 1-1 draw against Southampton where they had a lower xG 1.0-2.3. It didn’t even look that close watching it.

They go up against a Wolves team who look to be in a similar situation. Wolves, who had been absolutely prolific offensively before leaving for the break, has only been able to score five times in the six games since returning. Not only that, but they’ve only had 4 xG, so they’ve scored more than they were expected to. Everton is a tough team to figure out your offensive woes up against. This could end up being an ugly match.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Everton (DraftKings Sportsbook +540)
Betting pick: Total Goals – Under 2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -195)

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa

9:15 a.m. ET Sunday, July 12

Aston Villa will finally get a little more of a calm matchup. Their last three matchups have been brutal, going against Wolves, Liverpool and then Manchester United. They have held their own — defensively for the most part. However, they have shown no goal threat or capability to have creativity going forward. Their attacking woes are quite obvious, as scoring two goals in six matches is what will lead you to relegation. It’s a very important match for Villa, as with a Watford and West Ham win Saturday (speculatively), they will need this win in order to keep their hopes alive to stay in the Premier League for another Season.

Crystal Palace are currently on a four-game losing streak. Before their last game against Chelsea, they were unable to find the back of the net for three straight matches. They are also currently only averaging 0.6 xG per game and allowing one of the highest in the league conceded xG per game (above 2.0 xG). This is going to be a dreadfully boring slugfest most likely where both teams seem incapable of scoring. I genuinely see a situation where both teams come away with a win or draw, statistically it’s coming up as a pretty even xG scored, and odds aren’t even looking that good for results I can invision occurring. I’m going to stay away from this one.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Crystal Palace (DraftKings Sportsbook +700)
Betting pick: Pass

Arsenal vs. Tottenham

11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, July 12

A Derby! The North London Derby is going to feel a little different with no fans, isn’t it? Tottenham have dominated the series as of late. However, it’s been a while since they’ve played. Although home games are a little different in this environment, Tottenham have gone undefeated in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium/Wembley Stadium/White Hart Lane (at home) in their previous five matches dating back to 2014. They have looked dreadful, however, as they couldn’t even create opportunities against a lowly Bournemouth team destined for relegation. You have to look back to June 19 to find a game against a top team in the Premier League that they’ve played, and you find a Manchester United Matchup where they drew 1-1 while losing the xG matchup 0.4-1.6. Yikes.

Arsenal seem to have really found themselves in some form lately. Their most recent matchup they drew against Leceister, but before that they had won four matches in a row. They have looked extremely threatening going forward, as they are averaging about 1.6 xG per game currently. It looks like manager Mikel Arteta has really found the trick to their defensive prowess, as they are only allowing 0.9 xG per game as well. These Derbies are typically high scoring affairs and both teams will be determined to do well.

Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal (DraftKings Sportsbook +850)
Betting pick: Both teams to score: Yes (DraftKings Sportsbook -155)

Leicester City vs. Bournemouth

2 p.m. ET Sunday, July 12

I love the way Leicester City have been playing the last two matches. Since returning, they had been looking like a different team than when leaving for the hiatus. Leicester City had drawn against the likes of Watford and Brighton, and then losing to Everton while having a higher xG. However, they have found their stride here in the previous two matchups. Starting with Palace, they were able to take them down 3-0 and then a tough matchup with Arsenal had them drawing 1-1. They have been without their star attacking player, James Maddison, however, they have been able to figure out ways without him during this time. It was reported Maddison would not be making the trip to Bournemouth.

Their truly does not seem to be any way for Bournemouth to stay up at this point. They will really have to catch fire and defeat the likes of Leicester, Manchester City, Everton, and Southampton. Their probability of staying up has looked to diminish, and their season is almost over. They have fought quite valiantly though. Their matches just seem to be a bit unlucky. For instance, back on 7/01, they lost to Newcastle 4-1. However, their xG difference was 1.4-1.2. That’s extremely unlucky for what the actual game score should have been. You just can’t see a world where Bournemouth pulls this one out. However, I can see a game where they sit back and don’t do anything for 90 minutes and end up drawing. I’m playing this one safe, just in case.

Score prediction: Leicester City 2-1 Bournemouth (DraftKings Sportsbook +700)
Betting pick: Double chance Leicester City or Tie (DraftKings Sportsbook -560)