Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
In the second Gold Cup Quarterfinal match of the evening, Mexico will take on Honduras in one of the most lopsided knockout-round matchups this tournament will feature. This match is scheduled to start around 10 p.m. ET, but for some reason, North American soccer is the only soccer in the world that is unable to start its matches on time. Expect this match to kickoff close to 10:15 PM (with lineups rolling in around 9:15), but the slate on DraftKings will lock at the posted 10:00 p.m.
Betting Market Notes
Mexico is justifiably a heavy favorite in this match. According to the betting market, they have approximately a 67% chance of winning in regular time, while Honduras has just an 11% chance of pulling out a victory in the first 90 minutes. There is also approximately a 22% chance this match is tied at the end of regulation and goes to extra time.
Showdown Strategy
In an extreme situation like this, where one team is over six-times more likely to win than the opposition, the optimal strategy is to place a very heavy emphasis on rostering players from the favored side. The ideal cash-game build will likely feature four players from Mexico, and it wouldn’t surprise whatsoever if a five-player Mexico stack finishes atop the GPP standings.
Captain Selection
Look to Tiers 1 and 2 for the strongest and safest options to captain DraftKings lineups tonight. Tier 3 options will be significantly riskier but may provide an opportunity for GPP differentiation on a chalky slate for the more risk-tolerant DFS players.
Predicted Lineups
Mexico
Honduras
Tier 1
Orbelin Pineda – $9,000 – MEXICO #10
Orbelin Pineda came on halfway through Mexico’s first match in the Gold Cup and immediately cemented himself as the team’s best and most creative player on the right wing of their attack. Pineda averages 4.09 shots-per-90-minutes to go along with about 3.25 shot-assists-per-90-minutes. Overall, he stuffs the stat sheet at an elite level, especially when Mexico’s attack is humming. Perhaps the most enticing feature of Pineda’s resume on this slate is his reasonable $9,000 price tag. There is a strong case to be made for Pineda as Mexico’s top fantasy producer on the slate, yet he is the fourth-most-expensive expected starter in the DraftKings player pool. Pineda is an elite all-around selection on the slate, and my favorite candidate to Captain lineups in all contest formats.
Tier 2
Hector Herrera – $10,800 – MEXICO #16
Hector Herrera will likely start on the right side of the midfield for Mexico, but throughout the course of the game he should shift into a more central attacking position. The Atletico Madrid player has been a savant creating shots for both himself and his teammates all tournament. Herrera averages about 3.81 shots-per-90-minutes while assisting on approximately 4.70 shots-per-90-minutes. Additionally, given his central role in the midfield, should Honduras neutralize Mexico’s attack and apply pressure of their own, Herrera will likely make up for the lost attacking production through defensive actions, such as tackles won and interceptions. All in all, Herrera’s insane presence on the ball pulling the strings for Mexico’s attack warrants this steep price, and he is viable in contests of all formats.
Rogelio Funes Mori – $11,600 – MEXICO #11
Rogelio Funes Mori’s numbers from the group stage jump off the page. El Tri’s striker attempted almost 5.5 shots-per-90-minutes across his side’s first three matches of the Gold Cup, and there is no reason to think he’s going to slow down now. Funes Mori’s shot-taking numbers domestically, for Monterrey in Liga MX, are quite impressive as well at over 3.5 shots-per-90-minutes. Given the change in the system he is playing in now, in addition to the talent advantage Mexico holds over its opponents, the sharp jump in his metrics is reasonable and potentially sustainable. Funes Mori is the highest-priced player on this slate, and typically it is tough to stomach paying top-dollar for a player whose fantasy production is solely dependent upon his own shot totals. However, in this scenario, with Mexico heavily favored in this match and a track record of productive outings in very similar situations, Funes Mori is one of the strongest plays on this slate. His production profile is more suitable than GPPs, but he is an acceptable option in either format.
Jesus Gallardo – $5,800 – MEXICO #23
Jesus Gallardo is expected to start at left back for Mexico against Honduras. Gallardo started the latter two games of the group stage for El Tri after making a brief nine-minute cameo in their first match. Across his two starts, Gallardo sent in 2.5 crosses-per-match as Mexico’s suffocating pressure and formidable defense kept clean sheets in each match. The justification for Gallardo’s spot in Tier 2 is simple. At fullback, he will likely send in a handful of crosses to go along with his defensive production via tackles won and interceptions. This floor of production, coupled with the clean sheet equity and goal equity from his crossing and nearly 1.5 shots-per-90-minutes make him a steal at just $5,800. Consider rostering Gallardo in both cash games and GPPs tonight to save some salary while gaining high-upside exposure to the heavily favored team in this match.
Tier 3
Jesus Corona – $10,800 – MEXICO #17
Jesus Corona started the Gold Cup with a bang, when he sent in 17 crosses and scored 25.3 DraftKings points without registering a goal or an assist. In matches since, his crossing tallies and fantasy production on the whole have come back down to earth, but he still offers massive upside. Starting on the left wing for a heavily-favored side, he has the potential to be a remarkably productive role, especially for a player with a penchant for sending crosses into the box. The reason Corona lands in Tier 3 is his steep price tag. On a slate with a handful of viable high-priced options, tough decisions must be made. At a price just $800 below Rogelio Funes Mori and $1,400 above Hector Herrera, it is tough to justify rostering Corona in cash games. However, for this very reason, he makes for an intriguing differentiator in GPPs, where his ownership number should be abnormally low.
Deybi Flores – $3,800 – HONDURAS #20
Deybi Flores has consistently been Honduras’s highest-volume passer in each match during the group stage. While his game logs are uninspiring, his $3,800 price tag is extremely enticing on this slate, where we are going to prioritize multiple high-priced options on Mexico. Flores led Honduras in accurate passes in 2-of-3 games during the Gold Cup, including a few crosses and shot assists. Even in his worst outing to this point, Flores scored 4.5 DraftKings points, which would suffice for his bottom-dollar price tag on this slate. However, his upside far exceeds this mark, as shown by his performance in the first match of the group stage, where he scored over 10 DraftKings points. At the bottom of the player pool, there is inherent risk associated with every player. From the selection of salary-saving options on this showdown slate, Flores is the strongest and safest of the bunch.
Diego Rodriguez – $3,400 – HONDURAS #23
Throughout the group stage, Diego Rodriguez’s role in Honduras’s lineup was very free-flowing. He started the first two matches at left back and the third match on the right wing. One constant throughout Honduras’s first three matches was that Rodriguez is an attacking-minded player. Rodriguez’s attacking tendencies are concentrated in some of the most valuable areas of the field from a fantasy-scoring perspective. Deep on the left flank, Rodriguez will send in crosses and attempt to dribble past defenders to create shots for his teammates and draw fouls. Rodriguez disappointed last time out against Qatar, scoring just 1.9 DraftKings points, which brought his price down to a measly $3,400 after he scored 6.6 and 4.0 DraftKings points across the first two matches, respectively. Expect his production tonight to resemble his production levels in the first two outings, which would pay off his cheap price tag.
Tier 4
Erick Gutierrez – $6,400 – MEXICO #14
Erick Gutierrez’s per-minute metrics during the Gold Cup are impressive; per-90-minutes he is attempting over 2.0 shots, sending in 1.33 crosses, and assisting on 1.66 shots. However, he is priced at just $6,400 and grades as a Tier 4 option for this slate for one reason: playing time. Gutierrez averages just 59 minutes-per-start and will almost certainly sub off early. His instructions for each match are clear: do not pace yourself, go as hard as you can and give us everything you have for 60 minutes. He plays the role well, but for fantasy purposes it is far from ideal. It is difficult to justify rostering a player that projects to only play two-thirds of a match in cash games. His upside is significant, but since he has 33% less playing time to reach his ceiling, he can only be trusted as a potential GPP selection and nothing beyond that.
Alexander Lopez – $8,200 – HONDURAS #10
When the Honduras attack gets going, Alexander Lopez is almost always the reason. Lopez registered one goal and two assists during the group stage, where he scored at least 11.4 DraftKings points in all three matches. Most of Lopez’s action comes in the attacking-third, where he attempted and created at least two shots in each group stage match. Honduras is unlikely to possess the ball nearly as much as they did during the group stage, which will make Lopez’s job creating offense significantly harder. Lopez grades as a Tier 4 play because, while he is worth considering in GPPs, the expected lack of possession for his side makes him an unreliable fantasy option that cannot be trusted in cash games.
