Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saturday night will feature a pair of Gold Cup Quarterfinals, with Qatar and El Salvador kicking off at approximately 7:30 PM ET, followed by Mexico and Honduras kicking off around 10:00 PM ET. DraftKings has posted showdown slates for both matches and both will be covered here at FTN.
Disclaimer
As with any and all soccer slates, it is absolutely mandatory if you plan on playing DFS that you are available to check in during the hour before kickoff once lineups are confirmed. From match to match, soccer lineups vary massively. I will do my best to update this article as more information becomes available, but if I am not able to do so, ensure that all players included in your DFS lineup(s) are confirmed members of their team’s respective starting lineup.
Group stage results
In Group D, Qatar went 2-1-0 via a pair of victories over Honduras (2-0) and Granada (4-0) to go along with an enthralling draw against Panama (3-3) in their opener. Throughout the group stage, Qatar averaged 18.33 shots per game (2nd-most in the tournament) and allowed 8.00 shots per game. The upcoming World Cup hosts turned in a trio of respectable performances by handling business against inferior opposition and creating a bevy of big chances in each match.
In Group A, El Salvador finished 2-0-1 with a pair of wins over Guatemala (2-0) and Trinidad and Tobago (2-0) while losing a narrow match against Mexico (0-1). El Salvador attempted an average of 17.00 shots per game and allowed 9.67 shots per game across their first three matches.
Betting market
Currently, the betting market gives Qatar approximately a 54-percent chance of winning this match in regulation. Next, the market line implies about a 19-percent chance of an El Salvador victory at the end of regular time, and lastly, about a 27-percent chance of added time being needed to determine a winner. Overall, the total for this match sits firmly at 2.0 goals, evenly juiced to each the over and the under.
Showdown strategy
Given Qatar’s status as the favorite in this match, combined with their more predictable substitution patterns, an ideal cash-game build for this slate will likely feature at least three, possibly four, players from their side.
Also, to best utilize this article when building lineups, try to focus on Tier 1 and Tier 2 when selecting your team captain, especially in cash games. Tier 3 options are acceptable captains as well, however, they are likely more suited for captain selection in GPPs than cash games. Overall, try to avoid building lineups centered around TIER 4 pieces, as they are typically the riskiest selections. While they should be low-owned in GPPs, the stars will probably need to align perfectly for a Tier-4-heavy lineup to be a worthwhile GPP team.
Predicted lineups
Qatar
El Salvador
Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of the first Gold Cup Quarterfinal showdown slate that we have on Saturday night.
Tier 1
One player stands out above the rest on this showdown slate, making for a one-man tier 1 on Saturday’s first match of the evening.
Abdelaziz Hatim – DEF – $6,800 – QATAR #6
Not much makes sense about Abdelaziz Hatim’s status in the DraftKings player pool on this slate. For starters, he is certainly not a defender. Hatim is a midfielder through and through, and if anything, he is a more attacking-minded midfielder than anything else. However, DraftKings leaving him in the player pool as a defender adds upside to this play. There is no difference in the scoring systems for midfielders and defenders, aside from the potential three-point clean sheet bonus Hatim is eligible for as a defender (midfielders are not eligible for this bonus.) Throughout the tournament, Hatim has attempted 2.88 shots-per-90-minutes, while assisting on another 1.80 shots-per-90-minutes. Across his three starts, Hatim has created a pair of big chances for his teammates. Despite failing to record an assist throughout the group stage, if he continues to create chances at such an impressive rate, he will certainly put a tally in the assist column sooner rather than later.
Overall, Abdelaziz Hatem is the strongest play on this slate, thanks to his middle-of-the-road price tag. He will likely be the chalkiest player on the slate, but this is chalk worth eating, especially in cash games.
Tier 2
Tier 2 features the two highest-priced players on this showdown slate. Each player warrants his respective price tag, but most DFS players will be forced to choose just one to plug into their lineups.
Akram Afif – FWD – $11,800 – QATAR #11
Akram Afif is rightfully the highest-priced player on this slate. Afif, despite lining up as a striker for Qatar, is typically most effective when he is creating chances for his teammates. This is not to say that he won’t try to make his way onto the scoresheet himself, taking 2.02 shots-per-90-minutes, but his primary contribution to his team’s attack is through setting up his teammates for chances on goal. During the group stage, Akram Afif averaged a stunning 5.39 shots-assists-per-90-minutes, a tally that would rank miles ahead of every other player in the world across a larger sample of matches. Against stiffer (World Cup quality) competition, his shot creation numbers are wildly unsustainable. However, the betting market forecasts Qatar to handle business on Saturday night as expected, Afif will be a key contributor to their attack. Also, throughout the group stage, Akram Afif had a near-monopoly on corner kicks for Qatar, which has provided him with a strong floor of crossing production; Afif has averaged 3.67 crosses-per-game thus far during the Gold Cup. Lastly, it is important to note that Afif has played 267 out of a possible 270 minutes throughout the tournament. His ability to play full matches gives him an unmatched ceiling and floor of production on this slate. Akram Afif’s remarkable per-minute production levels and the added playing time compared to the high-priced alternatives on this slate make his steep price tag worth prioritizing.
Hassan Al Haydos – MID – $10,000 – QATAR #10
Hassan Al Haydos is Qatar’s team captain and midfield creator. Al Haydos is typically on penalty-kick duty for his nation, taking (and making) three out of the four penalties he has been on the field for in 2021. The only penalty kick he did not take was a miss by Akram Afif last time out against Honduras. Expect Al Haydos to step up to the penalty spot on Saturday evening instead of Afif, should Qatar earn a penalty in this match. Al Haydos is worthy of his five-figure price tag on this slate, thanks to his shot creation numbers, both for himself and others. Al Haydos is attempting approximately 2.18 shots-per-90-minutes and assisting approximately 2.73 shots-per-90-minutes as well. Overall, his shot creation metrics are some of the strongest on the team, and that shines through in the box score. Al Haydos has posted either a goal or an assist in six out of his last 10 games for either his domestic club (Al-Sadd) or country. The primary cause for concern regarding Al Haydos is his projected playing time. Since being removed from a Gold Cup tune-up match in early June, Al Haydos has averaged 74.5 minutes per-start. Additionally, when playing for his domestic club, Al-Sadd in the AFC Champions League, he averaged just 73 minutes per-start. It is nearly impossible to reasonably project Al Haydos to play a full 90-minutes on Saturday night, which makes it exceptionally difficult to warrant playing him over Akram Afif, specifically in cash games.
In tournaments, Hassan Al Haydos will likely garner significantly less attention than Akram Afif. In a low-total match, such as this one, scoring opportunities may be few and far between, which makes penalty-kick-duty even more valuable. Should Hassan Al Haydos get his chance to step up to the penalty spot against El Salvador, he will almost certainly find his way into the optimal lineup for this showdown. While this penalty kick equity is not large enough to warrant getting the nod over Afif in cash games, it makes him a strong and intriguing GPP option, given the difference in price and the expected difference in ownership.
Tier 3
Tier 3 is the deepest tier of options for this showdown slate. Players from both Qatar and El Salvador populate this tier, making for some critical decision points in both cash-games and GPPs.
Pedro Miguel – DEF – $8,400 – QATAR #2
Pedro Miguel has been the most consistent player on Qatar over recent years. Miguel, a staple of the Qatar XI, is an attacking-minded fullback whose shot creation metrics warrant his stiff price tag. Miguel typically pushes up the pitch and joins in the attack whenever he has the opportunity. The Portuguese import has assisted 1.67 shots-per-90-minutes during the Gold Cup, including 1.0 big-chance-per-90-minutes. Additionally, Miguel averages 4.67 crosses-per-90-minutes, which provides a strong floor and ceiling of production. If he fits into a lineup comfortably, without forcing numerous punts elsewhere, he is a great cash-game option with a moderate ceiling.
Almoez Ali – FWD – $9,200 – QATAR #19
Almoez Ali is the purest GPP option on Qatar’s roster. Ali is a pure striker who has attempted over 4.50 shots-per-90-minutes thus far in the Gold Cup. However, aside from his own shot attempts, he does very little work creating chances for his teammates (only one shot assist in three games this tournament.) Ali’s lack of peripheral production or shot creation outside of his own shot attempts will preclude him from being a viable cash-game option on this showdown slate, but his high-upside shot totals give him a remarkable ceiling. Also, please note that Ali is unlikely to play the full 90 minutes on Saturday, as he plays approximately 73 minutes per match. From a team-building perspective, it is likely a suboptimal strategy to pair Almoez Ali with Hassan Al Haydos in GPP lineups this weekend, as neither player will likely be on the pitch for the final 15-20 minutes of the match. Sacrificing 30-40 total minutes of production could prove fatal in GPPs, and pairing Almoez Ali, a shot vacuum, with his shot-creating running mate up from, Akram Afif, is a great way to correlate a lineup.
Jairo Hernandez – MID – $6,000 – EL SALVADOR #17
Jairo Hernandez left El Salvador’s last match in the 75th minute with an apparent injury. As of now, he is expected to feature in his squad’s starting-XI, but this is certainly a situation that will require special attention within the hour before kickoff. Hernandez averages 2.0 shots- and 3.0 crosses-per-90-minutes during the Gold Cup, providing a decent floor of shot-creating production that warrants cash-game consideration at a modest price. Although the case in favor of Henriquez is not quite as strong as the case in favor of a few of his opponents, the discount at just $6,000 provides the requisite salary relief to help fit the slate’s strongest plays into lineups on this tricky showdown slate.
Bryan Tamacas – DEF – $5,800 – EL SALVADOR #21
Bryan Tamacas’s spot in El Salvador’s starting-XI is not set in stone, as he must compete with Alex Roldan, potentially El Salvador’s most enticing and valuable player, for playing time. However, he started two out of the team’s three matches in the group stage, and if Tamacas gets the nod at fullback, he is one of the options in the $6,000-and-under range. Tamacas typically pushes very far up the field and joins into El Salvador’s attack at every possible opportunity. Additionally, he typically plays on the opposite side of the pitch as Jairo Hernandez, meaning that the two can slot into the same lineup without eating into each other’s production. Tamacas’s game logs are a bit inflated, with a pair of clean sheets in each of his starts, to go along with an assist in one of the matches. This recent production will likely push his GPP ownership up a bit too high for my liking in tournaments, but he remains a strong cash-game option given his attacking tendencies from the backline.
Tier 4
Abdelkarim Hassan – DEF – $6,200 – QATAR #3
Abdelkarim Hassan has lined up as a centerback for Qatar in their back-three throughout the Gold Cup. Typically, this position would not provide much fantasy production whatsoever. During this tournament, Hassan has been the exception to that rule. Domestically, he plays as an attacking-minded fullback for his club, Al-Sadd. During the AFC Champions League, Hassan averaged 1.36 shots-per-90-minutes, and during the group stage here he averaged 2.33 shots-per-90-minutes. His unattractive position in Qatar’s projected starting XI may deter the field from plugging Abdelkarim Hassan into their lineups, but he has proven worthy of this price tag. Consider filling out lineups in cash games and GPPs with Hassan, as he will likely be under-owned in all formats on Saturday night.
Walmer Martinez – FWD – $4,800 – EL SALVADOR #9
El Salvador will be without Narciso Orellana, one of their starting center midfielders, for this matchup with Qatar, as he has been suspended due to yellow card accumulation. His absence could cause a shake-up in the side’s starting XI, which may thrust Walmer Martinez into a starting role. Martinez has served exclusively as a “super-sub” throughout the tournament thus far, making a trio late-game cameos, but his production in his brief time on the pitch has been nothing short of impressive. Extrapolating his per-minute production would not be pertinent, given his limited playing time, but in a total of 23 minutes in the Gold Cup, Martinez has assisted on 2 shots, taken 3 shots, and scored 1 goal. His impressive showings could warrant increased playing time here in the knockout stages of the tournament, and if they do, $4,800 is far too cheap for a player with such a remarkable shot-creating ceiling. Focus all Martinez exposure to GPPs, as his expected playing time (likely candidate to sub off early if he starts) and production profile are too risky for cash games.
Joshua Perez – FWD – $8,000 – EL SALVADOR #8
Joshua Perez will likely start on the right-wing for El Salvador in this win-or-go-home matchup against Qatar. Perez is a creative winger who averaged 2.77 shots-assisted-per-90-minutes and 2.38 shots-per-90-minutes throughout the group stage. Additionally, he found the back of the net in three out of four of El Salvador’s World Cup Qualifying matches during the month leading up to the Gold Cup. Perez’s aggressive price tag is too steep to warrant cash-game consideration due to his likelihood of being subbed off, in combination with the expected game script for this match. However, his knack for creating shots for himself and others could land him in the GPP-winning lineup on Saturday night. Consider rostering Perez as a contrarian GPP option in a price range that features less volatile options.
Overall match analysis
On the whole, this should be a match that Qatar controls well enough to get through to the semifinals. However, El Salvador are certainly not drawing dead. According to the betting market, the underdogs have a 1-in-5 chance of winning this game in regular time. Using this balance of players throughout each tier, we should be well-positioned in both GPPs and cash games regardless of which way this match ends up going. If El Salvador pulls off the upset, their most prominent shot creators are featured here, as this is a team that generally lacks peripheral fantasy production. If Qatar keeps up their high level of play and emerges victorious, their offensive engines that consistently stuff the stat sheet across the board are our top targets on this slate.
