Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is the first part of a four-part EPL season preview series coming over the course of the week leading up to the kickoff of the 2021-22 season this weekend. As always, if you have any specific questions or comments, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam or in the FTN Discord.
Atop the English Premier League table, there is a clear-cut group of four clubs (the Big 4) that rank head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the field. Within this group, there are two sub-tiers, one featuring just Manchester City, and one featuring Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.
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Tier 1: The rightful heavy favorite
Manchester City
Last season: 1st
Odds to win EPL in 2021-22: -165, DraftKings Sportsbook
2020-21 summary
Manchester City were by far the best team in the EPL last season, thanks to the genius of manager Pep Guardiola to go along with the remarkable depth of their squad. Man City are able to spend on the transfer market unlike almost any other club in the world, and this has allowed the club to replace and back up their aging top-tier talent with incredible efficiency. The genius of Pep Guardiola also transformed this team into a more sustainable version of its previous self. Now, the team utilizes a possession-based approach that masks the relative defensive weaknesses while also preserving the legs of the side’s elite attackers.
Last year, Man City, much like the rest of the soccer world during the pandemic-ball era, dealt with numerous high-profile injuries. Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne, the team’s leading shot taker and creator of previous seasons, both missed substantial time last year. However, the team’s young talent, like Phil Foden, emerged and helped to compensate for the veterans’ drop in production.
Offseason transfers
Acquisitions
- Jack Grealish, Aston Villa, MID
- RUMOR: Harry Kane, Tottenham, ST
Losses
- Sergio Aguero, Barcelona, ST
- Eric Garcia, Barcelona, CB
2021-22 outlook
Manchester City are primed to dominate the Premier League once again this season. This side has won the Prem three out of the last five seasons. Both non-first-place finishes in the last half-decade came during seasons that Manchester City ran cold with poor finishing luck and one of their worthy competitors ran hot with extremely favorable finishing luck. This year, the team’s added depth on the transfer market and continued development of budding young stars should keep this team atop the Premier League table.
Expected scoring leader: Raheem Sterling or Harry Kane
If Manchester City are not able to get their purchase of Tottenham’s striker Harry Kane across the finish line, look to Raheem Sterling to lead the team in goals. Sterling has long been one of the most criticized players in all of England, but after a wonderful stretch of performances at the Euros this past summer, he proved that last year’s dip in goal scoring was just a blip on the radar. If City are able to acquire Kane, he is instantly the favorite to lead the side in goals. Kane led the Premier League in both goals and assists last season, and playing on a much more dominant side should only serve to improve his per-minute metrics.
Expected assist leader: Kevin de Bruyne
Kevin de Bruyne is one of the best shot creators of this generation, and his offensive genius is unmatched on this Manchester City roster. Last year, de Bruyne created approximately one assist every two matches, a mark over 33% better than anyone else in the league. Given he is entering his age 30 seasons, an eventual decline in production is surely in store eventually. However, even with a moderate decrease in goal-creating output, he should still lead this team in assists.
Potential breakout player: Jack Grealish
It is tough to call anyone on Manchester City a true “breakout” candidate, as this team is loaded with highly touted stars across the board. Jack Grealish broke out last season for Aston Villa, but he now has a chance to play a prominent role for the best team in the league, instead of a midtable side. Grealish was second in the Prem in expected assists per 90 last season, and his versatility in the midfield should make him an immediate favorite of manager Pep Guardiola. Should any of Manchester City’s returning studs along the front line falter, Grealish is primed and ready to step up and assume the role of the star on one of Europe’s best teams.
DFS analysis of play-style: Not a lot of peripherals, but massive production elsewhere.
Manchester City plays a very efficient style of soccer for real-match production. Unfortunately for DFS purposes, this involves minimal crossing from open play and a more selective shot-taking process. Do not expect City’s fullbacks to whip crosses into the box in high volume. However, Joao Cancelo, specifically, played a massive role in the team’s ball progression last year and could rack up shot assists in high volume this year.
Expected finish: 1st
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Tier 2: The competition
Chelsea
Last season: 4th
Odds to win EPL in 2021-22: +500, DraftKings Sportsbook
2020-21 summary
Midway through the 2020-21 campaign, Chelsea opted to fire Frank Lampard and replace him with Thomas Tuchel. Tuchel came in and immediately changed the playing style of this club, unlocking a level of play that the club had not reached in years. Ultimately, their Premier League campaign ended up a stressful one, when they secured a spot in the top-four on the final day of the season. However, in European competition, they upset Manchester City in the Champions League final. Under Tuchel’s guidance, Chelsea are a sure bet to be one of the best teams in the Premier League — the betting market rates them as the best non-Manchester City side in the league.
Offseason transfers
Acquisitions
- RUMOR: Romelu Lukaku, Inter, ST
Losses
- None
2021-22 outlook
Chelsea have not made any significant splashes in the transfer market yet. The side is rumored to be in the latter stages of contract negotiations with Romelu Lukaku, a striker currently under contract at Inter. If they sign Lukaku, he will immediately slot into the starting lineup up front where Chelsea are overloaded with attacking talent. There are currently 5-6 attackers on this roster who would start on almost every other non-Manchester City team in the Premier League. Most of these attackers are just entering their respective primes right now, and the best is yet to come for many of them.
Expected scoring leader: Timo Werner or Romelu Lukaku
If Chelsea bring in the services of Romelu Lukaku, he is a peak-age attacker who posted 0.71 expected goals per 90 in Serie A last season. Also, he would likely take the team’s penalties to help bolster his open play shooting production. If Lukaku is not signed, Timo Werner, the much-maligned German striker, is the favorite to lead Chelsea in scoring. Werner had a dismal finishing season last season, when he scored just 6 goals during a season when he registered 11.9 expected goals. All signs point to this being just a prolonged stretch of bad luck, as he has never underperformed his xG to this extreme in the past. An offseason to clear his mind and rid himself of any jitters he may have had last year will do him good, and on his impressive shot volume, he is bound to find the back of the net in bulk sooner rather than later.
Expected assist leader: Mason Mount
Mason Mount is an impressive young all-around attacking midfielder. He provides significant defensive production at the top Chelsea’s defense, and his durability will play in his favor over the course of the season. Mount has played at least 2,850 minutes in each of his last 3 seasons, and even without top-tier per-90 expected assist metrics, he should steadily climb the EPL assist leaderboards as the season wears on and his competitors miss time. Mount is constantly on the ball for Chelsea, as he led the team in shot assists and was 2nd on the team in passes into the penalty area per-90 last season (among players that played at least 1,350 minutes.) Given his consistent role pulling the strings for Chelsea’s attack and his durability, Mount is the obvious favorite to lead this team in assists this year.
Potential breakout player: Callum Hudson-Odoi
Callum Hudson-Odoi is entering his age-20 season this year, and all signs point to a breakout campaign for the English youngster. Hudson-Odoi contributes in all aspects of the attack; creating shots for himself, progressing the ball into the final third. Hudson-Odoi’s production profile is as well-rounded as it gets for a player of his age. As a player with such unique versatility, he can slot into Chelsea’s lineup just about anywhere they need, besides defense. Look for Callum Hudson-Odoi to become a mainstay of Chelsea’s starting-XI this season while stuffing the stat sheet in the process.
DFS analysis of play-style: DFS-friendly structure with significant peripheral performance throughout the lineup
Chelsea’s attack should be a fairly balanced unit this season, as this team is loaded with young talent up front. Additionally, this side attempted 13.5 crosses per 90 last year, the fifth-highest mark in the Premier League. On a match-to-match basis, pinpointing which attacker will thrive may prove difficult for the field, but this will be a great opportunity for us to gain an edge over the field in DFS contests.
Expected finish: 2nd
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Liverpool
Last season: 3rd
Odds to win EPL in 2021-22: +550, DraftKings Sportsbook
2020-21 summary
Last season, Liverpool were a fantastically unlucky side for the majority of the season. Initially, the injury bug bit the Reds harder than just about any other team in the Premier League when Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Joel Matip and Fabinho, the team’s top four options at centerback, all went down with injuries simultaneously. Throughout the season, however, the side was able to battle back for a dramatic third-place finish that secured another berth in the UEFA Champions League.
Offseason transfers
Acquisitions
- Ibrahima Konate, RB Leipzig, CB
Losses
- Georginio Wijnaldum, PSG, MID
2021-22 outlook
With a renewed bill of health, Liverpool once again expect to contend for the league title during the 2021-22 campaign. Liverpool are one of the most analytically advanced clubs in the world, which guides their squad selection and playing style on a weekly basis. This combination of sharp decision-makers at the top, coupled with one of the world’s best managers, Jurgen Klopp, fosters continual success. Although they may be on the wrong side of their preferred age curves at a few places throughout the squad, there is more than enough talent to push for another spot in the top four.
Expected scoring leader: Mohamed Salah
Expect more of the same from The Egyptian King this season, as he is the heavy favorite to lead Liverpool in goals once again. Salah has taken at least 3.5 shots per 90 in every season for Liverpool, and despite the team’s overall struggles at times last season, he finished perfectly in line with expectations, scoring 16 non-penalty goals on the year. Although there is one notable presence waiting in the wings (see: Liverpool’s potential breakout player) to emerge as the next great Liverpool attacker, Mohamed Salah should rule this front line for at least one more season.
Expected assist leader: Trent Alexander-Arnold
Liverpool are a unique club in the ways they progress the ball into the attacking third and the ways they create chances. Liverpool’s fullbacks are tasked with much of the ball progression that is typically handled by midfielders. Then, in the final third, the fullbacks send crosses into the box in high volume. Trent Alexander-Arnold is an incredible ball-striker, and his ability to serve the ball up on a platter on an open-play cross is uncanny. Look for Alexander-Arnold to close in on double-digit assists once again this year.
Potential breakout player: Diogo Jota
Quick fun fact: Diogo Jota’s listed surname is just the letter J, pronounced “jota” in Portuguese, spelled out, and he is effectively referred to as “Diogo J.”
Now that that is out of the way, Diogo Jota’s profile to this point in his career points towards him been a potential superstar in the near future. At just 24 years old, Jota ranks amongst the world’s best attackers in most shooting metrics and pass-reception metrics. The ability to create space in the attacking third to receive passes within is a skill, and Jota has already mastered it. This mastery will enable Jota to continue to create shots for himself and others at an elite level, while improving on his raw totals through increased playing time.
DFS analysis of play-style: Massive peripheral production, coupled with top-end goal scoring.
Liverpool’s attack is heavily concentrated within just a few attacking mainstays. Their front line should persist this season as a group of elite DFS options, while the team’s fullbacks, typically Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are elite producers thanks to their attacking output and crossing volume.
Expected finish: 3rd
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Manchester United
Last season: 2nd
Odds to win EPL in 2021-22: +750, DraftKings Sportsbook
2020-21 summary
Manchester United rode a fantastic hot streak to an undeserving second-place finish in the Premier League last season, thanks to some lucky finishing by just about every attacker on their roster, sans Anthony Martial. Bruno Fernandes led the way on this front, scoring 18 goals on 15.4 expected goals, while Edinson Cavani pushed for the title of the luckiest finisher on the roster by scoring 10 goals on 7.4 expected goals last season. Overall, the talent on this roster was absolutely deserving of a top-four finish in the Premier League, however, they were realistically more comparable to the sixth- or seventh-best team in the Premier League than the top team in the Premier League, which their second-place finish may not accurately display.
Offseason transfers
Acquisitions
- Jadon Sancho
Losses
- None
2021-22 outlook
Manchester United made one of the sharpest signings of the entire summer when they went out and acquired Jadon Sancho. I cannot understate how talented Sancho is. Typically, blossoming players have one strength they hang their hat on while they develop all of the ancillary skills of a full-blown star. From the outset of Sancho’s career, he has bucked this trend by simply being elite at everything. The 21-year-old should be able to fill any role in Manchester United’s attack that they want, providing a safety net in case of sustained underwhelming performances across their front line. This added insurance should help to insulate United against potential regression to the mean that may knock the side down the table a few spots. Expect Manchester United to be in the thick of the top-four race once again this year.
Expected scoring leader: Bruno Fernandes
The two leading candidates for this spot are Bruno Fernandes and Edinson Cavani. Fernandes edges out Cavani here for two primary reasons: Fernandes will likely take the team’s penalties when on the field and Cavani’s advanced age could limit his playing time as the season wears on. Last season, in his debut campaign for Manchester United, Fernandes attempted 3.19 shots per 90, including nearly 0.5 free-kick shots per 90. Overall, Fernandes should have an abundance of opportunities to fire shots on target and score goals for United.
Expected assist leader and breakout player: Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho’s shot creation metrics are awe-inspiring from top to bottom. Sancho assisted 2.93 shots per 90 last year while playing over 3.5 passing into the penalty area per 90. These marks rank in the 98th and 99th percentile amongst attacking midfielders and wingers over the course of the last year. Sancho is simply one of the best players in the world right now, and, given he is only 21 years old, there is reason to believe there may be further improvement in store for him down the line.
Jadon Sancho is also Manchester United’s likely breakout player. Although, it is tough to call it a breakout in his case, as he has tallied nearly 14 assists per season over the last three years. However, this season is Sancho’s opportunity to put his wide array of skills on full display in the biggest league in the world ahead of the World Cup next summer.
DFS analysis of play-style: Transforming and relatively unknown, but fairly average/normal across the board last year
Last season, Manchester United’s style of play did not have any unique quirks or DFS exploits. For the most part, the entire attack ran through Bruno Fernandes, who shouldered a massive load creatively. Fernandes assisted on 94 shots last year, the most in the Premier League, while he was simultaneously 1 of only 13 players in the premier league to have taken over 3 shots per 90. This year, the team’s attack is likely to transform dramatically with the introduction of another elite shot creator. Overall, there is nothing especially notable about United’s playing style, specifically for DFS purposes.
Expected finish: 4th
