Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN daily fantasy soccer guide! For those of you who are DFS soccer beginners, this article will serve as a baseline of where to start with basic research strategies and roster construction.
COVID-19
Sports have been impacted by the pandemic as much as any other space. Many of the sporting leagues around the world are not permitted to have fans in attendance, essentially ripping away ‘home-field advantage.’ Such an advantage has been thought to have played a large role in soccer for years, and now we have backable data to support that.
In Germany’s top flight [Bundesliga], since playing matches without fans, the home team has won 20 of 73 matches (27.4%). That’s down from 43.3% before the hiatus. Similar patterns can be seen in various leagues around the world. Without fans, it’s no coincidence that the home sides are scoring less, and in turn, losing more. Be careful about how much weight you put into home-field advantage until further notice.
Five Subs
Another COVID-19 related implication has been the substitution allotment moving from three to five. Teams are able to use fresh legs due to the hiatus predictably taking players out of full fitness. Tread cautiously in player selection, as some players have more of a tendency to sub off earlier than others. This is especially true in showdown formats.
Once COVID-19 has run its course, we can safely disregard the above analysis. Until then though, those factors will play quite a role in how you should be building your lineups.
Onto the more timeless elements of DFS soccer:
Vegas
As is the case with every other DFS related sport, Vegas odds should play a role in your soccer DFS lineup building process. Vegas stays in business for the simple reason that the pre-match odds are, by and large, very close to the final result. Use it to your advantage instead of opposing it. There will be times to go against the grain, as Vegas odds typically go hand in hand with ownership (just like in any other sport).
Set Pieces
Set pieces are the most important concept to grasp in this sport for DFS. Set pieces are merely opportunities to cross the ball into the box in hopes of creating a goal.
Each team typically has one or two designated set-piece takers. Players who have a role on said set pieces easily accumulate crossing points (worth 0.7), as well as shots assisted (worth 1.0). A team’s designated set-piece taker will also, typically, be one of the more creative/attacking-minded players on the team, which generally boosts his/her upside. Set-piece takers on large favorites are usually strong options for cash game formats.
Team News
Lastly, team news is extremely crucial to consistent success in soccer DFS. Lineups are ALWAYS released about an hour before kickoff. It’s crucial to look at who each team is fielding to ensure you are not missing anything. A large favorite could be resting their set-piece taker, which would thrust another player into that role. Same as NBA DFS or NFL DFS. If James Harden sits out for a game, you’d expect other Rockets to have an uptick in usage and, therefore, exceed their salary-based expectations. The same can be said here in soccer DFS.
Variance
There’s a lot of predictability to soccer. The Manchester City’s of the world will always dominate the Aston Villa’s of the world in possession, set-piece opportunities, shots and goals. There’s plenty of goal variance too though, and you should use it to your advantage. A lot of times, fading a high owned goal dependent forward for a lower owned one can be the difference between you and first place.
