Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The English Premier League is back in action and FTN has you covered. For this Showdown between Liverpool and Brighton, as well as all other soccer coverage, we’ll be offering a DFS-catered approach to help pack your bankroll with profit.
Goalkeeper strategy
In a match like this with a solid favorite, we can safely infer that Alisson ($8,200) will be chalk (30-40%) while Mat Ryan ($4,400) will be 10-15%. Brighton scoring over 0.5 goals is -165, so I can’t really get behind the idea of using Alisson at that ownership. Ryan on the other hand can be sprinkled in your builds if he goes on a barrage of saves and outscores other salary savers. It’s still important to use some Alisson too, but I recommend going under the field by half his ownership or so.
Match and player analysis
Liverpool is a rather easy team to break down, but the captain options are tough to settle upon for Showdown formats. On one hand you have Mo Salah ($11,400) and Sadio Mane ($10,800), who bring the upside. The Reds have locked up the title but have struggled lately, recently were baffled 4-0 by Manchester City which probably feels like a slap in the face to them and their fans. I’d expect both wingers and the rest of Liverpool to be up for this one. Salah is the preferred captain between the two but it’s close. Next up we have Trent Alexander-Arnold ($9,800) and Andrew Robertson ($7,200), who split set pieces (TAA takes the majority share though). Both are captain viable for us, mainly in game-scripts where the match is low scoring. TAA will absolutely be the higher-owned player both in CPT and UTIL.
For some reason, some Brighton players are priced very highly for no reason. Neal Maupay ($8,600) especially stands out as someone who is overpriced. I wouldn’t mind using him in this spot, but that price is wild. Either way, he’s worth some exposure as a low-owned player who can pop in with a goal and turn up in the optimal lineup. Aaron Mooy ($7,400) and Alexis Mac Allister ($5,000) should be splitting the set pieces but are priced fairly. Without much upside but with safe floors, they are best left as utility fillers. Aaron Connolly is someone who stands out as a potentially low owned, cheap flier who could pop in with a goal. Worthy of a chunk of exposure in utility to run back your Liverpool stacks.
Stack ideas
CPT Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson, Neal Maupay — Captain TAA will be chalky but Maupay allows differentiation. Ideally, an early Maupay goal leads to a cross barrage by the Liverpool fullbacks as they chase the match. You could also flip-flop Robertson into CPT and Alexander-Arnold into utility.
CPT Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, Divock Origi — A Liverpool rout. We personally feel this scenario is unlikely. Plus, you miss out on the floors of TAA and Robertson. Nevertheless, it’s an idea.
CPT Andrew Robertson, Alisson, Liverpool Winger — Robertson goal involvement with an expensive winger en route to a low-scoring, Liverpool clean sheet is the ideal script in this build.
CPT Neal Maupay, Mo Salah, Sadio Mane — The inverse of the first build listed, except Liverpool do not struggle to score. They rifle with confidence after trailing. Maupay in the CPT will be extremely low owned. I still think it’d be beneficial to grab Alexander-Arnold or Robertson in a Brighton captain lineup though.
CPT Aaron Connolly, Aaron Mooy or Alexis Mac Alister, Mo Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold — Connolly in the captain allows for a lot of creativity. Pair him with another Brighton player hoping for correlation. Obviously an extremely unique build, but could pay dividends if Brighton ends up getting a result.
Other notable options
Divock Origi ($7,600) is slated to start at striker over Roberto Firmino. He’s not the most clinical goal scorer around, but theoretically gets on the scoresheet in this spot once every three if you played this match out 100 times.
Jordan Henderson ($7,000) and Georginio Wijnaldum ($3,400) leave much to be desired on both floor and upside. I’d be most willing to use Wijnaldum in my builds. That said, each are easy fades or a sprinkle of exposure at best.
Naby Keita ($6,000) is in the mix, but doesn’t pop off the page. He’s a hybrid midfielder who can pop up with some upside at times, but the price does not reflect his current role in the attack.
