Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Major League Soccer is back in action and Fade the Noise has you covered. For this Showdown between San Jose and Seattle, as well as all other soccer coverage, we’ll be offering a DFS-catered approach to help pack your bankroll with profit.
San Jose Earthquakes (+230) @ Seattle Sounders (+105)
9 p.m. ET Friday, July 10
Goalkeeper strategy
MLS matches typically are much higher scoring than the major European leagues. The defenders in this league are simply not as disciplined or skilled. For that reason, GKs in MLS showdowns especially are less viable than in EPL, La Liga or Bundesliga. Both teams to score is -180 (64%). One goal against your GK will more or less ruin that lineup, but they are still worthy of consideration because an unlikely clean sheet still makes them a very valuable asset. Both Stefan Frei ($7,000) and Daniel Vega ($5,800) are worth about 20% exposure in my eyes. I’d go 10-15% on one and 20-25% on the other assuming you run multiple entries. Or just fade them altogether in hopes of both teams finding the back of the net (which is obviously very possible).
Match and player analysis
The favorites Sounders played their first two matches without star playmaker Nico Lodeiro ($11,200), who was out with a nagging thigh injury. The Uruguayan is now fully fit and raring to go. He’s a lock in all formats whether that be in CPT or utility. He should overtake set pieces from João Paulo ($8,600) who had been taking them before. Paulo’s a guy who relied on that aforementioned set piece duty for value, but now that it’s likely gone, he’s someone to consider going under the field on, especially having a strong game log. The casual players may flock to him because of it. The Sounders attack rounds out with Raúl Ruidíaz ($10,600), Jordan Morris ($9,600) and Christian Roldan ($7,800). Morris was running hot before the hiatus, but he’s a streaky player and is my least favorite of the trio, all things considered. Ruidíaz is the more consistent player and goal scorer, while Roldan is somewhat of a hybrid attacking mid. If we see Miguel Ibarra ($4,200) start on the wing instead of Roldan, Ibarra immediately becomes a top value on the slate and Roldan is less appealing in that scenario, as he’d drop into more of a holding midfield spot. Kelvin Leerdam ($6,000) and Joevin Jones ($4,600) are pretty reliable value targets and have freedom to get forward under Brian Schmetzer.
On the other side, San Jose were in desolate form heading into the break (seven losses, one draw in their last eight dating back to last season). If anything, it helps them because their squad is pretty talented. The issue is that the Sounders have a very sturdy defense, so I’m not sure how many chances they’ll be able to carve out in this particular spot. Cristian Espinoza ($10,200) and Magnus Eriksson ($9,200) are the set piece takers and main creators. Again, it’s a tough spot for guys who rely on volume, but the floors with these two are still pretty safe despite the high prices. There’s also rumors of Eriksson being out of favor with the manager and could sit out, which obviously would boost Espinoza. My favorite Earthquake in a general sense is Vako Qazaishvili ($8,400) due to his creation abilities and shot volume. He’s a dream for DFS who usually goes under the radar. That said, he’s still a tournament option when you factor in his price and matchup. Nick Lima ($4,000) would be a great option at 4K if starting at right-back, with his preferred right foot, but if at left back I’d sway my interest. Tommy Thompson is a potential value if starting ($3,600).
Build ideas
Cash build: CPT Nico Lodeiro, Miguel Ibarra, Cristian Espinoza — Lodeiro is arguably the best player in fantasy MLS and Espinoza is also fantastic for fantasy, especially if Eriksson misses. Ibarra is a clear-cut top value if starting. This is the ideal base for a cash build in our eyes.
GPP: CPT Nico Lodeiro, Vako Qazaishvili, Danny Hoesen — A low-owned stack of Qazaishvili to Hoesen, giving San Jose a lead, forces Seattle to chase. Nico eats in that scenario with floor points.
GPP: CPT Vako Qazaishvili, Nico Lodeiro, Raul Ruidíaz — A low-owned Qazaishvili is always appealing. He may not be low owned in total, but he will be in CPT.
