Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Seattle Seahawks.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Seattle Seahawks
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Kelley: Geno Smith
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Tyler Lockett
Kelley: Jason Myers
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Geno Smith Loses Job to Sam Howell
Kelley: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is the Seahawks’ Leading PPR WR
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba is ready to take a big leap forward as a sophomore. He was tied for the team high in targets in the last six games of the season with 25 — he could lead Seattle in targets along with catches in his second season and I wouldn’t be surprised. He won’t have the same kind of aDOT or ceiling as DK Metcalf, but I definitely think he could top Tyler Lockett’s numbers. JSN started slowly in his rookie season due to a hamstring and hand injury, but he became more involved as the season continued. Smith-Njigba is locked into an everyday role in the slot, and he excelled in that role as a rookie. His value lies in PPR leagues, but I also think he can knock on the WR3 door in half point formats. JSN only had four touchdowns last season, but two came in his final four games, and they were both game-winning touchdowns in the final minutes. Not only did he play more and run more routes as the season progressed, his role in the red zone grew as well (two fewer red zone targets than Lockett).
Kelley: Geno Smith
Geno Smith went from a QB5 finish in 2022 to QB19 in 2023. By points per game, the falloff was less similar (QB8 to QB24). By PFF grade, he … was actually better in 2023, with his overall grade climbing from 79.8 to 82.9 and his passing grade from 76.1 to 82.1. What made the difference? Pressure. Smith was pressured on about one-third of his dropbacks in 2022 (34.0%) but more than two-fifths (40.3%) in 2023. Every quarterback struggles when pressured, and Smith is no exception — his passer rating dropped from 105.12 to 76.19, and his yards per attempt from 7.97 to 5.90.
So can the Seahawks keep him cleaner in 2024? Injuries ravaged the offensive line last year, so even a bit of injury luck should help out a lot. Signing Laken Tomlinson and George Fant and drafting Christian Haynes should help as well. Ryan Grubb’s University of Washington offensive scheme promises more excitement than the team has had as well. Smith isn’t likely to return to QB5 again. But you can get him at QB23 in drafts right now, and he’s pretty likely to at least be a mid-range QB2 if not better.
Busts
Meaney: Tyler Lockett
Lockett is fresh off a season where he finished as WR43 in fantasy points per game, so I don’t think many are bothered by his WR51 price tag. I’m here to tell you to take a shot on someone else in that range, like his teammate mentioned above, Jameson Williams or Rashid Shaheed. Or better yet, attack WR early in your draft, and target your second or third running back (Zamir White? James Conner?), or your QB1 (Jordan Love, Brock Purdy) around pick 100. Lockett’s 9.6 fantasy points per game, 11.3 yards per catch and 894 yards were his lowest totals since 2018. He had his streak of 1,000-yard seasons end at four, and his five receiving touchdowns were the fewest he scored in a season since 2017. He led the Seahawks in targets (122), and he checked in ahead of JSN in terms of catches and yards, but JSN is coming, and DK is the WR1 in Seattle.
Kelley: Jason Myers
A kicker! Sorry for possibly being unexciting here, but the only other real bust candidate I can identify in Seattle is Tyler Lockett, and he’s already going outside the top 50 receivers. But Myers is coming off of consecutive seasons as a top-four kicker in fantasy, and that run comes to an end in 2024. Myers’ fantasy success in recent years was a quantity-over-quality thing — only Justin Tucker attempted more field goals the last two years (80) than Myers’ 79 — and Myers’ success rate wasn’t any great shakes, with a field goal conversion rate last year of 83.3% that was 22nd of 33 kickers with at least 10 field goal attempts. If the Seahawk offense makes the strides we expect in 2024, several of his field goals likely become extra points, and combine that with decreased efficiency, and Myers probably drops out of the top-10 kickers in 2024.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Geno Smith Loses Job to Sam Howell
Geno Smith only has one strong season on his resume in his 10 seasons in the NFL. I certainly bought into his 4,000 yard-season in 2022 that saw him rock a 69.4% completion rate and 30:11 TD:INT ratio. However, he took a step back last season and now has to learn a new system in Seattle. Smith is serviceable as a player, and I think he’s a decent QB2 in superflex leagues, but there’s no ceiling. He only had one game last season with more than two passing touchdowns, and he had one or zero TDs in eight of his 15 games. Smith wasn’t as accurate last season, and he saw a decline in his passing yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns and rushing yards. Sam Howell’s 21:21 TD:INT ratio from last season is nothing to write home about, but he has a decent arm and new OC Ryan Grubb loves to attack deep down the field. It would likely take an injury or poor performance for Howell to play, but if he has a strong camp and Geno struggles throughout the season, we could see Howell.
Kelley: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is the Seahawks’ Leading PPR WR
Through Week 12 last year, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were basically in lockstep. Metcalf was WR29 at 85.8 PPR points; Lockett was WR35 at 83.5. Over the last six weeks, it changed in a big way. Metcalf was WR5 (73.6), while Lockett was WR34 (39.9). As a longtime Lockett stan, I’m forced to admit that, turning 32 in September, his days as a big-time fantasy contributor are likely over.
That leaves Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf currently carries a WR20 ADP, while JSN’s is WR47. So Metcalf is the heavy favorite to lead the team in receiver fantasy scoring. (And, truth be told, he probably will be, but “Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a lot more points in 2024” is just a boring way to phrase a bold prediction.) Here’s where I am, though: JSN was basically a slot-only weapon in college — in his one full season at Ohio State, he played 516 of his 581 snaps (88.8%) in the slot, and he turned that into 1,606 yards. As a rookie in Seattle, he was still primarily slot, but the rate fell by a lot, down to 67.9%. And in 2024, Ryan Grubb’s offense and the departures of Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly tell us the Seahawks are going to (a) run a lot more three-receiver sets and (b) spread the field more. Get Metcalf and Lockett out wide and deep, and let Smith-Njigba do exactly what we know he does as well as anybody, and in PPR, he’s going to tally up a huge number of receptions and turn that into a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns.
