Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The San Francisco 49ers.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: San Francisco 49ers
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Brock Purdy
Kelley: George Kittle
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Christian McCaffrey
Kelley: Christian McCaffrey
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Brock Purdy Is the QB1
Kelley: Jauan Jennings Is a Top-50 WR
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Brock Purdy
Purdy answered any questions you had for him last season en route to a QB6 finish in fantasy. All he did was finish fifth in passing yards (4,280), first in yards per attempt (9.6), second in completion percentage (69.4%) and third in passing touchdowns (31). He did that in his second season and first as a full-time starter. There were people still begging for Trey Lance to win the job this time last year as Purdy was coming off an elbow injury (check out the ADPs below). Now he’s had another year to learn Kyle Shanahan’s system and he still has all the same playmakers and YAC monsters he had a year ago. Yes, Brandon Aiyuk will be with the 49ers come Week 1. Purdy was a value last year and he’s a value again as QB12 off the board on average. If I miss on Jordan Love around pick 100, I tend to grab Purdy in the following round.
Kelley: George Kittle
George Kittle was a rookie in 2017. So from 2018 through 2023, the 49ers had exactly one non-Kittle tight end top 50 PPR points in a season, Jordan Reed in 2020 (73.1). The team’s approach to the position has been “Kittle’s great, and if he’s out we don’t really care.” But this offseason, the team clearly wanted to change that. They signed Brock Wright to an offer sheet only to see the Lions match it and retain Wright. So the 49ers turned around and added Logan Thomas instead. No, Wright and Thomas aren’t Kittle, but there appeared to be a clear plan in San Francisco to strengthen the tight end depth, and it seems to me the main reason for that would be a desire to have the tight end more involved in 2024. That starts with Kittle, who was PFF’s top-graded tight end a year ago and has at least 2.2 yards per route run in five of the last six years. He’s TE8 in early ADP, but I think he’s a solid top-four tight end.
Busts
Meaney: Christian McCaffrey
I can’t see CMC falling outside the top five among backs when the season is over unless he suffers an injury. I’m assuming he’ll be healthy for most of the 2024 season, although health has been an issue in the past. There’s also a world where the 49ers give him fewer touches in order to keep him fresh. They’ve been so close to a Super Bowl over the past few seasons, and the window is closing. It’ll be very hard for San Francisco to keep this roster together after this season. They may decide to lighten the workload, and if the first overall pick in drafts finishes the season outside the top 10 overall, or behind 3-4 running backs, then he’d be considered a bust. I’d consider a wide receiver over him at first overall, but I’d still take him as the first back off the board. However, I believe a decline in touches is coming, and there are reports from those who follow the team that they could become more pass happy in 2024.
Kelley: Christian McCaffrey
To be clear, I would still take Christian McCaffrey first in my fantasy drafts in 2024 (the latest I could really argue is third after Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, in some order). But just playing the odds here, we have to concede there’s a very real chance of some sort of dropoff. McCaffrey had 339 touches last year — in the last decade, 58 players have had at least 300 touches. Taking out the 2023 examples and the second-year suspensions/sit-outs (Adrian Peterson in 2015-2016, Le’Veon Bell in 2017-2018), and we’re left with a 50-name sample. Those 50 players averaged 338.9 touches and 21.9 PPR points per game in their season of 300-plus touches, and then 233.3 touches and 16.0 PPG the next year. Only six of our 50 players increased their touches the next year, and four of those six were 25 or younger — the exceptions were Derrick Henry in 2019-2020 (25 and 26 years old) and McCaffrey himself in 2022-2023 (26 and 27).
McCaffrey is coming off 339 touches, turning 28, and running behind an offensive line in San Francisco that is increasingly questionable. I’m still drafting him No. 1, but there’s huge risk there, and that’s worth considering if you’re wanting to avoid risk.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Brock Purdy Is the QB1
I’m doubling down on Purdy here. He doesn’t have the rushing floor to finish as QB1, but keep in mind Dak Prescott was QB3 last season (20.2 points per game), despite only having 242 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The 49ers’ QB can run and he showed us that at times last season, especially in the playoffs. It’s unlikely to expect anything more than 200 yards on the ground and 200 would be a big win. Purdy could lead the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, and that wouldn’t surprise anyone. The way this happens is we see a decline in rushing touchdowns from Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, which I expect to see. Dak takes a step back due to a tougher schedule and Lamar Jackson runs less with King Derrick Henry in town. A lot would need to happen in order for Purdy to finish as the best QB in fantasy football. Either way, his QB12 price tag makes him a fantastic target.
Kelley: Jauan Jennings Is a Top-50 WR
“Third-and-Juaan” was absolutely going to be the Super Bowl MVP back in February if the 49ers had held on after both a touchdown reception and a touchdown pass. On the other hand, he’s three years into his career and has only totaled 216.1 PPR points in those three years, a number that wouldn’t have even been top-25 among receivers in 2023. But every time he’s been called on for the 49ers, Jennings has produced — per our FTN Fantasy splits tool, Jennings has averaged 46.3 yards and 11.4 PPR points per game in 12 career games with at least 5 targets:
Add in the situations of the other receivers in San Francisco — rookie Ricky Pearsall started camp on PUP, Brandon Aiyuk is dissatisfied and at least theoretically on the trade block, Deebo Samuel has never played a full season — and Jennings has a good shot at being called on far more in 2024.
