Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Jacksonville Jaguars.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Brian Thomas Jr.
Kelley: Christian Kirk
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Gabe Davis
Kelley: Travis Etienne
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Trevor Lawrence Throws 35 Touchdowns
Kelley: Trevor Lawrence Sets a Career-High in Pass Attempts
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas was the second LSU wide receiver taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and has a lot to offer, just like his former teammate Malik Nabers. At 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds, Thomas has the size and length to make all the catches. He’ll make an immediate impact in fantasy thanks to his terrific athleticism and ability to get down the field. The 21-year-old turned heads at the NFL combine with his 4.33-second 40-yard dash. Thomas can get up to top speed very quickly and he can create separation with ease. It’s part of why he led the FBS with 17 touchdowns, the most since DeVonta Smith’s 23 in 2020.
Unlike Smith, Thomas doesn’t get much praise for his route running. Back in April on NFL Radio on SiriusXM, 2023 LSU OC Mike Denbrock said Thomas can do more than people think and he wasn’t asked to run certain routes with Nabers on the squad. His route tree may be limited for now, but he has all the tools to develop into a WR1 in fantasy over time.
Out goes Calvin Ridley and in comes Thomas, and another weapon for Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars added Gabe Davis in the offseason, and they have Christian Kirk along with Evan Engram, so there’s a lot going on in Jacksonville. However, Ridley was able to put up WR2 numbers last season. Thomas may not hit WR2 status in year one, but he has that ceiling.
Kelley: Christian Kirk
When Christian Kirk first joined the Cardinals, he profiled as a slot receiver, but because the team had Larry Fitzgerald pretty firmly entrenched, he had to play out wide, and his career started a bit slow as a result. Fitzgerald retired in 2020, and in 2021, Kirk played the most slot snaps of his career, putting up the most receptions (77) and yards (984) and the best yards per route run (1.81) of his career to that point, parlaying it into an at-the-time astonishing contract with the Jaguars. In his first two years in Jacksonville, Kirk was more of a slot than he was during his early Cardinals tenure, but less than he was at his peak. Now, the Jaguars have Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis in place to line up out wide (neither has had more than a smattering of slot snaps on his resume), so Kirk should get back to the slot, where he’s at his best.
And even with that, Kirk is a better receiver now than he was early in his career. He’s 27 now (prime age), with his best overall PFF grade (74.2, 2022) and yards per route run (2.1, 2023) coming since becoming a Jaguar. So he’s better than he’s ever been and can now spend his time where he does his best work. Even WR27 (his current ADP) is too cheap.
Busts
Meaney: Gabe Davis
Thomas’ draft selection hurts Davis’ outlook. Davis falls back to being a boom-or-bust wideout (WR3/4) just like he was last season, with a better QB in Josh Allen. Davis had fewer catches, targets and yards last season compared to 2022, despite playing in more games in 2023. Davis finished as WR38, but it felt a lot worse if you rostered him. He had eight games with at least nine fantasy points and had nine games with five or fewer. In fact, he gave managers a zero five times last season. I liked the signing when it happened, and he’s a great get for Trevor Lawrence, but Thomas can do what Davis can, and he can do it better.
Kelley: Travis Etienne
Travis Etienne’s success last year (RB3!) was built largely on getting the ball a whole, whole bunch — only Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Rachaad White had more carries than Etienne’s 267. Among the top 10 in carries, only White (3.64) had a lower yards per carry than Etienne’s 3.78. There are two reactions to that. The first is that the offensive line did Etienne no favors (his yards before contact per attempts fell from 3.4 in 2022 to 2.1 last year). Well, the Jags’ O-line for 2024 came in 31st in our offensive line rankings, so that problem very easily could persist. The second is that Etienne got so much work because there was no one trustworthy behind him. That one is still true! The Jaguars made no significant additions to the backfield this offseason (unless you’re a big believer in fifth-rounder Keilan Robinson). On the other hand, D’Ernest Johnson averaged 1.1 carries and 3.6 snaps per game through Week 9 last year (his first in Jacksonville), then 3.6 and 18.4 after that. Tank Bigsby was an unmitigated disaster as a rookie, but he still carries third-round pedigree and could be a post-hype sleeper in 2024. And of course, a bad offensive line increases the chances of injury for a back. There are so many ways for Etienne to disappoint in 2024 and a lot fewer for him to repeat his success.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Trevor Lawrence Throws 35 Touchdowns
Even though I’m down on Davis from a fantasy football perspective, he has at least seven touchdowns in three of his four years in the NFL. He can help Lawrence reach his maximum potential. Davis, Thomas, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne are a good group of pass catchers for Lawrence. We saw a jump from 12 touchdowns to 25 in his sophomore season, but Lawrence took a step back last season as he only threw for 21 touchdowns. For the first time in his career, Lawrence played through injuries, and it showed down the stretch. Seven of his 14 interceptions came in the final four games of the season. I still believe in the talent and in Doug Pederson’s playcalling. Ultimately, the draft selection of Thomas will be a major difference maker for Lawrence and the offense.
Kelley: Trevor Lawrence Sets a Career-High in Pass Attempts
As mentioned above, the Jaguars have a rough offensive line and not much depth in the backfield. Trevor Lawrence isn’t going to have a choice but to throw the ball. And with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. added to Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, they have the weaponry to catch the passes. Lawrence has finished top eight in pass attempts each of his three years but never better than seventh. He’s averaged exactly 35.0 attempts per game for his career. That number will get more toward 40.0 in 2024, both in an effort for more explosive plays and to limit Etienne’s hits.
The good news from that is more pass attempts should turn into more yards and touchdowns for Lawrence. But that depends on how Thomas acquits himself to the NFL, how Davis adapts to a new team. I’m not committing to better overall production. But he’ll set a career high in pass attempts, and if the offense overall can keep up, you can commit to that production.
