Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Atlanta Falcons.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Atlanta Falcons
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Darnell Mooney
Kelley: Drake London
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Drake London
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Kyle Pitts Is the Overall TE1
Kelley: Bijan Robinson Finishes as the Overall Top Scorer
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Darnell Mooney
I’ve never really been interested in Mooney, but there are reasons to be optimistic about him from a fantasy perspective this season with the move to Atlanta. Mooney only has 71 catches and just over 900 yards in his last two seasons, but he’s three years removed from a 1,055-yard season where he totaled 81 catches (61 in his rookie season). Mooney will play the deep role in this Falcons’ offense, with most of the attention on Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson out of the backfield. Mooney has a healthy 11.22-yard aDOT over the last two seasons according to our air yards tool, and while that number has led to some inconsistency in the fantasy game, Cousins will be the best QB he’s ever played with. I don’t expect him to flirt with 81 grabs or 1,000 yards, but he’s appealing in deeper leagues and in best ball formats. Mooney has given us more bust games than boom, but there’s potential for more boom in Atlanta. I can say with confidence he’ll top the three touchdowns he has over the past two seasons.
Kelley: Drake London
Separating a receiver’s production from what his quarterback and offense do for him is difficult, but everything we can do in that regard makes Drake London look very strong. His overall PFF grades have been 83.2 (12th among qualified WRs in 2022) and 78.9 (23rd in 2023). His yards per route run have been 2.1 (13th among qualified WRs in 2022) and 1.9 (30th in 2023). Sure, he doesn’t have a 1,000-yard season yet and only has 6 combined touchdowns in two years, but working in an Arthur Smith with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke as your quarterback can have some bad impacts on a guy. The arrivals of head coach Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson and QBs Kirk Cousins (if healthy) and Michael Penix Jr. (if Cousins isn’t) more or less have to help that.
The downside to this pick is that, in order to be a “sleeper,” London would need to finish as something like a top-six receiver, given his early ADP has him WR10. So there’s not a huge window for this to come through, but it’s on the table for the incredibly talented third-year receiver.
Busts
Meaney: Drake London
My guy Daniel Kelley makes a lot of good points when it comes to London. I’m excited for him to finally play with a good quarterback and there’s not much competition for targets. I think he could certainly knock on the WR1 door, but I’m hesitant to draft him where he’s going. As WR10 off the board, he’s going ahead of proven wideouts like Brandon Aiyuk, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans and Chris Olave (the clear No. 1 target in New Orleans). Evans had 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns last season en route to a WR5 finish. He averaged 14.3 points per game, which was good enough for WR8. Even if Evans takes a bit of a step back, why are we drafting London over him? As much as I like Cousins in Atlanta for all of the weapons they have, let’s not forget the soon-to-be 36-year-old is recovering from a ruptured Achilles. London feels more like a WR2 than a WR1. If you want to start WR/WR, by all means, but starting RB/London doesn’t feel right.
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
Big flashing I AM NOT A DOCTOR sign here, but… We’ve been talking about the Achilles recoveries for Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers all offseason like they’re more or less the same thing, but the differences are, to me, stark. First, Rodgers’ injury came two months earlier. Second, Rodgers is coming back to a team he had at least some familiarity with, while Cousins is starting over. And the biggest one for me (admittedly also the inspiration for the I AM NOT A DOCTOR intro) … Rodgers’ torn Achilles was in his left heel, while Cousins’ was in his right (plant) foot. I cannot imagine recovery from that is much harder than recovering from a left foot tear. In shorter time. In a new environment.
(Lest you think this directly counters my “Sleeper: Drake London” entry above: If you are a hobbled veteran quarterback or a starting-by-surprise rookie throwing the ball, who are you throwing it to? Maybe your young, top-10-draft-pick receiver. I still think it works.)
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Kyle Pitts Is the Overall TE1
Pitts has done nothing but let fantasy managers down over the past two seasons, but I don’t think that’s on him. Let’s not forget Pitts racked up 1,026 yards on 68 catches and 110 targets in his rookie season. He doesn’t even have 1,000 yards over his last two seasons combined. Again, not on him when you consider the Falcons only had 17 passing touchdowns last season. Cousins is a massive upgrade at the QB position when you consider he tossed 18 touchdowns in eight games last season. With Arthur Smith out of the picture (along with Jonnu Smith, who had three fewer catches than Pitts last season), we can feel much better about Pitts’ outlook in this offense. Think about T.J. Hockenson’s production with Cousins last season, and Atlanta will run a very similar offense to what Minnesota ran last season. Head coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson both come from Sean McVay’s offense last season, as did current Vikings’ HC Kevin O’Connell. Pitts only has six touchdowns in 44 games, and I’m willing to bet he surpasses that total in year four, so take the over on 4.5 touchdowns on the season and have shares of this 6-foot-6, 246-pound freak who can line up all over the field.
Kelley: Bijan Robinson Finishes as the Overall Top Scorer
Zac Robinson is the Falcons’ new offensive coordinator, coming over from the Sean McVay system, where Kyren Williams — a tested-poorly, second-year fifth-rounder — just finished as the PPR RB7 (RB2 per-game) on the back of a heavy workload in a good offense. We don’t know if Zac Robinson will echo his former head coach’s philosophy, but if he comes even close to that, Bijan Robinson, whose only similarity to Williams is that he’s entering his second season — he was taken eighth overall and was one of the most exciting prospects in memory — should absolutely feast. If I’m even a little bit right about Kirk Cousins coming back slowly from his Achilles tear, then handing the ball off (or dumping it off) to an elite running back behind a good offensive line is the best approach. Everything lines up for Bijan to break out after a disappointing rookie year in a major way. Christian McCaffrey certainly still makes sense as the 1.01 in drafts this year, but my personal rankings would have Robinson at 1.02.
