Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our final edition of the Fantasy Crossroads series for 2024 highlights two of the best wide receivers on the planet. Tyreek Hill has been nothing short of fantastic since joining the Miami Dolphins, while CeeDee Lamb is coming off an historic season in Dallas. But currently, one of these wideouts is actually with his teams as the season approaches. Will that be the deciding factor?
Let’s find out.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The Case for Hill
In two seasons with the Dolphins, Hill has been unbelievable. He has averaged 170.5 targets, 119 receptions, 1,754 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Hill has finished as the WR2 and WR3 in fantasy points per game, as he remains the focal point of Miami’s movement-based passing attack. He has 170 targets in each of the past two seasons, while ranking third and second in first-read targets during that span. Last season, his 7.6 first-read targets per game trailed, coincidentally, only CeeDee Lamb, according to the FTN Fantasy StatsHub. He also accounted for 39% of Miami’s first-read targets (seventh), while his 30% target per route run rate was also toward the top of the league. It is already difficult enough for opposing defenses to guard Hill, but Mike McDaniel’s motion-heavy scheme virtually makes it impossible. Hill led the NFL with 36 targets out of pre-snap motion, while also leading the league in receptions (27), receiving yards (394) and targets per game (2.3) off the play type. As a team, the Dolphins utilized pre-snap motion 78% of the time, the highest rate in football. Between Hill’s speed and the scheme that helped him face so little press coverage, 350 of his receiving yards from last year came with five-plus yards of separation, the most in the league. Despite playing alongside a talented wideout like Jaylen Waddle, Hill still gets most of the designed looks in this passing attack. His 36 targets in pre-snap motion crushed Waddle’s six.
Hill recorded either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in an impressive 11 games this past season, posting nine top-five finishes at the wide receiver position. He is arguably the most unstoppable wide receiver in the league, playing in a borderline unstoppable offensive scheme.
The Case Against Hill
He’s now 30 years old.
That’s it. We had questions regarding how he would perform after leaving Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City and he answered those concerns by continuing to post top-three wide receiver production. Perhaps you are worried about the age, especially when comparing him to the top fantasy wideouts. But he’s hardly missed time due to injury and hasn’t lost any of his speed.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The Case for Lamb
Fantasy’s top-scoring wide receiver in 2023, Lamb is once again in line for massive volume. You know, as long as he gets on the field. But more on that later. Last season, Lamb led the NFL in targets (181), receptions (135) and fantasy points per game (23.7). His 136 first-read targets comfortably led the league, averaging a league-high 8.0 first-read targets per game, just ahead of Hill. Lamb accounted for roughly 40% of Dallas’ first-read targets last season, while posting an overall target share of 30%. We really saw Lamb turn it up a notch starting in Week 6. From that point on, he was otherworldly, posting a 33% target share and 31% target per route run rate during that stretch, while posting 10 top-10 finishes. Dallas was one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, sporting an early-down pass rate of 59.3%, fourth highest in football. I fully expect the Cowboys to once again be among the league leaders in passing volume this year, especially with the questions surrounding their rushing attack. Dak Prescott also led all quarterbacks in end zone passes last year with 67, which should continue to give Lamb, who tied for the league lead in end zone targets (24), ample touchdown opportunities.
The Case Against Lamb
Well, he’s still not with the team. [Update: He is now, agreeing to a four-year extension with the team after this was originally published Monday.]
Lamb’s holdout has been one of the talking points of the NFL offseason and while it still feels inevitable that he and the Cowboys agree to a deal, it is a bit concerning that he’s been away from the team for so long. There have been instances where players get off to rather slow starts after holding out for so long. But other than the current contract situation, there are quite literally zero reasons to fade Lamb in fantasy football.
The Verdict: Tyreek Hill Cee Dee Lamb
When you are deciding between two players who are so elite and so close, you really have to find something that you can use as a potential tiebreaker. And for me, the fact that Lamb is still holding out has actually led to me moving Hill ahead of him in my rankings. Especially because the two All-Pro wideouts were only separated by 0.2 fantasy points per game anyway. Still, don’t let Lamb fall too far in your fantasy drafts, if he does at all.
Update: Lamb and the Cowboys have just agreed to a four-year, $136 million deal. As reactionary as it may seem, this moves Lamb back ahead of Hill for me in my fantasy football rankings.
