Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a matchup between two of the most talented running backs in fantasy football. Jonathan Taylor dominated when healthy last year and will have the Colts backfield all to himself in 2024. Saquon Barkley, meanwhile, is set to potentially unlock even more upside after an interdivisional move to Philadelphia.
Let’s take a look and see who we should prefer in fantasy in 2024.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Case for Barkley
He’s one of the best running backs in the league and is trading his Giants blue for Eagles Kelly green? I don’t know. You do the math.
Barkley signed a huge deal with the Eagles this offseason, exciting a lot fantasy managers and simultaneously frustrating Giants fans. This is a massive upgrade for Barkley in so many ways. Let’s start with the obvious — the offense. During Barkley’s tenure in New York, the Giants have ranked 16th, 18th, 31st, 31st, 18th and 30th in points per game. Things were especially bad this past season when the Giants averaged the fourth-fewest points (1.22), third-fewest yards (24.2) and third-fewest plays (5.5) per drive in the league. Now he joins an elite Philadelphia offense that ranked second in plays (6.57) and seventh in points (2.37) per drive last year. With the Giants also leading the NFL in three-and-outs per drive, it is no secret that they also averaged just 2.5 red zone trips per game, the fourth fewest in football. Wheels up for Barkley.
Now let’s talk about efficiency. When healthy, Barkley has still been one of the top fantasy running backs in the league, despite playing in a bad offense. But the volume has played a role. Over the last two seasons, Barkley has ranked third and second in the league in opportunity share at 80.1% and 83.9%. It’s a good thing, too, as the efficiency hasn’t quite been there. This past season, for instance, he averaged just 0.31 fantasy points per snap, which ranked 34th among running backs. He also ranked outside the top-40 running backs in yards per touch (4.3).
But the Giants offensive line (or lack thereof) had a lot to do with it.
For most of Barkley’s time in New York, the Giants have had arguably the league’s worst run-blocking unit. Per FTN Data, Barkley was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46.6% of his carries last year, one of the highest rates among qualified running backs. He averaged just 1.34 yards before contact per attempt, while 23% of the Giants’ rush attempts were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate. Running behind the Giants’ offensive line is like driving a car in hectic rush hour traffic. There’s just nowhere to go. Playing behind the Eagles’, however, is like an open road of fantasy points and efficiency. Just ask D’Andre Swift. Last season, Swift averaged a whopping 2.49 yards before contact per rush, while being contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 17.1% of his carries, a top-10 rate. And back in 2022, Miles Sanders averaged 3.2 yards before first contact per attempt, the fourth-highest rate among qualified running backs. His 488 yards before contact were the third-most in the league, while Sanders also saw 30 carries where he wasn’t even contacted by a defender. And while Sanders and Swift are both solid players, Barkley is on a different level.
The Case Against Barkley
Two words: Tush push.
The touchdown upside is what many question given the presence of Philadelphia’s patented play. Maybe the play isn’t as prevalent without Jason Kelce, though I’d guarantee it is still part of their offense. We just saw Jalen Hurts finish sixth in football in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line with 16, though Swift being tackled at the 1-yard line six times certainly helped. Hurts handled 53.3% of Philadelphia’s rush attempts from inside the five-yard line, which wasn’t just the highest rate among quarterbacks, but also the 16th-highest rate in all of football. Entering 2024, I do think Barkley gets more goal line carries than Swift did, but the tush push will remain a key part of this offense in short-yardage situations.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Case for Taylor
Taylor’s 2023 season didn’t start until Week 5. He opened the year on the PUP list recovering from an ankle injury. After being limited his first few weeks back, Taylor took over the Colts backfield in Week 8. And from then until Week 12, Taylor logged 71% of the snaps and handled 66% of the team’s rush attempts, averaging nearly 20 touches and just over 16 PPR points per game during that span. He then suffered a thumb injury that caused him to miss a few weeks but even with Zack Moss playing well, Taylor dominated this backfield in the most important game of the year in Week 18. During that game, Taylor played 76% of the snaps and handled a season-high 83% of the rush attempts. Fast forward to 2024, Moss is in Cincinnati and the Colts have absolutely no one to even remotely close to taking work away from Taylor.
The Indianapolis offense is also one of the most fantasy friendly in all of football. In Shane Steichen’s first season with the team, the Colts played incredibly uptempo, leading the NFL in both average seconds per snap (24.0) and no-huddle rate (16.6%). They also ranked ninth in the league in neutral script rush rate (45.2%). This offense is going to be towards the top of the league in plays, while completely running through Taylor.
The Case Against Taylor
The argument against Taylor is very similar to the one against Barkley. Both players have quarterbacks who will take some touchdowns away. While it was a small sample size last year, we did see Anthony Richardson handle a lot of the rushing production. In four games last year, Richardson accounted for 18% of the team’s rush attempts, while averaging 6.3 rush attempts per game. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line in Weeks 1-5, handling 18% of Indianapolis’ designed rush attempts during that span. We’ll see how much of a short-yardage role Richardson has in his first full season in 2024.
The Verdict: Jonathan Taylor
This is really, really close, and I’d be thrilled if either player was my RB1 for the season. But if both were on the clock, I would slightly lean toward Taylor, mainly because I actually feel a little better about his usage. Barkley should still dominate the carries in Philadelphia, but with Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley there, I’m not sure he plays a massive amount of third downs. In Indianapolis, however, I think Taylor could lead the NFL in both snap share and opportunity share. Behind him on the depth chart is Evan Hull, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson.
