Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The quarterback position just gets deeper and deeper in fantasy football.
Jordan Love’s breakout 2023 campaign played a huge role in that. He was one of the hottest players in football during the second half of the season and is very much on the radar as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Joe Burrow, meanwhile, once again struggled with injuries. But when he was fully healthy, he was, as usual, really good.
Which quarterback should lead your fantasy rosters in 2024? Let’s check it out in Fantasy Crossroads.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The Case for Burrow
2023 was a roller coaster year for Joe Burrow. His season began with injury, as Burrow suffered a preseason calf injury that didn’t sideline him for any team but did impact his play. Through Week 4, Burrow (and the Bengals offense) had to adjust to his calf issue. During that span, because Burrow’s mobility wasn’t as sharp, the Bengals implemented way more quick game in their passing attack, while also drastically cutting their use of play-action. In their first four games, Burrow’s average time to throw of 2.26 seconds was the second-fastest among all quarterbacks, while his 17.9% play-action dropback rate was the ninth lowest in the league. Burrow struggled in that stretch, averaging just 182 passing yards, 0.5 passing touchdowns and just over eight fantasy points per game. It was an awful, uncharacteristic start from Burrow.
And then he got healthy.
Burrow’s calf issue finally improved ahead of a Week 5 date with the Arizona Cardinals. And he wasted no time getting back on track. Burrow destroyed the Cardinals to the tune of 317 yards and three touchdowns. The calf injury was a thing of the past and Burrow returned to being a great real life and fantasy football signal caller. In Weeks 5-10, Burrow ranked fourth in passing yards (1,480), third in touchdown passes (13) and sixth in fantasy points. He posted four top-eight fantasy weeks during that span, while averaging 296 passing yards, 2.4 passing touchdowns and 21.4 fantasy points per contest. The mobility was much improved, too, as Burrow rushed for at least 20 yards twice, while the Bengals’ scheme changed on offense. Burrow’s play-action dropback rate jumped up to nearly 23%, while he was also able to hold onto the football longer and extend plays. Who knows how Burrow would have finished if he didn’t see his season end in Week 11 with a wrist injury.
Entering the 2024 campaign, the Bengals no longer have Brian Callahan as the offensive coordinator. But head coach Zac Taylor has been doing most of the playcalling anyway. That means Cincinnati should remain one of the most pass-happy teams in all of football. Since Taylor joined Cincinnati in 2019, the Bengals have ranked third in the NFL in early-down pass rate (58.6%). And during that same span, the Bengals have called pass 61.7% of the time in neutral game scripts, also the third-highest rate in football. We also saw plenty of RPO usage from the Bengals last year, using the play type 11.3% of the time, the second-highest rate in football.
The Case Against Burrow
It’s pretty simple. Burrow just has to stay healthy. Since entering the NFL, Burrow has dealt with multiple injuries, including an ACL tear, dislocated finger, MCL sprain, calf strain and ligament tear in his wrist. The Bengals also haven’t had close to an elite offensive line in the Burrow era, which probably hasn’t helped, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll easily finish as a top-eight fantasy signal caller.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
The Case for Love
In his first year as the face of the Green Bay franchise, we weren’t exactly sure what to expect from Jordan Love. A talented but unproven player, Love obviously had massive shoes to fill but he not only lived up to any expectations, but he exceeded them. Love led the Packers to the second round of the playoffs and from a fantasy perspective, emerged as a top-10 quarterback. Love finished seventh in fantasy points per game (18.9), finishing as the overall QB5. His season didn’t get off to a terrific start, as Love posted the third-worst completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks in Weeks 1-9 (59.6%). But as the season went on, Love got more comfortable. From Week 10 on, Love climbed to eighth in completion percentage (68%), while ranking second in passing yards (2,438), second in passing touchdowns (20), second in big time throw rate (7.6%) and second in fantasy points. He finished as a QB1 in seven of nine games during that span.
The Packers don’t have a top-20 wide receiver on their roster, but they are as deep as any team in football in that department. We also saw a change in scheme in Green Bay’s first season without Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Head coach and playcaller Matt LaFleur has always been a proponent of heavy pre-snap motion but since Rodgers wasn’t a huge fan of the idea, it hardly materialized during their time together. However, with Rodgers no longer in town, the Packers bumped their usage of motion. In 2022, Rodgers’ final season, Green Bay utilized pre-snap motion 37.9% of the time. However, this past season, that rate jumped up to 54.3%, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. I think that only helps Love going forward.
The Case Against Love
Since I am fully buying what Love did last season, there really aren’t many arguments against him as a fringe top-12 fantasy quarterback. Maybe you want to see him do it again for a full season, especially when you are comparing him to established fantasy stars at the position. And what also doesn’t help Love, or any quarterback outside of the top five, is simply that the position is so unbelievably deep in fantasy.
The Verdict: Joe Burrow
It may be risky, but I am banking on Burrow staying healthy and having a monster season with monster volume. While I do love Green Bay’s depth at wide receiver, they also simply don’t have anyone who comes close to the talent of Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. It also wouldn’t shock me if Burrow attempted up to 50 more passes than Love this season. I expect Love to continue to shine, but if Burrow can stay healthy, I do believe he’ll have better production at the end of the year.
