Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Christian McCaffrey is the consensus RB1 in fantasy drafts. He’s been the most dominant fantasy running back for years now, especially since moving to San Francisco.
But two players can legitimately challenge him in 2024.
Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are two of the top young running backs in the league. And as they enter the 2024 campaign, the arrow is pointing up for both players. So who is the better selection in fantasy drafts this season? Let’s check it out in Fantasy Crossroads.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The Case for Hall
After finishing the 2023 season as the RB2 in PPR formats in an awful Jets offense, it is pretty easy to make a case for Breece Hall entering the 2024 campaign. Coming off the ACL tear last season, Hall got off to a slow start. He finally began to fully take over the Jets backfield in Week 5. From that point on, Hall logged 65% of the snaps, handled 67% of the team rush attempts and posted an absurd 19.5% target share, easily the highest rate among running backs during that span. The pass game usage was huge, as Hall was targeted on 27% of his routes last year. The Jets quarterbacks were not willing (or able) to take shots down the field, while the pass-catchers after Garrett Wilson were non-existent. And from Week 5 on, no running back in the league posted a higher target share than Hall (19.5%), while his 85 total targets during that span were 12 more than the next closest player. Hall averaged just over 20 touches per game during that stretch, including an insane 37-carry contest in Week 18.
The volume should once again be there for Hall this season, while the efficiency could climb. Last year, he still showcased his upside on a per-carry basis. 40.5% of Hall’s rushing yards came off breakaway runs (15-plus yards) last year, the second-highest rate in football. He also evaded 4.5 tackles per game, giving him a season-long total of 77, which led the league. But the scoring opportunities is what really could lead to Hall contending with Christian McCaffrey for the title of overall RB1 in fantasy. Over the past two seasons, the Jets have ranked 30th and 26th in red zone scoring attempts per game, averaging just 2.4 per game during that span. And last year, the Jets averaged just 3.9 points per red zone trip, the fewest in all of football. This past season, Hall had just one goal line carry. That’s it. With Aaron Rodgers (hopefully) healthy for the entire season, the scoring chances for the Jets are going to skyrocket.
The Case Against Hall
The only real argument I can truly make against Hall is the fact that his passing game work is going to come down. He’s a very skilled receiver, but a ton of his pass game usage from last year was the result of the Jets quarterbacks not being able to attack vertically, as well as the lack of depth behind Hall and Wilson on offense. But if the rushing touchdowns come up in exchange for a small dip in receptions, I don’t think anyone will be complaining.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The Case for Robinson
Arthur Smith is gone. Do you need me to elaborate? OK. After selecting Robinson with the eighth overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, Smith and the Falcons inexplicably gave their best player just 12.6 carries per game. His short-yardage usage was awful, seeing two total goal line carries and just 18.2% of Atlanta’s carries inside the 5-yard line. Robinson accounted for just 41% of Atlanta’s total rush attempts, which ranked 26th among all running backs. He did make up for it with great receiving usage, ranking third among running backs in targets (86), averaging 5.1 per game.
Entering the 2024 season, Robinson’s usage should be much more consistent. Last year, he was often taken off the field for Tyler Allgeier and sometimes even Cordarrelle Patterson. Zac Robinson comes over from Los Angeles and has already discussed how the Falcons plan on using Robinson this season. And head coach Raheem Morris stated that the plan is to get the ball to Robinson as much as you can, while Robinson himself has even compared his expected usage to that of Christian McCaffrey’s. But what if it resembles the usage of Kyren Williams, who was with Robinson in Los Angeles this past season. That would be ideal, too. Williams averaged close to 22 touches per game in his 12 healthy contests last season, while dominating the goal line work. Robinson is also likely to implement a spread offense, utilizing way more three-wide sets than Smith did. Last season, Atlanta operated out of 11 personnel just 20.9% of the time, the second-lowest rate in football. The Rams, meanwhile, almost exclusively ran 11 personnel. As a result, Williams saw stacked boxes on just 4.8% of his carries, easily the lowest rate in football. Robinson, for reference, was around 20%. This new scheme could create more running lanes for Robinson, on top of the added usage.
The Case Against Robinson
When breaking down two players who will be selected in the first round of fantasy drafts, it is difficult to find many arguments against them. While I do believe Robinson will still be plenty involved in the pass game, I do think the Falcons as a whole target the running back position less this season. Last year, Atlanta targeted the position about 24% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league. With a new offense and new quarterback in town, I expect more consistent usage for the wide receivers.
The Verdict: Bijan Robinson
You cannot go wrong with Robinson or Hall as your first selection at Pick 2, and you could even justify it at 1.01 — both players can legitimately challenge McCaffrey for the overall RB1 spot this season. But I’m giving the edge to Robinson because I actually like the system he is in a bit more than Hall, while the Falcons offensive line is still one of the best run-blocking units in all of football. Last year, Hall was contacted in the backfield on 28.3% of his carries, one of the highest rates among qualified running backs. The Jets made improvements to the offensive line this offseason, but Atlanta’s is still among the best in the league.
