Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Fantasy Crossroads series rolls on with a look at two very different running backs.
Derrick Henry has been doing it for years, while Kyren Williams was fantasy football’s breakout star in 2023. Henry joins a brand-new team for the first time in his Hall of Fame career but will his role remain the same? And is Blake Corum a candidate to take meaningful work away from Williams?
Let’s break it all down.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Case for Henry
Hand, meet glove.
This is a perfect (and, for opposing defenses, terrifying) fit. Henry is at his best going off tackle and downhill, which is exactly what this Baltimore run scheme wants to emulate. Tennessee’s poor run-blocking unit has played a role in Henry’s drop in efficiency as of late, especially last year when Henry averaged just 1.62 yards before contact per rush last tear, while 454 of his 1,167 rushing yards came before contact (38.9%). And according to FTN Data, Henry was contacted in the backfield on 27.1% of his carries.
Things should look much better in Baltimore.
For starters, the zone-read, power run game with Henry and Lamar Jackson could be unstoppable. And given the gravity that Jackson has on opposing defenses, Henry would see a lot more open lanes to run the football. Since 2000, Baltimore running backs have accounted for three of the top-30 yards before contact per attempt seasons (among players with at least 70 attempts). Secondly, the touchdown upside really excites me. We just watched Gus Edwards, in this same Baltimore offense, lead the league in carries from inside the five-yard line (19), converting them into 12 touchdowns. And keep in mind that the Ravens don’t call designed runs for Lamar Jackson from in close all that much, as he’s seen a total of nine carries inside the 5-yard line over the last two seasons. Between his skill set and fits in this offense, 15-plus touchdowns is absolutely in play for Henry this season.
In the past, Henry has often been someone who tends to have his best games when the Titans were playing with a lead. But because he hasn’t been a huge pass-catching presence, Henry would come off the field when the Titans were chasing points in the two-minute drill. And with Tennessee going from an AFC contender to a below average team as of late, Henry’s snaps have actually suffered a bit. This past season, Henry logged just 53% of the snaps, his lowest rate since 2018. He played just seven percent of the snaps in the two-minute drill, while the Titans trailed by eight-plus points for 154 plays last season. Baltimore, meanwhile, trailed by eight or more points on just 47 plays in 2023, easily the fewest in all of football. The next closest was San Francisco at 113 plays. Entering the 2024 season, the Ravens once again project to be one of the best teams in the league, which means we should see an uptick in snaps and positive game scripts for Henry in Baltimore.
The Case Against Henry
I guess that depends on how much you worry about Henry’s massive workload.
After once again leading the league with 272 carries last year, Henry has now led the NFL in that department in four of the last five seasons. And since 2019, Henry has averaged a whopping 304.2 carries per season, including an eight-game 2021 campaign where he averaged over 25 carries per game. Henry is now 30 years old and should be in line for plenty of volume once again. But will this finally be the year we see a fall off?
Meanwhile, we know Henry’s ceiling for receptions in a season is what? 30? He is unlikely to play long down and distance snaps over Justice Hill, who played 78% of the two-minute snaps and 63% on long down and distances last year. And I also wouldn’t be surprised if Keaton Mitchell worked into that role once he’s fully healthy in the second half of the season.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The Case for Williams
You can make the argument that no player in all of fantasy football was more valuable than Kyren Williams last year. And if you consider the fact that he wasn’t even drafted in a ton of fantasy leagues?
Forget about it.
After splitting work with Cam Akers in Week 1, Williams ultimately took over the backfield in Week 2 and didn’t look back. From Week 2 on, Williams logged 83% of the snaps and handled 77% of the team rush attempts, while averaging 19.4 carries, 4.2 targets, 2.9 receptions and 21.8 PPR points per game. Williams missed a few games towards the middle of the year but still posted eight top-12 finishes from Week 2 on. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more fantasy points per game than Williams over the course of the season. But Williams didn’t get there off just volume. He was efficient, leading all qualified running backs in yards before contact per attempt (3.0), which is sometimes an offensive line stat, but sometimes a player stat. Watching Williams play, this stat reflects his tremendous vision.
You also have to love this Rams offense. With Sean McVay at the helm. We know the Rams are going to be good on that side of the ball. But I don’t think people realize just how good this unit was when at full strength last season. During the games Matthew Stafford, Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were active last year, the Rams posted a 24.2% offensive DVOA, which would have ranked second in the league over the course of the season. During those games, the Rams also averaged 28.5 points per game, scoring 30-plus points in half of those contests.
The Case Against Williams
The Rams selected Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum is a good player who, in many ways, is really similar to Williams. It remains to be seen whether Corum is going to actually cut into Williams’ workload or if he’s strictly there as a backup to occasionally give him a rest. In the past, we have seen Sean McVay rely on one running back, whether it was Todd Gurley, Akers, Darrell Henderson, etc. However, Williams is still undersized and has played just 21 regular season games over the past two seasons. We have seen him pick up multiple injuries, including this offseason (foot).
The Verdict: It Depends!
In full PPR leagues, it is tough to rank Henry ahead of Williams. Not that Williams is going to catch 50-plus passes, but he’ll at least be on the field in way more passing situations than Henry. In 2023, Williams played 76% of the snaps in the two-minute drill. But in half and even standard formats, the case for Henry becomes much stronger. Both players are in top-10 offenses, while both players should also dominate the goal-line role for said offenses. Although I do expect a huge touchdown season from Henry, it is still a risky game to project touchdowns, and Williams likely has a higher floor without touchdowns, despite potentially more competition for carries.
