Can Anyone Beat Scottie Scheffler at the 2025 Memorial? Outrights and Best PGA Bets

After a trip to Texas, the PGA Tour heads to Ohio for this week’s Memorial Tournament at Jack’s place, Muirfield Village.

It’s always exciting to see the best players in the world tee it up together, but with so many signature events on the calendar, they can start to blend together. This week brings another one featuring a limited field of just 72 golfers. I believe it would benefit the Tour to trim the amount of signature events each year so they have more meaning.

Unlike some of the other signature stops, though, this one comes with a twist: there’s a 36-hole cut. The top 50 and ties, along with anyone within 10 shots of the lead, will advance to the weekend.

Let’s dig in to digest the course and how it will play. 

Course Fit

Muirfield Village Golf Club is the host this week, and it fits the Jack Nicklaus design mold to a tee that is punishing near the pin, strategic off the tee.

Nicklaus’ design philosophy is clear: Offer options from the tee box but make golfers pay for mistakes as they get closer to the hole. The driving corridors here are generous, but that doesn’t always mean driver.

In fact, longtime member Jason Day once said he underperformed at Muirfield because the course required too many 3-woods off the tee which was something he struggled with at the time. His go-to weapons were either a driving iron or a full-send driver, while the 3-wood often got him into trouble.

Distance off the tee isn’t paramount here. Finding the fairway is. Missing the short grass comes with a hefty penalty, which makes accuracy king.

Approach play is where things tighten up. There’s a high volume of water hazards, greenside bunkers, and gnarly rough surrounding the small, well-guarded greens. It’s a course where knowing where to miss matters a lot. Think Augusta National-level course management.

Around the green, Muirfield grades out very strongly in our Course Fit model. That’s no accident. Tour players all have solid short games, but the ones who excel here are the ones who manage their misses with discipline while playing to their strengths, avoiding big numbers, and choosing risk wisely.

Turf-wise, it’s classic cool-season: Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and fescue rough with bentgrass fairways and lightning-fast bentgrass greens. When I say fast, I mean Augusta-fast. These greens are among the slickest players will face all year.

Using our Splits Stats data from the last two seasons, we can zero in on courses with three key traits: high penalty for missed fairways, tough scoring environments and bentgrass greens. Compared to their counter splits (low penalty, easy scoring, Bermuda greens), here are 10 names that stand out the most:

• Andrew Novak
• Harris English
• Corey Conners
• Russell Henley
• Denny McCarthy
• Sam Stevens
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Brian Harman
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Ryan Gerard

This list screams plodding, ball-striker. The guys that can put it in the fairway and get hot with their irons or putter. 

Head over to the FTN PGA Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Scheffler remains the most consistent golfer on the planet, landing a top-five last week at Colonial despite a slow start. His outright prices remain incredibly inflated though. This is a signature event, but he’s priced as if he’s playing in the Puerto Rico Open. 

I will gladly look further down the board to highlight a trio of outright bets that catch my eye. 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 Memorial Tournament

Russell Henley to Win (45-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

Leaning in on the idea that accuracy is more important at Jack’s place, Henley pops as it’s what he does best. He keeps it in the fairways and lights it up with steady iron play. 

When you look at his five Tour wins, they’ve all come on courses where you don’t get punished for lack of power. Looking at the PGA Course Fit Model, Henley grades out top 20 in both accuracy and approach which is a lethal combination for big-finish potential. 

Corey Conners to Win (30-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

Sticking with that theme of accuracy and iron play leading to big finishes, there aren’t many who play that brand of golf better than Conners. He’s third in strokes gained accuracy and 5th on approach. 

He doesn’t have a single top 10 at Muirfield Village but tied for the third-best course monster score. This tells us he has a ton of spike potential, but he’s failed to string together the good rounds on the same week. The market tends to overvalue course history when it includes a lot of big finishes, but his hidden history leads us to finding great value this week. 

Denny McCarthy to Win (45-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

Two of his eight best PGA Tour finishes have come at Muirfield Village. This is the general region where he shines and it’s the type of course that doesn’t demand power off the tee. 

He’s gained on approach in 8 of his last 10 starts and always live to lead the field in putting. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays throughout the week from myself and Alex Blickle. I already have a fourth play that I will load in there now.