Not a Favorite, But This US Open Pick Is Worth an Outright Bet

The 2025 U.S. Open returns to Oakmont Country Club, one of the most demanding and iconic venues in major championship golf. Known for its punishing rough, lightning-fast greens, and relentless setup, Oakmont is a course where contenders are truly tested. With that in mind, here’s a look at the course before we get into my favorite bets on the board. 

Course Fit

Oakmont Country Club plays host to this year’s U.S. Open, and it’s about as classic as it gets. Built in the early 1900s, this historic Pennsylvania venue has withstood the test of time and then some. While the layout has seen adjustments over the years, the most notable change came via a Gil Hanse-led restoration, which further emphasized Oakmont’s brutal honesty.

This par-70 layout stretches to 7,372 yards, but it’s the distribution that really tells the story. Five par 4s play under 410 yards, while seven tip out over 460 offering a nice balance that leans toward long and punishing. Three of the par 3s play 200-plus yards, including a ridiculous 289-yard beast. The two par 5s? Both exceed 610 yards, so don’t expect any easy birdies.

The first defining trait here is tough scoring. Oakmont embraces its reputation as a grinder’s paradise, with 5-inch rough and lightning-fast greens doing most of the dirty work. Early-week softness might lead to modest scoring Thursday or Friday, but expect conditions to firm up quickly over the weekend.

Off the tee, it’s an open canvas. Literally. Tree removal over the years means no real sightlines and no water hazards to worry about, which gives players full freedom to shape shots. That’s why our second course-fit trait is past performance on open/exposed courses. Some golfers (see: Bubba Watson) prefer tree-lined framing, but Oakmont strips away those crutches.

Distance isn’t the main separator here, fairway finding is. Miss wide, and you’re looking at thick rough, awkward lies and potential chip-outs just to stay in play. Even the bunkers bite harder than usual.

Approach play is equally nuanced. While the greens are large in size, their effective targets are tiny thanks to punishing runoffs and extreme slopes. Miss in the wrong spot, and you’re chipping away from the hole just to stay on the green. Combine that with greens that can run over 15 on the Stimpmeter, and distance control becomes absolutely critical.

For grass talk we’re looking at a classic Northeastern blend: bent-poa fairways, poa/rye/bluegrass rough and poa annua greens. For modeling purposes, I combine bent and poa surfaces into a “bent-poa” category: any course that avoids bermuda completely qualifies here. That includes Oakmont and excludes tracks like Colonial or Summerlin.

Using our Splits Stats data from the last two seasons, we can zero in on courses with four key traits: hard scoring, exposed off the tee, big penalty for missing the fairway, and poa-bent greens. Here are 10 names that stand out the most relative to their counter-split:

• Davis Riley
• Joe Highsmith
• Harris English
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Tom Kim
• Ryan Gerard
• Rory McIlroy
• Sam Stevens
• Corey Conners
• Russell Henley

Notice what unites them: distance isn’t the common thread, but around-the-green play and putting are. Eight of the 10 are plus in short game, and nine of the 10 are positive putters in our model. 

Head over to the FTN PGA Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

McIlroy has quickly fallen out of favor with the oddsmakers due to his driver concerns since winning the grand slam at Augusta National. We shouldn’t forget that he’s still having arguably the best season of anyone this year, even Scheffler. Speaking of which, he remains as consistent as they come, and the wins have started piling up again. While I won’t argue with Scheffler’s price, it’s not one I want to bet into. There are a few names further down the betting board, though. 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 U.S. Open

Tommy Fleetwood to Win (33-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

With exposed sightlines off the tee, tough scoring and bent-poa turf, it’s all lining up for a big Fleetword finish. You can joke about his lack of US wins all you want but if he’s going to get one, then a course like Oakmont makes perfect sense for that big win to happen. 

Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+200)

If the course plays the same as it did in 2016 then distance is not a top priority around here. That would make someone like Henley very attractive as he’s one of the shortest among the top tiers of golf but does everything else really well. 

Henley has a plus-5 monster score over the last five U.S. Opens so he plays these setups just fine. He ranks 13th in three-month baseline performance so I’m happy to get him at +200 for a top 20. 

Rory McIlroy to Win (14-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

As I mentioned above, he’s still arguably having the best season of anyone on Tour. His driver troubles have made him look human in recent starts but if he gets that sorted out and regains his best-in-the-world driving skill then we would expect him to be priced up by Scheffler. 

There is a very real chance he doesn’t get the driver sorted out but at this price I’m happy to buy low and play those odds. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays throughout the week from Alex Blickle and me. I already have a fourth play that I will load in there now.