Trends to Ignore at the 2025 Masters

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Every April we get excited for the Masters at Augusta National. It’s an iconic venue, and the best players in the world join back up to compete in the season’s first major championship. It’s the only major that gets played at the same course every year, which adds to the appeal. However, it also leads a lot of analysts down a path of overanalysis and overfitting based on past trends. Let’s get to know the field by going through some popular trends the industry likes to follow and why you probably should steer clear of them in your own research.

Trend or Myth: You Must have Past Experience at Augusta National

Like clockwork, when the Masters rolls around, we start to hear Fuzzy Zoeller’s name mentioned a lot. That’s because no debutants have won at Augusta National since he accomplished the feat in 1979. Why could this be a misleading stat? 

First of all, a lot of eventual superstars get their first look at Augusta National when they are amateurs or just getting established on Tour. They aren’t in their peak form yet, but they are playing against the best in the world, so naturally it would be tough for them to come out on top. 

When you look at recent editions of the Masters you see Ludvig Aberg would have won the 2024 Masters by three shots if Scottie Scheffler didn’t exist. Then a few years before that Will Zalatoris also posted a runner-up finish in his debut (2021 Masters). An even more extreme close call was Jonas Blixt landing a runner-up finish in his 2014 Masters debut. He was slightly better than Tour average at the time but certainly no superstar or rising star. 

In short, we have to ignore this trend, because we’ve seen enough close calls to realize it’s a suggestion, not a requirement. That’s especially true in formats where you don’t need the golfer to win in order or pay off. 

Notable first timers in the 2025 Masters field: Mav McNealy, Rasmus Hojgaard, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai, Davis Thomspon, Kevin Yu, Max Greyserman, Thomas Detry, Matt McCarty, Laurie Canter

Trend or Myth: Past Performance in Majors Is Crucial to Contend at the Masters

One of the popular trends this time of year is to check out previous leaderboards at the Masters and then compare those big finishers by looking at their past performances in major championships. 

It should come as no surprise as golfers who play well in other majors also tend to have big-finish upside at the Masters. The first name that comes to mind when I see these lists is Patrick Reed. He was deemed “unbettable” at majors before his runner-up finish at the 2017 PGA Championship. Reed didn’t post a single top-10 finish in his first 17 tries at a major. Then he rattled off a win at the 2017 PGA and followed it up with a win at the 2018 Masters. He has since added five more top 10s to his major resume. 

Who does this sound kind of like currently? Joaquin Niemann of course. Niemann has played in 20 majors since turning pro and has nothing better than a T16 finish to show for it. There is more to the story though. He currently ranks sixth in the field when I look at baseline skill right now, but even with him being at his peak I have his simulated top-10 rate at just 16% this week. So if we assume that he played all 20 previous majors at his current level then we’d only expect him to land three top 10s. Niemann hasn’t been playing at this level his entire career, though, so his expected top-10 output in majors is likely closer to just two. 

With such a small sample of majors played so far in his career, having zero instead of two is well within his range of outcomes and not something we should penalize him for and certainly shouldn’t say he can’t perform on the big stage. Those narratives often flip fast after a few big finishes so if you like Niemann, or any other golfer who has underperformed in majors, don’t be afraid to go against the market consensus and be early to the party. 

Notables with at least 5 starts in a major and zero top 10s: Joaquin Niemann, Rasmus Hojgaard, Nicolai Hojgaard, J.T. Poston, Mav McNealy, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Byeong Hun An, Stephan Jaeger, Michael Kim

Trend or Myth: Fade the Defending Champ Because It’s Tough to Repeat at Augusta National

This one is pretty funny to read about because people will often put their own spin on why it’s tough to repeat at Augusta National. Some might say it’s the extra time commitment to dealing with the Champion’s Dinner hoopla or too much media attention. 

The reality is that winning a golf tournament is extremely hard and even harder when the best in the world are all in the field. Even the superstars win roughly just 10% of the time over the course of their career. Winning the same event the following year does not change that math. We should expect the best in the world to win here about 10% of the time. 

Nobody has gone back-to-back at Augusta National since Tiger Woods did it in 2002. The problem with this stat is just a small sample size. We only play Augusta National once a year, so it takes a long time for some trends to play out mathematically. Going 20-plus years or even 30 years without a successful title defense is to be expected. 

Don’t Get Too Trendy at the 2025 Masters

These were just three trends that stood out initially, but what are your favorite trends at the Masters? Have you really thought through the trend to determine if it’s just saying “target good golfers” while needlessly crossing out a few decent names due to arbitrary checkpoints, or is there more to the story? This is your reminder to stay true to your process and don’t fall victim to paralysis by analysis just because it’s a major championship. 

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