Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
It’s Open Championship week, which means golf in Scotland. When playing in the home of golf, you have to at least mention the weather. Why is that?
This area is known for windy conditions, but then you compound that with the tee-time structure of The Open. Unlike full fields on the PGA Tour, this event has every player tee off on the first hole, which creates a large gap between the early and late tee times.
Many superstars consider this the toughest major to win because you have to bring your A game but also get fortunate with the weather draw. What do we see right now for the weather at Royal Troon? You can check the Met Office for a look at the forecast.
Putting it briefly, we see chance of rain all day Thursday with winds around 10 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH, with those peaking midday. Friday, we see less chance of rain but similar wind. The wind direction looks pretty consistent (South) so nothing to worry about there. On a round-by-round basis, I would try to avoid midday as much as possible but over the course of 36 holes, I don’t see an obvious advantage anywhere. We know the actual weather doesn’t always line up with the forecast though, so if you are max-entering this week, definitely throw in some stacks that feature golfers that are grouped closely together on the tee sheet.
Let’s hop right in to discuss some of my favorite DFS options.
Core Targets
Rory McIlroy
I will admit I was wrong on Rory last week, as I wanted to wait and see how he responded after the tough loss at Pinehurst. His golf game was just fine at the Scottish and his pressers were on point with him ready to move on and focus on the positive from Pinehurst and not dwell on the finish. So, with that no longer a concern for me, I can lean on the facts and those tell me that Rory has finished 6th or better in six of his last eight starts at The Open. Looking at two-year stats on similar courses, Rory laps the field in top-5 rate (53%) with the next closest being just 36%. McIlroy has proven he can play the strategic golf required at a links course but also utilize his massive distance advantage when needed.
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