MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
This week the PGA Tour takes a pause as some of the best golfers in the world travel to Japan to compete in the 2021 Summer Olympics. You will notice that not all the top-ranked golfers are here, for various reasons. Bryson DeChambeauand Jon Rahm will miss due to COVID-19, while other big-name stars decided to skip the event altogether. For the rest, they simply may not have qualified due to Olympic rules of only taking two golfers from a single country; except if one country has four golfers ranked inside the top-10 in the world (United States this year).
The course the field will be playing is Kasumigaseki Country Club (East). I have not seen an official scorecard, but what I have found states it will be played at either par 72 (I assume 71) and it is roughly 7,500 yards. That is about the end of the information, to be blunt. The course has been used for a few amateur events in the past, which includes a victory from at-the-time amateur, Hideki Matsuyama. While it is quite long on paper, it appears when looking at the scorecard that half the course has above average length holes, while the other half of the holes play short. I am very curious to see how this all plays out over four days; and all golfers will get a crack at four days because there is no cut, which should benefit the more talented golfers.
Unfortunately, there is not a ton of value in the gold medal market right now, but I have two picks to add onto the futures that were posted in discord a couple weeks ago (Sungjae Im 40/1 and Guido Migliozzi 60/1 on Draftkings).
Gold medal winners
Cameron Smith +2800 | DraftKings
Smith has been playing the best golf of his career in 2021, and even if he’s cooled off some since his hot start, his iron play and short game has continued to be positive. He’s lacking off the tee, and although some of this course will play quite long, a large portion of it should suit him well and I’m not entirely convinced the rest of the field is that great with the driver to take advantage. I hope the fit is fine, but even if it’s not, in my raw ratings he still shows value for simply being that much better than the majority of this field. You will probably read/see/hear a lot of people saying this is similar to a WGC – I can assure you it is not. This field dies off very quickly, and it’s one of the reasons there are only small edges on a couple of golfers. Worst case scenario, I still make this a bad number for Smith and think his overall skill and even a negative course fit should be closer to 22/1.
Jhonattan Vegas +7000 | DraftKings
If the course isn’t a fit for Smith, then it more than likely plays into the profile of Vegas. His length off the tee could be a leg up on holes 3, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14 and 18. As you can see, almost half of the course is quite long. Again, we will learn more as they play, but unfortunately, we have to do a bit of educated guessing now. On his skill alone, like Smith, I make his number +4400 which is a nice value grabbing the +7000. There are only 14 golfers I think have a better chance to win, and although it’s a bit of a stretch, it’s not unthinkable. His short game is always what holds him back, and it could make it harder to actually win. Compared to the rest of the field, he may be in the upper half of the field in putting, and I truly think he’s only facing 40-ish golfers that I can realistically see at being longshot winners.
As always, be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop tool to make sure you’re getting the best available number, this is an important factor in being a long-term winner! Good luck this weekend.
