Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Happy FTN Launch Day!
For those of you that are trying to dive into golf, I will be posting my DraftKings “core plays” for DFS every week. This will be focused around what I’ll be doing for my five main lineups, plus my max-entry builds for contests like the Millionaire Maker. I’m going to focus on a few core guys and dive deep into why I’m using them. These are playerss I’ll be using in 40-50% of all my lineups.
For tournaments with 200 to 1000 people, I’ll be rocking about five main lineups, as I mentioned earlier. I’ll also be doing another 145 lineups in the Milly Maker. Throughout most of those lineups, I decided to go with a balanced core. And this week, I'm rocking with four golfers. This is who I'm putting my trust in:
Justin Rose ($9,700)
This is a golfer that I hated using before the restart because he seemed to constantly burn me. He was struggling with his irons and he couldn’t seem to piece together his elite form from previous years. But since the restart, he has turned in a dominant performance and a missed cut. Am I worried about him reverting back to his old ways? No, and the reasoning is behind his strokes gained since golf has returned. I’m focusing on strokes gained tee-to-green, where he sits top 5 since the restart. Rose is also towards the top of the rankings in bogey avoidance, which is always a plus on this course. He seems to have changed his game for the better, and this course sets him up to be very successful for the upcoming weekend. Lock me in some Rose!
Jon Rahm ($10,900)
Listen, I understand that Rahm hasn’t been his dominant self since the restart, but he’s Jon Rahm. He’s one of the best golfers in the world and just shouldn’t be priced under $11,000. For an elite golfer, ownership suggests he won’t be in many lineups this weekend. If that’s the case, I love his leverage for this event. Rahm has struggled in strokes gained from tee-to-green, but we can’t ignore how good of a golfer he is. Rahm is one of the most consistent guys on the tour, so I’m banking on him returning to form this weekend.
Harold Varner III ($7,500)
Varner has been one of the hottest golfers on the planet since the restart. He has been one of the top players in bogey avoidance, strokes gained tee-to-green and ball striking. At this price, Varner is my favorite value play for this tournament. My only fear is that he might garner more ownership than I’d normally like.
Billy Horschel ($7,500)
One of my favorite things about PGA DFS is that people tend to remember the chalky golfers that burned them. Considering that’s the case, they tend to not own that particular golfer the next time around. Well, Billy Ho is the chalk that hurt us a few weeks ago. He hasn’t made the cut in the two tournaments since the restart, so I’m hoping this lowers the ownership on him. Ultimately, it boils down to him being unlucky since the restart. There is no reason for his modest price tag, as he is still one of the better golfers across the board in statistics like bogey avoidance and strokes gained. I understand he’s cold coming into this, but you have to have short-term memory and trust in the stats for Billy Ho!
Honorable mentions – Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000), Joel Dahmen ($7,700), Patrick Cantlay ($10,600), Matt Kuchar ($8,500), Max Homa ($7,100)
Be sure to check out my favorite bets of the week over at FTN Bets!
