Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
PrizePicks offers a different way to play fantasy sports than simply building a lineup of different golfers on a salary. There are different categories of props and matchups, which are not often offered anywhere else. I’m going to go through a few plays of mine for the Tour Championship.
PrizePicks has birdie matchups, fairways hit, greens in regulation, score and occasionally scoring on set holes on the course. These props are setup for single-round action allowing you do adjust as you go and get more information as the tournament progresses. Occasionally, such as for majors, PrizePicks will offer “holes played” which is basically picks golfer to make or miss the cut, in which case the props will take place over the first two rounds.
If you have never played on PrizePicks or what more background, I highly suggest reading this article by FTN’s Tyler Loechner on how it works. It’s a great breakdown of the site works.
Tour Championship Picks
- Rory McIlroy UNDER 67.5
- Corey Conners UNDER 68.5
When I run simulations for these, it’s not often I find myself on multiple unders, but I think it’s because of my projection for potential Round 1 scoring, which may be lower than what the market thinks it will be. McIlroy has been under this number 8 of his last 12 rounds at East Lake and I went with just the last three years since the landscape of golf has been changing and I didn’t want to capture older scoring (although most numbers appear close to the same). Overall, he’s been under the number 14/32 in eight trips (back to 2012). The current state of his game and what appears to be solid weather, I think we’re being offered a solid number that McIlroy has a great chance to eclipse more often than not.
As for Corey Conners, we don’t have quite the same sample from this course, but he performed well in my simulations and in eight career rounds at East Lake he’s gone under 68.5 a total of two times. His form is unknown during those events; however, he was probably playing ok considering he made the Tour Championship but currently I think he’s playing as well or better than he ever has and sets up well for the course. His putting can be a concern, but it’s greatly improved over the years and he’s actually an above average putter now on Tour. It’s still a weak point that can keep him from winning but more than capable to take advantage of his superb irons and roll in birdies. He’s consistent and doesn’t often make huge numbers which should go a long way in beating this number.
