Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
PrizePicks offers a different way to play fantasy sports than simply building a lineup of different golfers on a salary. There are different categories of props and matchups which are not often offered anywhere else. I’m going to go through a few plays of mine for the Scottish Open.
PrizePicks has birdie matchups, fairways hit, greens in regulation, score and occasionally scoring on set holes on the course. These props are setup for single round action allowing you do adjust as you go and get more information as the tournament progresses.
If you have never played on Prize Picks or what more background, I highly suggest reading this article by FTN’s Tyler Loechner on how it works. It’s a great breakdown of the site works.
Scottish Open Round 1
Currently on PrizePicks, they are offering birdie or better matchups, strokes, and birdie or better. I decided to look through my simulations for an edge for round one and decided to go with a couple of birdie or better matchups. Perhaps after the first round we can dive further into the other categories if we learn a little about how the course will play this year, so for now I’ll avoid the other categories.
Birdie or Better Matchups
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.0 OVER Ryan Fox
- Will Zalatoris 0.0 OVER Harold Varner III
The separation in talent between Matsuyama and Fox is sizable in my ratings, but it would be poor to not take note of the form Fox has been showing. The issue is that it has been against less than stellar competition, and in the between all of his great DP World Tour finishes is a US Open missed cut and a 58th at the PGA Championship. Yes, he can make a lot of birdies, but so can Hideki and I will side with the sizable talent advantage, which often works out to more birdies.
Zalatoris and Varner are close on the scale, but still a decent lean toward Zalatoris. Both make more birdies than the field on average, unadjusted for the field, and when adjusted, Zalatoris makes almost 1% more than Varner. This isn’t as large of a difference as Matsuyama and Fox, but once again I’m taking a golfer who makes more birdies than his opponent, and is overall the better golfer.
