PGA PrizePicks for the 3M Open

PrizePicks offers a different way to play fantasy sports than simply building a lineup of different golfers on a salary. There are different categories of props and matchups, which are not often offered anywhere else. I’m going to go through a few plays of mine for the 3M Open.

PrizePicks has birdie matchups, fairways hit, greens in regulation, score and occasionally scoring on set holes for the course. These props are set up for single-round action, allowing you to adjust as you go and get more information as the tournament progresses. Occasionally, such as for majors, PrizePicks will offer “holes played,” which basically picks golfers to make or miss the cut, in which case the props will take place over the first two rounds.

If you have never played on Prize Picks or want more background, I highly suggest reading this article by FTN’s Tyler Loechner on how it works. It’s a great breakdown of how the site works.

3M Open Selections

For Round 1 action, I am going to focus on the “strokes” category, in which I’ll be picking golfers to score better or worse than the posted number of strokes. I decided to roll here for a few reasons, one being if my Round 1 scoring averages are closer to being correct than PrizePicks, I could be in line for a nice day.  

I looked back through the rounds over the last three years, particularly last year, and the scoring average was roughly 70.3 strokes/round, with an average field strength. There were some much easier rounds in previous years, but they also had rounds averaging in the 70s. The weather (currently) is also looking a bit windy, so between that and the high-risk factor of water on this course, the volatility is also higher, with a tail toward worse scores. I’ve picked out a few golfers who haven’t been playing well, and in my simulations were on the high side of missing their prop. It unfortunately looks like there will be less wind during Bill Haas and Jason Dufner rounds, but I still like the overs. 

Strokes Picks

• Bill Haas OVER 70
• Jason Dufner OVER 70

Neither of these guys are playing particularly well, and TPC Twin Cities has largely seen a de-emphasis on short game/putting and increased reward for good driving. Haas has been striking the ball poorly all year, relying on making putts for his few made cuts this season. He missed the cut here in 2020, firing a 71/72 over the first two rounds. Dufner hasn’t been any better and has an even worse short game than Haas. He also played this event in 2020, during which he shot better than 70 in three of four rounds. He was actually playing with some form coming into it last year, but I do not have high hopes for a repeat. 

For all of my PrizePicks throughout the week, check out our FREE PrizePicks Tracker.