PGA Outrights and Best Bets for the 2025 Valero Texas Open

You may be smelling the azaleas just around the corner, but there is still one more prep week before the 2025 Masters. It’s the Valero Texas Open, which is hosted at TPC San Antonio, so let’s jump in to talk about the course details and then see what outright bets and positional props stand out this week when looking for golf bets at the Valero. 

Course Fit

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a par 72 that plays to 7,438 yards. That sounds pretty average, but let’s dive in deeper. 

Off the tee we see narrow landing areas. We can tell they are narrow because the average distance from the center of the fairway is lower than Tour average here but the field finds just 52% of fairways, which is much lower than the Tour average of 60%. 

The par 5s are tough. With a going for the green rate under 45% at the course, it leads to more layups and wedges on approach instead of jamming it home from 200-plus yards. In fact, 27% of approach shots are from inside of 125 yards at this week’s course which is way higher than the Tour average of 21%. 

When I see a dramatic increase in wedge shots the course instantly goes into the short course bucket. 

What about the rough? It’s an interesting tale as the birdie rate from the rough is actually higher (21%) than the birdie rate from fairway (20%). That comes back to narrow fairways and wedges. It doesn’t mean that we want our golfers to be hitting it in the rough on every hole. However, when you look at the proximity stats from the rough here, it is much easier compared to the average Tour stop. Add it all up, and that tells us we have a low penalty for missing the fairway this week. 

Looking at the grass, we see another overseeded course so get your mind out of the bermuda gutter. A good chunk of the early season events have been played on overseed, so this isn’t anything new for them. 

Lastly, we have Texas weather this week with winds forecasted to be gusting in the mid-20s in three of the four rounds. Checking past performance in the wind should be helpful and also helps explain why around-the-green pops in the course fit model this week. It’s rare to play this event in calm winds. 

That leaves us with the split stats of short courses with a small penalty for missing the fairway, played on overseeded greens and in windy conditions. 

For our split stat search let’s look at top-heavy finish history on those split stats above and here are the names that outperform their baseline rates. 

• Patrick Cantlay
• Jordan Spieth
• J.T. Poston
• Gary Woodland
• Eric Cole
• Rickie Fowler
• Justin Rose
• Matt Kuchar
• Keegan Bradley
• Keith Mitchell

If I had to summarize this list in one word it would be scrappy. 

Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

With the superstars resting ahead of the Masters, we have a wide-open betting market with nobody in single digits this week. Should we pepper the top of the board, or look for a longshot? My favorite outright would qualify as a longshot so let’s talk about that. 

Valero Texas Open Free Golf Bets

Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (+210)

He’s gone more than two full seasons without a win but his irons are heating up in recent weeks so we could see that change in the near future. 

What stands out the most for me about Cantlay at the Valero is his ability to bully short courses. Over the last two years he’s posted top 10s in 58% of his starts on short courses, which is 12 percentage points higher than the next closest, Tommy Fleetwood. With more than a quarter of approach shots coming from inside of 125 yards this week, it certainly falls into my short course bucket. 

So, while the wins haven’t been piling up in recent years, he’s playing solid golf again and should be able to scrap his way into the mix this weekend at TPC San Antonio. 

Justin Rose to Win (90-1, one-fourth each-way for 5 places)

Check out FTN’s PGA Course Fit Model and you’ll notice that Rose is at field average or better in every strokes gained category this week. That doesn’t make him a good course fit by itself, but it does make him more adaptable to changing course conditions which is always valuable in Texas weather. 

Now the good stuff. Since the new year he ranks 10th in baseline performance in this field. He also has the highest week-to-week volatility over the last year, which means boom-or-bust results but it also means higher upside when he finds the A-Game. In fact I have his A-Game ranked fifth in this field right now so this is such a good price to get him at just 90-1. 

Matt Kuchar Top 20 Finish (+425)

Looking at his 2025 starts he is 0-for-5 when it comes to landing a top 20 but did manage a T21 at the Sony Open. His baseline rank sits at 36th in the field, over that time, so it’s not a big ask for him to outplay that just slightly. 

What really stands out is his history here at TPC San Antonio. He’s twirled top 15s in four of his last five trips. That’s good for a plus-8 course monster score and golfers in that bucket of history have gone on to post top 20s at a 49% clip. If we isolate it only to golfers with a similar baseline rating as his current skill then it’s still an impressive 42% rate of landing top 20s for course horses like Kuchar. 

So, using just his baseline stats we find a top-20 number for Kuchar that is slightly overvalued but when you factor in his long resume of good results at this week’s course, it flips to becoming undervalued in the market. I like to back at least one course horse each week and Kuchar is looking the most underappreciated at the moment. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays.