PGA Outrights and Best Bets for the 2025 Truist Championship

We are just a week away from the PGA Championship, but first let’s stop in Philly for the Truist Championship. Our main man, Alex Blickle, is a former winner at this week’s host course, so be sure to stay tuned in to all of his takes this week. That’s always the case, but even more so this week on a course he knows so well. 

Now let’s dig into that course and see what stands out. 

Course Fit

Philly Cricket Club is the host venue this week. This classical Tillinghast design was crafted in the 1920s, and it’s stood the test of time with the help of a 2013 Keith Foster renovation. 

Not particularly long off the tee, this par 70 plays to 7,119 yards from the tips. Yet there are only two par 4s that play under 420 yards, so it’s not a pitch and putt, either.

Off the tee, it’s relatively open with generous landing areas but plenty of fairways bunkers to navigate around, as well. In fact, this course has more total bunkers than any course on Tour although the total number of bunkers can be a misleading stat, since not all bunkers come into play and not all have the same penalty. It will be interesting to see how well those bunker placements play into the role of distance this week. 

On approach, golfers will really be tested this week. First, they have to avoid those bunkers mentioned above as most greens are protected by bunkers. Second, with many of the greens being heavily sloped and tiered, the effective landing areas become much smaller, similar to an Augusta National or Muirfield Village. I would consider Muirfield Village to be more of a comp since the course is pretty wet right now and the Memorial is often played in slop. 

For grass, we are in full Northeast territory with bentgrass fairways and greens while the fescue rough is prepped to be around 3 inches and likely much taller by Sunday evening. The PGA Tour does not throw around 13 feet on the stimp regularly so these are definitely on the quicker side of the green speed spectrum. 

What courses might it play similarly to? When I look for courses that are exposed off the tee with speedy and undulated greens with cool-season turf then courses like Muirfield Village, Augusta National, Riviera, Torrey Pines and Detroit GC come to mind. Or the US Open rota in general is probably a good comp. 

With soft conditions early in the week, it becomes tougher to imagine this being a truly tough test in terms of overall scoring. Yet, it’s still a par 70 and if they are able to tuck some pins then golfers should still be challenged by the tricky green complexes and the vast number of bunkers. 

Using our Splits Stats data over the last two years we can look at courses that are exposed off the tee, courses with fast greens, and courses with bent-poa greens. Here are the names that overperform most when playing courses like Philly Cricket Club: 

• Joe Highsmith
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout
• Ryan Gerard
• Sam Stevens
• Si Woo Kim
• Sepp Straka
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Rory McIlroy
• Will Zalatoris
• Daniel Berger

This list screams Steady Eddie with strong striking skills but Alex has pointed out why distance could play more of a role than most people think. That would leave Rory and Stevens as key standouts from the list above. 

Head over to the FTN PGA Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Rory does not show the same statistical separation from the field that we saw last week with Scheffler, due to the field strength. Yet, you have to pay a similar outright price (+450) due to his stellar 2025 form. 

That shows up in our betting model as well, with Rory being about half as likely to win this week as Scheffler was last week before the start of the CJ Cup. What names stand out below McIlroy? Here are some of my favorites. 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 Truist Championship

Will Zalatoris Top 20 Finish (+200)

I’ve been more pessimistic than most in his post-surgery analysis, but I’ve noted recently that’s he’s trending up in the stats I like to look at and the market is not juicing his prices like they used to. 

Sure, he withdrew before his home event last week in Dallas, but without any inside knowledge we don’t know how much of that was just precautionary or not wanting to play three straight weeks with the PGA Championship on deck and Philly Cricket being a much better warmup than TPC Craig Ranch. 

So, for a +200 price I will gladly take his ball-striking this week, needing just a top-20 finish to pay that tag. 

Sepp Straka to Win (35-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

As Alex talked about in Pro v Pro this week, he expects distance to be important but around-the-green play to matter less than usual. Straka doesn’t have the distance, but his main weakness is around-the-green play. Everything else is top class for the Austrian. 

Straka is 16th in strokes gained accuracy in this week’s field and second in approach. That is a good recipe for big-finish potential. He won the Amex and finished T5 at Bay Hill this year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him contending again this week. 

Daniel Berger Top 10 Finish (+250)

He’s doing everything so well this year. I’ve talked about this plenty in recent events, but his confidence is sky high again, and it’s shown on the results page. He arrives with eight straight finishes inside of the top 30. 

He’s driving it on a string right now, so while he doesn’t have the carry distance you might want this week, he is the type of golfer that will still be able to hit more club with confidence without worrying about blasting one OB. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays throughout the week from Alex Blickle and me. I already have a fourth play that I will load in there now.