First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Welcome to one of the best weeks on Tour! This is a week known for its appeal to the casual fan due to the party atmosphere of No. 16, but make no mistake — this is an awesome golf course we have for the WM Phoenix Open. It’s challenging with a ton of high-leverage shots, so it’s never short on drama. Plus, it’s the kind of course fit model we often crush with in DFS.
Course Fit: The 2025 WM Phoenix Open
Driving short game = happy Alex. This is my favorite kind of course fit model since it leans into our strongly held belief that off-the-tee performance is the foundation to good golf, plus has the added benefit of emphasizing a skill (around-the-green play) that most of the industry overlooks.
Hot Takes for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open
1. Scottie Scheffler is going to be more heavily rostered than anything we’ve seen before in PGA DFS
There’s a genuine chance Scheffler gets to 70% in small-field SEs. Is he worth it at that rostership? Maybe — he is more likely to finish in the top five than any other golfer is to finish in the top 20. That says a lot. However, he was clearly rusty last week and fading him probably doesn’t hurt you unless he wins. We’re not factoring in any rust and have his win probability at 23%, so I think I’ll be fading him in my lineup this week, but don’t quote me on that just yet. I want to see what the final rostership update has in store for him.
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