NBA Betting Show Wed Jan 8th
Sam Choudhury
Dane Martinez
Prop God
What a way to kick off the 2025 season!
The GPP Scores wasted no time re-asserting themselves as a dominant force in the PGA DFS industry and I love what we’re seeing from them for this week, too. For an introduction (or refresher) to the GPP Scores, here’s some content you can check out:
Don’t feel like watching a 15-minute video? No problem, the GPP Scores can be summed up like so:
DFS is complicated. We need to consider price, rostership, projection, floor and ceiling for every player. GPP Scores combine all of that into one metric that tells us if the player is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) or over-rostered (negative GPP Score). Consequently, they are just as effective at identifying “good chalk” as they are at finding the low-rostered slate-breaker.
The GPP Scores are perfect for PGA because PGA is volatile and it’s extremely easy to define “failure” (a missed cut). It can be difficult for our human brains to comprehend the idea that who we don’t play is often as important as who we do play, but the GPP Scores also understand this (using a really chalky player means passing on the potential opportunity to leverage the field if that player fails).
In the end, the best lineups should make us feel at least a bit uncomfortable. And that’s where hot takes come in. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
Course Fit: The 2025 Sony Open
Of course, the GPP Scores are only as effective as our projections are accurate. The entire concept of the GPP Scores crumbles if we can’t accurately measure how owned a player should be. Fortunately, our course fit model has proven to be an enormous edge. As most sites speculate about what will matter at a course, we take a data-driven approach to actually find out. Waialae, like Kapalua last week, puts a larger than normal emphasis on around-the-green play, but it’s worth noting that all five categories are pretty close to baseline this week.
Hot Takes for the 2025 Sony Open
1. It doesn’t matter if a guy played last week or not
Every single year, we get to the Sony Open and people tell on themselves. The reason guys who played at Kapalua the week prior have a good track record at the Sony Open is that they’re better players than the guys who failed to qualify for Kapalua. It’s that simple.
When asked, players will say it’s an advantage because they don’t want to make the interviewer feel bad for asking a dumb question, but these guys are all showing up prepared, just like they did last week. If having a week of competition was so necessary, how could last week’s players, many of whom hadn’t played competitively since August, go out and torch Kapalua to the extent that they did?
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