PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson has been a special week for us the last couple years. We’ve had back-to-back PGA DFS takedowns here as a result of the strong, unique Course Fit Model. This, of course, does not guarantee success of any kind this week, but I do feel extra confident in the cheapies the model points do after watching guys like Seonghyeon Kim tear it up as course fit specialists/GPP Score darlings.

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Course Fit: The 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

As Justin and I talked about on Pro v Pro, the soft conditions and grass-type changes could/should accentuate this model even further towards distance and around-the-green play, with the soft conditions also potentially increasing the predictive value of iron play (at the expense of accuracy off the tee).

I mentioned this last year, too, but this emphasis on distance and short game is uncommon for birdie-fests. Birdie-fests usually skew toward accuracy off the tee instead of distance, iron play instead of ATG, and putting. This is why our advantage has been so strong here. It’s one of the more predictive CF Models of the entire season and it basically works exactly counter to the industry’s expectations of what matters.

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Hot Takes for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

1. Taylor Moore is a fade

I don’t think I’ve ever made a fade the first hot take before, but holy cow is Taylor Mooore steaming. He’s now up to 27.3% projected SE rostership, which is just crazy. Even as the guy with the third-highest win odds, look at how his probability of success compares to his probability of failure:

Odds of a Top 10: 21.9%

Odds of a Missed Cut: 24.8%

That is not a guy worth massive rostership! I don’t think I’ll play Scottie Scheffler this week, but at least he’s five times as likely to win as he is to miss the cut. That’s the type of high-probability play that the contest sims might like even when the GPP Scores don’t. But Taylor Moore is just a really really bad DFS play at this rostership.

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PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Course Fit: The 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Hot Takes for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

1. Taylor Moore is a fade

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