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PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 American Express

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We’re off to a roaring start this PGA DFS season, thanks once again to the GPP Scores. For an introduction (or refresher) to the GPP Scores, here’s some content you can check out:

Don’t feel like watching a 15-minute video? No problem, the GPP Scores can be summed up like so:

DFS is complicated. We need to consider price, rostership, projection, floor and ceiling for every player. GPP Scores combine all of that into one metric that tells us if the player is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) or over-rostered (negative GPP Score). Consequently, they are just as effective at identifying “good chalk” as they are at finding the low-rostered slate-breaker.

The GPP Scores are perfect for PGA because PGA is volatile and it’s extremely easy to define “failure” (a missed cut). It can be difficult for our human brains to comprehend the idea that who we don’t play is often as important as who we do play, but the GPP Scores also understand this (using a really chalky player means passing on the potential opportunity to leverage the field if that player fails).

In the end, the best lineups should make us feel at least a bit uncomfortable. And that’s where hot takes come in. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.

Course Fit: The 2025 American Express

Welcome back to your annual reminder that Jon Rahm was wrong. Yes, this week is a birdie fest, but no, it’s not a putting contest. Rahm saw the golf course setup through his own eyes and his own game — he didn’t like that he couldn’t aim at pins, so he was consistently left with a lot of 10-ft birdie putts. What he failed to realize is that it’s only easy for him to consistently get those looks. And it takes ball-striking prowess to do so. Driving and around-the-green play are both super important this week.

However, I do think it’s worth noting that one of the reasons we see such big weights in the CF Model this week could be a result of consistently weak fields at this event. Directionally, however, it is still a very reliable model (meaning the industry will overlook the importance of distance and accuracy off the tee as well as short game prowess).

Hot Takes for the 2025 American Express

1. Right Back to Kurt Kitayama and Davis Thompson

Their GPP Scores say it all. Kitayama is once again one of the best ball-strikers in the field this week and would have contended in Hawaii had his iron play been anything close to his typical standard. Thompson was much further from a solid week, losing strokes with both his irons and putter for the second consecutive week. While that scares most people off him, I want to lean into his high week-to-week volatility, understanding that it can click for him at any point and he’s still driving the ball extremely well with a solid short game.

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