Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Another huge week! The PGA DFS takedowns continue to rain down on the FTN community, driven by the GPP Scores. Did all four hot takes hit with flying colors last week? You bet, accounting for five of the six players that appeared in all of our winning lineups. But, the hot takes basically just come from the GPP Scores, whose mission is simple — identify who is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) and who is over-rostered (negative GPP Score) by the field. From there, we simply play the under-rostered guys and fade the over-rostered guys.
Why does this work so well? Because PGA DFS is not like other DFS sports — the range of outcomes for most players is heavily skewed towards what we’d consider failure (like a missed cut) instead of what we’d consider a smashing success (like a top-five finish). Fading popular players who project well feels uncomfortable and unnecessarily risky at times, but as long as they’re more likely to fail than succeed, it’s typically the better choice. This is especially true because our ability to take down tournaments depends not only on our players doing well, but everyone else’s players doing poorly. In other words, we want to embrace the discomfort and leverage those in the industry who are trying to “play it safe” in a sport that offers no such thing.
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