Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Tour Championship brings with it a tiny field, a not-so-great course fit model and weird DFS pricing. While none of that is super exciting on its own (in fact it’s all a bummer on its own), it does create a unique enough challenge that I’m excited to find the edges.
Course Fit: The 2024 Tour Championship
The small field sizes hurt the CF Model in two ways — obviously, the first issue is that we get a much smaller sample size than most courses since 30 guys play per year instead of 120. However, there’s also an issue that stems from a smaller talent gap than at most events. The result is a model that looks pretty terrible (only one skill is more predictive than usual), but at least that means it’s unique. Specialists for East Lake thrive off the tee from an accuracy perspective and benefit from the lack of short-game signal. Yes, I just described Viktor Hovland.
Hot Takes for the 2024 Tour Championship
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