Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There is so much volatility in PGA DFS, and it often pays to go against the grain. You need to do it in the proper ways though, not just throwing in the lowest projected golfers and calling it “unique.” There are ways to be unique without sacrificing expected value. Building around that idea, here are some hot takes for the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.
1. SCHtack the top of the board
When looking at one-year event results, there are just three golfers who have posted 13-plus adjusted strokes gained in more than 20% of their starts. They are Hideki Matsuyama (26%), Xander Schauffele (34%) and Scottie Scheffler (51%).
That 13 strokes gained target is the number that would result in an expected podium finish in this week’s event. If you took a balanced approach and plugged in the top six golfers priced between $7,500 and $9,000 then you’d get 63% combined podium rate which is just 12% higher than Scheffler by himself.
Considering we have a no-cut event this week, I think it’s a great idea to bank some of this outlier upside at the top of the board. That means we should load up on at least one of Scheffler and Schauffele in all lineups and heavily consider Scheffler and Schauffele together in top-heavy constructions.
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