Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The golf world may think of the Rocket Mortgage Classic as a down week, but not me! We have dominated these types of fields in DFS this year, and I see no reason why this week can’t be more of the same. The Course Fit Model is strong, the pricing is weird but gameable, and the GPP Scores are telling a clear story of how we should attack the slate.
Speaking of the GPP Scores, their mission is simple – identify who is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) and who is over-rostered (negative GPP Score) by the field. From there, we simply play the under-rostered guys and fade the over-rostered guys.
Why does this work so well? Because PGA DFS is not like other DFS sports – the range of outcomes for most players is heavily skewed toward what we’d consider failure (like a missed cut) instead of what we’d consider a smashing success (like a top-five finish). Fading popular players who project well feels uncomfortable and unnecessarily risky at times, but as long as they’re more likely to fail than succeed, it’s typically the better choice. This is especially true because our ability to take down tournaments depends not only on our players doing well, but everyone else’s players doing poorly. In other words, we want to embrace the discomfort and leverage those in the industry who are trying to “play it safe” in a sport that offers no such thing.
Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
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