Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Another great week at FTN! Shout-out to all the big wins from subscribers, including Hamhock’s DraftKings World Golf Championship seat. Once again, it was all about the GPP Scores, be it on the main slate or Round 4 showdown. Their mission is simple — identify who is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) and who is over-rostered (negative GPP Score) by the field. From there, we simply play the under-rostered guys and fade the over-rostered guys.
Why does this work so well? Because PGA DFS is not like other DFS sports — the range of outcomes for most players is heavily skewed towards what we’d consider failure (like a missed cut) instead of what we’d consider a smashing success (like a top-five finish). Fading popular players who project well feels uncomfortable and unnecessarily risky at times, but as long as they’re more likely to fail than succeed, it’s typically the better choice. This is especially true because our ability to take down tournaments depends not only on our players doing well, but everyone else’s players doing poorly. In other words, we want to embrace the discomfort and leverage those in the industry who are trying to “play it safe” in a sport that offers no such thing.
Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
Course Fit: The 2024 RBC Canadian Open
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