Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got a fun one this week! Despite the on-paper similarities between this course and last week’s Detroit GC, the Course Fit Models are polar opposites. This week’s model also deviates from the industry’s expectation of TPC Deere Run, giving me similar vibes to that of Craig Ranch. Hopefully the resulting GPP Scores are every bit as successful as they were that week.
Speaking of the GPP Scores, their mission is simple – identify who is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) and who is over-rostered (negative GPP Score) by the field. From there, we simply play the under-rostered guys and fade the over-rostered guys.
Why does this work so well? Because PGA DFS is not like other DFS sports – the range of outcomes for most players is heavily skewed toward what we’d consider failure (like a missed cut) instead of what we’d consider a smashing success (like a top-five finish). Fading popular players who project well feels uncomfortable and unnecessarily risky at times, but as long as they’re more likely to fail than succeed, it’s typically the better choice. This is especially true because our ability to take down tournaments depends not only on our players doing well, but everyone else’s players doing poorly. In other words, we want to embrace the discomfort and leverage those in the industry who are trying to “play it safe” in a sport that offers no such thing.
Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
Course Fit: The 2024 John Deere Classic
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