PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

This week of PGA DFS is going to take a bit more artistry than usual. A questionable course fit model and surprisingly tame weather mean we should be a little less reliant on the GPP Scores than usual, though they still paint a clear picture for how we want to attack the slate.

Speaking of the GPP Scores, their mission is simple – identify who is under-rostered (positive GPP Score) and who is over-rostered (negative GPP Score) by the field. From there, we simply play the under-rostered guys and fade the over-rostered guys.

Why does this work so well? Because PGA DFS is not like other DFS sports – the range of outcomes for most players is heavily skewed toward what we’d consider failure (like a missed cut) instead of what we’d consider a smashing success (like a topfive5 finish). Fading popular players who project well feels uncomfortable and unnecessarily risky at times, but as long as they’re more likely to fail than succeed, it’s typically the better choice. This is especially true because our ability to take down tournaments depends not only on our players doing well, but everyone else’s players doing poorly. In other words, we want to embrace the discomfort and leverage those in the industry who are trying to “play it safe” in a sport that offers no such thing.

Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.