Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
What a run it’s been in PGA DFS in February. Three top 3% single-entry finishes including a huge takedown, all in one month! Without question, the new GPP scores (also discussed in the lineup review linked above) have played an enormous role in our success, and they will play a role in this week’s hot takes, as well.
PGA DFS continues to be its own animal, different from all other DFS sports in numerous ways, but none more important and relevant than the fact that 99% of players (this week Rory McIlroy is the only exception) are more likely to fail each week (missed cut) than deliver a ceiling performance (defined as a top-five). We don’t want to fear this randomness, we want to harness it and use it to our advantage by playing aggressively, leveraging all of the people who seek comfort in their builds in a sport that offers no such thing.
Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
Course Fit: The 2024 Cognizant Classic
I love this course fit model. The way you should interpret the numbers above is like so:
Driving distance is 73% more predictive than usual at PGA National. Our proprietary strokes-gained: driving accuracy metric is 13% more predictive than usual here, as well. We continue to harp on this concept on Pro v Pro — when you get to a course with tons of high-leverage shots, the field runs to approach play, but it’s actually more about driving the ball well and putting yourself in the best position for the high leverage shots.
Mark Broadie, in Every Shot Counts, made the counterintuitive finding that the best putters on Tour make fewer putts from six feet than the worst putters on Tour make from five feet. This is the same concept — the worst iron players will make fewer mistakes after a great drive than the best iron players after putting themselves behind the 8-ball off the tee. The fact that play, both on and around the green, is also more predictive than usual here is an added bonus. We are sure to find some contrarian players who project extremely well with this CF Model.
Hot Takes for the 2024 Cognizant Classic
1. Lock Rory McIlroy into 100% of your lineups
Does this count as a hot take? Maybe not, but don’t worry — they’ll get spicier as we go. Whether you’re playing 1 lineup, 20 lineups, 50 lineups or 150, I recommend playing Rory in all of them. Simply put, his range of outcomes isn’t just better than everyone else’s, it’s unrecognizable to anyone else’s.
Remember that point earlier about how ceiling outcomes are less likely than failures in PGA DFS? Not for Rory this week. According to our model and simulations:
- Win odds: 16.1%
- Top-five odds: 39.7%
- Missed Cut odds: 11.4%
No other player has top-five odds within ten percentage points of their odds to miss the cut, yet Rory is more likely to win than miss the cut. Read that again!
Rory has the highest GPP Score by a mile and his GPP Score would be positive (meaning he’s under-rostered) all the way up to an ownership projection around 45%, which we currently don’t see him sniffing.
Disclaimer: I will probably end up hand-building one or two lineups without him after generating my full MME set with him locked into 100% of lineups. Not as a hedge, but because I love a handful of $9k players, as well.
2. It’s Min Woo Lee Week
Here’s Min Woo’s projected SG profile:
He’s the second longest in the field behind Rory and significantly more accurate off the tee than he gets credit for (he’s lost strokes off the tee exactly once since last April, do you really think that would be possible if he was inaccurate?).
Min Woo has yet to have a typical short game or putting week this season, and consequently his results have left a lot to be desired. It’s the perfect buy-low opportunity on a player oozing talent on a course that fits him perfectly.
3. Robert MacIntyre is the best value play for the second consecutive week
MacIntyre is:
- 23rd in expected strokes gained
- 13th in top-five odds
How is this possible? He’s one of the most volatile players on Tour. Remember, while most of the field runs away from this volatility, we choose to harness it, knowing that volatility works in both directions. MacIntyre has access to ceilings that others in his price and talent range simply do not as a result of this volatility. Whether he misses the cut or delivers a second consecutive top 10, the process is correct. If his ball striking is anywhere near as good as it was in Mexico, I like our chances.
By the way — Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee and Robert MacIntyre also happen to be the current No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 in our GPP Scores.
4. Eric Cole is a fade
Cole is eighth in our expected strokes gained, so what makes him a fade? DFS theory, plain and simple. One concept I talked about in the Lineup Reviews I did this week is the idea that I find it easier to make a great lineup in weeks where most lineups are bad than to make the perfect lineup in weeks where everyone’s lineup is good. In other words, I want to win the low-scoring weeks. In Mexico, three of the seven most popular plays missed the cut and only Stephen Jaeger was truly worth rostering. My hope is that this week is a similar story, with Rory being the only good chalk.
We’re projecting Cole to be in around a quarter of single-entry lineups, which makes him someone I want to leverage. And it’s not just about what I hope will happen, it’s mathematically sound. Cole is among the least volatile players on Tour and therefore has just a 10% chance of finishing in the Top 5. He has nearly a 30% chance, however, of missing the cut (largely due to the high leverage shots creating extra variance at PGA National). If you think he’s going to do well, go bet him — he’s not worth the rostership.
