Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As this tremendous PGA season winds to a close, I find myself with mixed feelings about the playoffs. Do I like the smaller events without a cut? No. Do I feel like “playoffs” make sense in a sport like golf where everybody is playing everybody each week instead of just one team at a time? Also no. And yet, we see some great golf on great courses from the world’s best players. So what’s not to like?
Plus, I have two $4,444 tickets this week, so from an excitement standpoint I’ve got everything I need. Including the GPP Scores and a Course Fit Model derived from some admittedly obsessive behavior from Josh and myself. Oops!
On Pro v Pro, Justin and I discussed the need to stick to your process when you have the good fortune to be able to take shots at higher stakes, so that’s exactly what I plan to do — lean heavily on the GPP Scores, just like I do every week.
Course Fit: The 2024 BMW Championship
Once again, check out Pro v Pro if you haven’t already for a lengthy course fit discussion. Here are the cliff’s notes:
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- The two dominant characteristics of this golf course are its elevation (and length) and the fact that it’s designed by jack Nicklaus
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- We consequently ran the course fit models for courses at elevation, Muirfield Village (Nicklaus) and other Nicklaus designs, as well as Corales and Augusta based on similar characteristics
In fact, the Augusta comparisons are incredibly easy to see in this course breakdown narrated by Jim Nantz. The culmination of all this analysis is an expected increase in the predictive values of distance, accuracy, and around-the-green play. The more I look at the course, the more I see the similarity to Augusta in both the greens and the way that you’re sometimes forced to miss above the hole, so it wouldn’t shock me if putting ends up more predictive than usual, as well. We could be in for a treat at Castle Pines.
Hot Takes for the 2024 BMW Championship
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