Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
One of the most fun aspects of betting on golf is the weekly opportunity to find edges all the way down the odds boards trying to pick winners.
This week, I have narrowed down two longshots that I think the market is not giving a fair glance at for taking the trophy Sunday in the PGA Tour’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Patrick Rodgers
+10000, DraftKings Sportsbook
This is not the Rodgers you thought you would be potentially backing this time of year (sorry, Aaron!), but alas, we have found a way to put money on a Rodgers with ties to California (by way of Stanford). That was just a long-winded dig at the Packers. However, I am looking to back Patrick Rodgers at Pebble Beach this week. He showed flashes during the fall, charging up a handful of leaderboards, and now we come to a course that puts little emphasis on driving and an extreme focus on approach through green.
The worry here is that along with his driving, the irons continue to be inconsistent, but with the short game a consistent advantage, it will not take a herculean effort from the fairway to put himself in position. Of course, it’s a stretch – that’s why he’s in the longshot write-up – but the course(s) should suit as he continues to pursue his first PGA Tour victory.
Kyle Stanley
+20000, DraftKings Sportsbook
His history at this event will dispute what I’m about to say, but it feels like this is a place Stanley could play well. His strengths are keeping the ball in play and an above-average approach, but he remains one of the worst putters on the PGA Tour. He plays difficult par fours above average and often takes advantage of par fives but simply can’t get out of his own way on the greens. Let’s hope watching another one of the tour’s worst putters, Luke List, win last week be a spark to his confidence (wishful thinking). Realistically, Stanley will need to hit greens at a much higher clip than the field. He’s going to need the extra looks at birdie since he will predictably miss most of them. He has managed to win twice on tour, once losing strokes putting – where there’s a will, there’s a way.
